GBP/USD falls to near 1.3050 due to less likelihood of an aggressive Fed rate cut
- GBP/USD depreciates as recent US jobs data reduced the odds of an aggressive Fed rate cut in September.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%.
- The upcoming UK labor market report could significantly influence market expectations regarding the BoE’s policy outlook in 2024.
GBP/USD extends its losing streak for the third successive day, trading around 1.3060 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The downside of the pair could be attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD), which received support as recent US labor data raised uncertainty over the likelihood of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 29.0%, down from 30.0% a week ago.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee remarked on Friday that Fed officials are starting to align with the broader market's sentiment that a policy rate adjustment by the US central bank is imminent, according to CNBC.
In the United Kingdom, investors are closely watching the employment data for the quarter ending in July, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. This labor market report could significantly influence market expectations regarding the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decisions for the remainder of the year.
Projections indicate that the ILO Unemployment Rate might edge down to 4.1% from 4.2%. Meanwhile, Average Earnings, including bonuses, are expected to slow to 4.1%, down from the previous 4.5%. A slowdown in wage growth could strengthen expectations for additional interest rate cuts by the Bank of England, as it may signal a potential easing of inflationary pressures in the services sector.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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