GBP/JPY rises to 199.50 due to rising concerns BoJ’s intent to raise interest rates further

• GBP/JPY advances to 199.50 as soft Japan’s CPI report raised doubts over BoJ extending the rate-tightening cycle.
• Japan’s inflation declines due to weak private spending.
• UK’s weak Retail Sales suggest that inflation will soften further.

The GBP/JPY pair moves higher to 199.50 in Friday’s European session. The cross rebounds after a short-lived corrective move to near 199.00 as Japan’s inflation declined again on April, deepening fears that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will take more time in raising interest rates further.

Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that annual National CPI excluding fresh food declined to 2.2% as expected from the prior reading of 2.6%. The core core index, which is BoJ’s preferred inflation gauge that strips off volatile fresh food and energy items decelerated to 2.4% from the prior reading of 2.9%. The CPI report also showed that weak private consumption led to softening of inflationary pressures.

Though inflation remains above BoJ’s desired target of 2%, investors are uncertain about steadiness in price pressures, which could limit the scope of BoJ’s rate-tightening plans.

Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling remains firm despite weak United Kingdom Retail Sales data for April. The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that monthly Retal Sales declined at a faster pace of 2.3%. Investors forecasted the economic data to have declined by 0.4% from the prior reading of 0.2%, revised to negative from a stagnant performance. Annual Retail Sales contracted by 2.7% after expanding at a pace of 0.4% in March, downwardly revised from 0.8%. Economists expected a decline of 0.2%. The Retail Sales report showed that sales at retail stores contracted due to the rainy season.

Weak UK Retail Sales data indicate that households are struggling to bear the consequences of higher interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE). This would force the BoE to start reducing interest rates earlier than what was previously anticipated.