US Dollar weakness inappropriate – Commerzbank

Data on the US labor market is gradually trickling in over the course of the week. The highlight is of course the labor market report for August on Friday. Tomorrow, one day later than usual due to the US public holiday on Monday, we will receive the ADP index, which is often used as a leading indicator for the non-farm payrolls, but does not really correlate well with them, Commerzbank’s FX Analyst Antje Praefcke notes.

US employments reports to be decisive

“We already get the number of job openings today, the ‘JOLTS Job Openings’, which provide an indication of how many jobs are unfilled, newly created or existing, and which companies are struggling to fill. The number of vacancies has fallen steadily since the peak during the pandemic, but has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels. In this respect, there are still many vacancies, even if the pressure to find employees has visibly decreased in recent quarters.”

“The labor market report for August is particularly important this time because the previous report four weeks ago gave rise to speculation that the Fed would have to cut rates faster and more sharply than previously expected due to fears of a recession. However, the market is currently only pricing in around 30 basis points for the FOMC meeting the week after next, which seems more realistic in view of the price and economic data than the 50 basis points that the market was pricing in after the publication of the July report.”

“A relatively weak labor market report on Friday could lead to notable USD weakness again. However, our economists expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Employment growth should be slightly higher again at 150 thousand. Today and tomorrow, the USD could see a bit of a back and forth due to the job openings and the ADP index, but without any particular direction, since Friday's report will be decisive. If it continues to show a solid situation on the labor market, major shifts in interest rate expectations for the near future and thus USD weakness are inappropriate.”