Gemini stock erases most IPO enthusiasm after sharp decline

Gemini’s stock has slid 6% further, extending its losses to 24% since going public. The crypto exchange launched by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss has seen its early IPO excitement fade as investors become cautious about its financial performance.

The sharp decline follows an initial surge after the company raised $425 million in its IPO, valuing the firm at $3.3 billion before trading began.

On its first day, GEMI spiked to $45.89 before closing at $32, 14% more than its offer price. However, since that high point, shares have dropped more than 34%, erasing most of the early enthusiasm from public market investors. Currently, the stock is trading at $30.42.

Analysts say that Gemini is overvalued

The slide comes as investors look more closely at Gemini’s financial health. The company reported a $283 million net loss in the first half of 2025, compared with a $159 million loss for all of 2024. Revenue growth has also slowed, making it harder for the stock’s high valuation to hold up.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue. This price-to-sales (P/S) multiple is often used to gauge whether a stock is expensive, meaning investors are paying 26 dollars for every dollar the company is expected to generate in sales this year. This makes its shares look expensive compared to other companies in the same industry and the capital markets sector as a whole.

In the capital markets, it shows how investors feel about the future’s growth potential, profitability, and security. This measure is especially important for businesses like Gemini Space Station that are still unprofitable and lack useful earnings data.

The P/S ratio is much higher than the average for the peer group (3.2) and the industry average (4). This shows that the market may be pricing in high growth expectations or not considering financial risks. It might be hard to explain such a high price in the short term without clear proof of steady revenue growth or higher profits. Hence, the fair value is $32.52, which means it is overvalued.

The broader crypto equity market is steady

The broader crypto equity market has remained more stable. Robinhood reported revenues of $989 million, up 45% year on year. This print exceeded analysts’ expectations by 7.4%. Overall, it was a strong quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts’ EBITDA estimates and solid user growth.

“We delivered strong business results in Q2 driven by relentless product velocity, and we launched tokenization—which I believe is the biggest innovation our industry has seen in the past decade,” said Vlad Tenev, Chairman and CEO of Robinhood. The stock went up 7.9% after reporting and currently trades at $114.61. However, it has been down 3% in the last week, currently trading at $116.39.

Coinbase reported revenues of $1.50 billion, up 3.3% year on year. It fell short of analysts’ expectations by 4.3%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ monthly transacting users and EBITDA estimates.

Coinbase delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. The company reported 8.7 million monthly active users, up 6.1% year on year. The stock went down 13.3% after the results and currently trades at $327.39. However, it has remained flat over the week

Also, the one-month return of Circle Internet Group is 11.48%, and its shares lost 17.04% of their value over the last three months. However, it is up 13% in the last week. Currently, it is trading at $135.75 per share.

Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.