XRP Drops Below $1.4 as Market Focuses on Non-Farm Payrolls: Can It Rebound?

TradingKey - XRP Briefly Drops Below $1.4! Non-Farm Payrolls Imminent—Can the Market Reverse?

On September 1, Ripple (XRP) continued to fluctuate below $1.4, up 2% intraday to temporarily trade at $1.37. Since surging on August 22, the price of XRP has continued to pull back, falling a cumulative 21% from its recent high of $1.7. Can the U.S. non-farm payrolls data to be released this Friday boost XRP's price to stop falling and rebound?

In theory, U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data serves as a bellwether for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decisions. If the labor market slows down, it will reinforce market expectations of rate cuts, encouraging capital inflows back into high-risk assets. Conversely, if the data is overly strong, it could delay the timeline for rate cuts, placing short-term pressure on tokens like XRP and BTC.

Global financial markets are at a critical juncture marked by the tug-of-war between the Fed's hawkish and dovish policy stances and a slowing labor market, making this week's upcoming non-farm payrolls data exceptionally crucial, as it will serve as a core catalyst directly influencing the Fed's mid-September interest rate decision and the trajectory of the crypto market.

Currently, the market generally expects an addition of approximately 58,000 jobs. While this forecast represents a slight improvement from July's sharp drop into negative territory, it remains overall at a historically low level; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at around 4.1%, stabilizing at a low level.

In addition, Bloomberg also holds an optimistic view regarding this NFP data, with its Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong writing that "the non-farm payroll report may show weakness, with even a certain probability of recording negative growth, which will have a crucial impact on the Fed's policy path."

If the data meets expectations—with job growth between 50,000 and 70,000 and the unemployment rate at around 4.1%—it would signal a soft landing for the economy. The Fed would lack an urgent reason for a policy pivot and remain in a data-dependent wait-and-see period, keeping the crypto market in its current range-bound consolidation and XRP trading between $1.4 and $1.7.

XRP price chart, Source: TradingView

However, if the NFP data comes in weaker than expected—with job growth below 40,000 or the unemployment rate rising above 4.2%—the labor market will cool rapidly, dampening the Fed's hawkish stance and fueling expectations of monetary easing. In this scenario, Bitcoin is expected to break through its recent resistance level of $83,000, and XRP could likewise breach its $1.7 resistance level.