Apple investors turn optimistic after weathering $800 million Trump tariff storm

Apple’s year finally caught a break. After months of getting pounded in the markets, the company’s stock is now crawling out from under a brutal tariff hangover. The damage was clear: a $800 million hit to its fiscal Q3 earnings and a 17% stock decline by August.

The pressure came straight from President Donald Trump, who blasted Apple repeatedly for building iPhones outside the U.S. and warned of more tariffs if they didn’t move production back home.

Everything changed on August 6. In a carefully staged Oval Office appearance, CEO Tim Cook stood beside Trump and dropped a number no one expected: $100 billion. That’s how much Tim said the company would invest into U.S. manufacturing.

Tim’s White House move helps calm tariff fears and lifts shares

By the time the market closed for the month, Apple’s shares had shot up 9.4%, its best month since June 2024. Wall Street took the signal as a truce. The fresh $100 billion commitment, combined with Apple’s expanded agreement with Corning, its longtime glass supplier, was enough to change expectations.

“The picture is a lot clearer from a tariff standpoint,” said George Cipolloni, a portfolio manager. “Apple was in Trump’s crosshairs, but Tim kissed the ring and now it no longer seems to be, which removes a headwind.”

Before the deal, Apple’s stock performance in 2025 had been a mess. Even after the August rally, shares were still down 9.3% for the year, making it one of the weakest performers in the Nasdaq 100. That fall was a sharp contrast from the company’s five-year run between 2020 and 2024, when its stock soared over 240%, putting it among the top 20 names in the entire index.

There were also doubts about Apple’s AI strategy. Sales growth wasn’t helping either. And the price tag on the stock remained steep. Even with all the losses this year, the shares were still trading at 29 times projected earnings. That’s well above the iPhone maker’s 10-year average of 21, and higher than the Nasdaq 100’s current multiple of 27.

Apple turns to AI upgrades as financial outlook improves

But Wall Street’s mood is shifting. Late last month, Apple posted its fastest quarterly revenue growth in more than three years. iPhone sales held strong, and China demand showed real momentum. That report helped push the earnings narrative back toward optimism. Still, the biggest hole remained AI.

Two weeks ago, Bloomberg reported that Apple is working on a total overhaul of its artificial intelligence products. The plan includes bringing robots into the ecosystem, revamping Siri to behave more like a human, and releasing a new smart speaker with a built-in display. The company is also in early talks with Google to use the Gemini AI model to power the new Siri.

“It seems like a lot of concerns have cleared,” said Irene Tunkel, chief U.S. equities strategist at BCA Research. “Between Apple giving a good outlook, the tariff situation getting better, and the company getting more serious about AI.” She added, “All those positives happened one after the other, which is the kind of thing that can give the stock another leg up. I think the momentum is just getting started.”

Analyst projections show the same trend. Apple’s 2026 earnings estimates have gone up by 2.1% in the past month. Revenue forecasts are up 2.9%. That kind of adjustment suggests investors are slowly warming back up to the stock, even if it’s not their favorite pick anymore.

But not everything’s been cleared. One major risk is still sitting on the table, a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Justice Department against Alphabet. That case directly threatens Apple’s annual $20 billion payout from Google for keeping its search engine as the iPhone default. If that exclusive deal gets struck down, that revenue disappears. Judge Amit Mehta in Washington is expected to issue a ruling this month. That decision alone could kill any rally.

Tunkel said the company still has appeal for investors who are rotating out of the high-flying names. “It’s hard to call Apple cheap,” she said. “But a lot of tech looks expensive, and Apple is a poster child for quality. If companies like Nvidia take a breather, Apple is a natural place for investors to rotate into.”

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