Spain Unemployment Change fell from previous 60.404K to -7.452K in February
Source Fxstreet
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Gold ends three-week slide at the $4,400 line — eight straight days of ETF inflows vs a 5% 10-year and a 100 dollarSpot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
Spot gold closed Friday at $4,378.39, up 0.84% on the day and about 0.8% for the week — its first weekly gain in four weeks — with the intraday high of $4,399.67 leaving it 33 cents shy of the $4,400 line. Gold ETFs have now logged eight straight sessions of inflows, but with the 10-year back above 5% and the dollar index near 100, here is what decides whether this is a reversal or a bounce.
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Brent edges toward $99 as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal — why the war-risk premium won't rebuildBrent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Brent crude rose 0.92% to $98.51 and WTI gained 1.15% to $93.51 after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But both benchmarks remain about 12% below their early-September highs, because supply never actually stopped. Hormuz flows ran at 33.7 million barrels this week, in line with the prior week, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restarted on September 22.
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.60% from 4.35% on Tuesday, after keeping rates unchanged at its previous two meetings
