Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered 2H26 with more momentum, keeping an October rate hike possible.

AUD/JPY halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 109.80 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of domestic Trade Balance data.

TradingKey - On Friday, October 2 (EDT), the U.S. will release its September nonfarm payrolls report, with markets focusing on whether job growth can sustain August's rebound and whether the data will

Australia's Trade Balance narrowed to A$495M MoM in August, followed a surplus of A$1,351M in the previous reading (revised from A$1,923M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.  

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 495M in August from previous 1923M

Australia Imports (MoM): 5.8% (August) vs -2.5%

Australia Exports (MoM) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.7% in July

US President Donald Trump unveiled a $200 billion investment plan from South Korea, $54 billion of which is slated to go to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska, Reuters reported on Thursday.

South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 52.3 to 53.9 in September

Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI meets expectations (54.1) in September

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the September monetary policy meeting, with the key findings noted below.   

Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to 24 in the third quarter (Q3) from 22 in the previous reading, weaker than the market expectation of 25.

Japan Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index below forecasts (36) in 3Q: Actual (35)

Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index below expectations (25) in 3Q: Actual (24)

Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex came in at 11.3% below forecasts (12.3%) in 3Q

Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI above expectations (49.3) in September: Actual (49.6)

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “Inflation is still too high, about 3%, new data doesn't alter outlook,” he said at a Q&A at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos climbed from previous -171.53B to -5.57B in August

The Fed Governor Lisa Cook crossed the wires on Wednesday and said she is committed to returning inflation to the Fed’s 2% goal while preserving the strength of the labour market.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde said that France’s debt situation is “serious at 120% of GDP and without a path to lowering it,” at an interview with La Croix.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel said that high costs are passed through to consumers more quickly when the economy is resilient.

Russia Unemployment Rate meets forecasts (2.2%) in August

Colombia National Jobless Rate rose from previous 8.1% to 9.1% in August

United States EIA Gasoline Stocks Change increased to -1.684M in September 25 from previous -1.686M

Societe Generale analysts note China has unveiled targeted support measures, including a 25bp cut to the PBoC’s PSL rate and expanded relending quotas for innovation, technology, agriculture and small businesses.

United States Chicago PMI came in at 58.8, above expectations (51.2) in September

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid notes that China’s latest PMI data show a broad-based pickup in activity. The private-sector RatingDog Manufacturing PMI and official manufacturing PMI both strengthened, with the latter returning to expansion. Services and non-manufacturing indices also improved, lifting the composite PMI above 50 and signaling a more supportive backdrop for Chinese equities and growth.

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) below forecasts (5.3%) in 2Q: Actual (5%)

Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index, climbed to 3.3% (preliminary) in September from 2.9% in August, Germany's Destatis reported on Wednesday.

India M3 Money Supply: 16.6% (September 14) vs previous 16.7%