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Singapore Dollar: Range-bound trade outlook against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD remains range-bound, with intraday action expected between 1.2905 and 1.2940 as recent price moves provided no fresh directional clues.

Source  Fxstreet1783698720
European Central Bank: One more hike base case as data soften – OCBC

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the European Central Bank's (ECB) June minutes justified the latest rate hike while keeping flexibility on future moves. Since then, Oil prices have fallen sharply and June Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised on the downside.

Source  Fxstreet1783695850
China: Growth slowdown with uneven momentum – DBS

DBS economists Radhika Rao and Mo Ji project China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to slow from 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2.

Source  Fxstreet1783694592
Canada: Labour market steadying with modest improvement – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Nathan Janzen notes that Canadian labour markets showed further signs of stabilisation in June, following a stronger improvement in May. Employment rose modestly, while per-worker conditions improved and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.5%.

Source  Fxstreet1783693196
India: Inflation risks stay skewed higher – ING

ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song project India’s consumer inflation to edge up to 4.2% year-on-year in June, while wholesale inflation moderates to 9%.

Source  Fxstreet1783691812
Mexico: Softer CPI backs dovish Banxico case – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts Dev Ashish and Brendan McKenna note that Mexico’s June inflation data surprised to the downside, with headline and core measures moving close to Banxico’s target range.

Source  Fxstreet1783690715
Qatar launches mediation effort with Iran to ease tensions over Strait of Hormuz

Qatar has dispatched negotiators to Iran for meetings with Iranian officials in a renewed diplomatic effort to de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations to continue, according to a Reuters report citing a source familiar with the matter.

Source  Fxstreet1783690168
New Zealand Dollar: Constructive outlook faces yield constraints – OCBC

OCBC strategists Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong note that the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed after stronger manufacturing data and hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) commentary reinforced expectations for further tightening.

Source  Fxstreet1783689626
Canada: Stable card trends support cautious optimism – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) analysts Abbey Xu and Rachel Battaglia report that June spending by RBC Canadian cardholders remained relatively stable, with core retail sales up modestly. Discretionary goods led gains, while essential spending including gasoline also contributed.

Source  Fxstreet1783687981
Equities: AI Boom risks and resilience – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists Dr. Jörg Krämer and Bernd Weidensteiner argue that the AI-driven investment surge in US high-tech and IT is substantial but not yet excessive compared with past booms.

Source  Fxstreet1783686883

Canada Net Change in Employment came in at 18.2K, above forecasts (10K) in June

Source  Fxstreet1783686603

Canada Unemployment Rate came in at 6.5%, below expectations (6.6%) in June

Source  Fxstreet1783686602

Canada Building Permits (MoM) climbed from previous -7.6% to -1.7% in May

Source  Fxstreet1783686601

Canada Participation Rate remains unchanged at 65% in June

Source  Fxstreet1783686601
United States: New methodology trims Core PCE inflation – Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo economists Tom Porcelli and Sarah House discuss upcoming BEA changes to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index that will affect data from 2021 onward.

Source  Fxstreet1783685829

Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (-0.1%) in May

Source  Fxstreet1783684804
Canadian Dollar: Labour data seen softening – TD Securities

TD Macro Research expects the Canadian labour market to soften in June, with employment unchanged versus market expectations for a 10k gain after May’s 87.8k surge.

Source  Fxstreet1783684181

India Bank Loan Growth: 18.6% (June 15) vs 17.7%

Source  Fxstreet1783683070

Portugal Global Trade Balance: €-8.705B (May) vs previous €-8.563B

Source  Fxstreet1783677685
US Dollar: Geopolitics faded as markets eye rates – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes the US Dollar (USD) has been broadly unchanged despite renewed Middle East tensions, as Oil has retraced and risk sentiment improved.

Source  Fxstreet1783676344
BoJ will likely revise 2026 GDP forecast higher in Q2 report

According to sources, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may revise up the fiscal 2026 economic growth forecast in the quarterly report due in July. The BoJ is expected to report that it will keep focus on the risk of inflation overshooting the central bank’s target, Reuters reports.

Source  Fxstreet1783674987

Greece Industrial Production (YoY) increased to 3.9% in May from previous 2.1%

Source  Fxstreet1783673991
Federal Reserve: No near-term hikes signalled – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Christoph Balz and Bernd Weidensteiner interpret recent data and Fed communications as pointing to stable policy rates in coming months.

Source  Fxstreet1783673518
Equities: Risk of renewed rates volatility – BNY

BNY strategist David Tam warns that a renewed rise in rates volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index, could pressure U.S. equities, particularly technology and growth segments. He says investors may need to reduce equity exposure, shorten portfolio equity duration and favor defensive sectors.

Source  Fxstreet1783672552

Italy Industrial Output w.d.a (YoY) below forecasts (1.3%) in May: Actual (1.1%)

Source  Fxstreet1783670453

Italy Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) below forecasts (-0.2%) in May: Actual (-0.3%)

Source  Fxstreet1783670453
Japan’s Kihara says that specifics of monetary policy to be left to BoJ

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said during the European trading session on Friday that the specifics of monetary policy to be left to the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Source  Fxstreet1783670258
US Dollar: AI-driven imports reshape trade – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says AI-related capital-goods imports are structurally widening the US trade deficit. Strong foreign demand currently helps finance the gap, but weaker confidence in the United States (US) AI (Artificial intelligence) investment story could create risks for the Dollar.

Source  Fxstreet1783669503

Austria Industrial Production (YoY) climbed from previous 0.6% to 0.7% in May

Source  Fxstreet1783666811
Equities: Tech and chips drive relief rally – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists say a strong semiconductor rally and lower oil prices helped lift global equities. The S&P 500 rebounded as investors rotated from defensive sectors into growth and cyclical stocks, while gains in Micron and SK Hynix reinforced confidence in the AI investment cycle.

Source  Fxstreet1783666517
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