Commerzbank’s Vietnam update highlights rising inflation and a narrowing trade deficit, with strong manufacturing-led imports and resilient exports. The bank notes elevated CPI and external deficits limit scope for aggressive easing, but robust activity persists.

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that a stronger US Dollar (USD), higher Oil prices and rising global yields are pressuring Asian currencies and assets.

HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that accelerating AI adoption, resilient growth and broadening earnings are supporting global equities into Q4 2026. The bank has recently added exposure to global stocks, favouring the US and Asia, while keeping sector diversification.

ABN AMRO’s Chief Economist Germany, Alexander Krüger, notes that German economic output is rising and the bank has raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% and for 2027 to 1.1%.

The US Dollar (USD) has started the week on the back foot, rapidly leaving behind Friday’s uptick and refocusing on the downside.

TD Securities expects US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the prior Oil shock lingers and the Iran conflict poses stagflationary risks. GDP is forecast to end 2026 at 2.1% Q4/Q4, with unemployment around 4.2%. The bank assigns a 25% probability to a US recession over the next year.

Societe Generale’s UK team notes weakening housing demand as mortgage approvals fall to late-2023 lows, while business lending remains firm and wage expectations show limited second-round effects.

TD Securities economists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that the Bank of Canada adopted a more hawkish tone, emphasizing upside inflation risks even as core inflation stays subdued.

ABN AMRO economists Bill Diviney and Jan-Paul van de Kerke expect Eurozone growth to remain resilient despite a renewed energy shock, supported by German fiscal spending and solid underlying activity.

Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan expect United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to have slipped slightly in July after strong growth earlier in 2026. They forecast a modest monthly contraction led by services and production, with construction only marginally higher.

TD Securities projects August Core CPI at 0.19% m/m and 2.3% y/y, with services driving gains and core goods slightly negative. Headline CPI is seen at 0.37% m/m and 3.4% y/y on higher energy and food.

Societe Generale economists Anatoli Annenkov, Michel Martinez and colleagues expect Euro area inflation to stay above target beyond 2027, with headline inflation projected to peak near 3.7-3.8% and core around 2.7-2.8%.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong expects Asia ex-Japan (AxJ) currencies to start the week on a selectively cautious footing after renewed US–Iran tensions lifted Brent above US$96.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to deliver another 25 bps hike this week, taking the policy rate to 2.50%, supported by above-target Eurozone inflation and a firmer growth outlook.

TD Securities notes that a data-light week in Canada will keep attention on CAN-US trade tensions as Canadian countertariffs take effect. The US has already signalled higher tariffs on Canadian vehicles from January 1.

Societe Generale analysts highlight that Brent has resumed a steady advance after defending its 200-DMA in August and crossing a multi-month descending trend line.

According to the Financial Times, Saudi Aramco’s Oil facilities in Jizan were hit on Monday. The extent of the damage is currently being assessed, the newspaper reported.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that Czech August CPI matched expectations and CNB forecasts, keeping inflation within target and allowing rates to stay unchanged on 17 September.

RaboResearch notes that the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument provides a backstop for Eurozone government bonds during stress not justified by fundamentals.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to prove subdued enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold in September, with the CPI-to-PCE translation also pointing to contained underlying inflation.

United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey signaled in a scheduled speech during the European trading session on Monday that the government will continue focusing on maintaining fiscal discipline, in an attempt to contain higher borrowing costs.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes Brent crude trading near USD 97 as renewed US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East energy flows.

DBS Group Research strategist Philip Wee highlights growing downside risks in CHF/JPY after the cross failed to re-enter its February–July 198–204 range and slipped to 193.

EUR/CAD remains stronger for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.6080 during European hours on Monday.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that United Kingdom (UK) July Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected flat month-on-month, is unlikely to alter Bank of England (BoE) expectations.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, September 7:

NZD/USD depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 0.5880 during European hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure from cautious sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy outlook.

DBS strategist Philip Wee argues that downside risk in EUR/JPY is less straightforward than in CHF/JPY.

Danske Research notes that a strong US labour market report increased expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, pressuring global equities. The S&P 500 declined while the Stoxx 600 posted a small gain, with cyclicals outperforming and rate-sensitive sectors underperforming.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy CEE data and policy calendar, with Hungary’s inflation seen edging up, the National Bank of Poland and Central Bank of Turkey expected on hold, and Romania’s inflation falling sharply on base effects.