S&P Global will release the July flash Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) for the United States (US) on Friday. These surveys of top private-sector executives are seen as an early indicator of the country’s economic health.

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According to preliminary data, the United Kingdom (UK) S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) arrives above 50.0 in July, a figure that separates expansion from contraction, after declining in June. The Services PMI lands at 51.8.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 7% came as a negative surprise, particularly after June inflation rose and Brent crude moved above USD 100 per barrel.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights that escalating US-Iran tensions and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have driven Brent crude above US$100 for the first time since May, with Asia trading near US$101.

German flash HCOB Composite PMI returns to the expansion trajectory in July after declining in June. Preliminary figures show that the overall business activity expanded to 51.2. The Composite PMI was seen arriving at 49.8 from 49.5 in June.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell sharply as surging Oil prices and stagflation fears weighed on risk assets. Weak post‑earnings reactions in Tesla and Alphabet dragged the Mag 7 index to its biggest daily loss since 2025.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects Russia’s central bank to keep its key rate at 14.25%, despite political and economic pressure for a cut. Surging inflation expectations, higher Oil and commodity prices, and accelerating Consumer Price Index (CPI) argue against easing.

GBP/JPY remains calm after six days of losses, trading around 218.20 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross holds its ground as the British Pound (GBP) receives support from the release of stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Friday that he doesn’t see any hard evidence of second-round effects, but the central bank will act if the inflation outlook deteriorates. 

USD/IDR depreciates after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 18,020 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the pair may see upward momentum following Bank Indonesia's (BI) unexpected decision to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% in July.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Brent has broken above $100/bbl as Middle East tensions escalate and supply risks mount. They highlight threats to flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as disruptions to Kazakh exports.

Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) climbed 1.0% month-over-month (MoM) in June after rising by 1.2% in May, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday.

Asian stock markets fell across the board on Friday as intensifying US-Iran conflict and US President Donald Trump's new tariffs temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. Japan’s Nikkei N225 is down nearly 3% while South Korea's KOSPI declined over 4.5%, underperforming broader markets.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said on Friday that the central bank is in a good position to respond to surging energy prices.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama delivered a verbal intervention on Friday, saying that authorities prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange.

The United States (US) will impose new tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct US President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. 

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it is attacking Iran for the 13th consecutive night, the Guardian reported on Friday. The US military stated that this action aims to hold Iran accountable and diminish threats from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to commercial shipping.

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Friday.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.7% YoY in June, compared to the previous reading of 1.5%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

The preliminary reading of Australia's S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 51.7 in July versus 51.5 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global showed on Friday.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/CNH to remain in a narrow consolidation between 6.7680 and 6.7780 intraday after a lacklustre session.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan reports that Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate at 5.75%, surprising expectations for a hike, as recent Rupiah stabilization allowed policymakers to stay on hold.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect USD/SGD to remain directionless in the near term, with intraday trading confined to a tight 1.2900–1.2925 band. Over the coming weeks, the pair is seen oscillating in a broader 1.2875–1.2955 range as earlier downside momentum has faded.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay reports Bank Indonesia kept the BI Rate at 5.75%, choosing targeted capital-flow incentives over further tightening to support the Indonesian Rupiah. BI cut hedging costs and improved macroprudential liquidity tools, echoing RBI’s playbook.

TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz analyze upcoming BEA methodology changes to United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation for portfolio management, legal services, and computer software & accessories.

Nordea strategists Jan von Gerich, Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen note that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.25% but signalled further tightening. They still forecast three additional 25bp hikes, now at a quarterly pace, taking the deposit rate to 3% by March 2027.

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks note that market pricing for Fed hikes has risen alongside higher Oil prices and US-Iran tensions, but they judge a July move as unlikely.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.