United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes USD/CHF reversed sharply from 0.8382 to close at 0.8286, with intraday price action expected to edge lower toward 0.8245 while staying above 0.8225.

Societe Generale strategists expect a hawkish hold from Poland’s National Bank of Poland (NBP) at 3.75% and no change from Romania’s central bank NBR at 6.50%, as inflation and political uncertainty constrain policy flexibility.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in a speech in Sorrento, Italy during the European trading session on Monday that the impact of energy shock-driven inflation has yet not fed into wage growth.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/GBP in light of divergent fiscal and political risks in Europe and the United Kingdom (UK).

On Monday, we’ll get the latest read on the US services sector when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) publishes its September gauge. Consensus points to a marginal uptick to 55.7 from August’s 55.4.

United Kingdom S&P Global Services PMI above expectations (51.7) in September: Actual (52.1)

United Kingdom S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 52, above forecasts (51.7) in September

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warns of moderate economic growth due to higher long-term rates. Regarding inflation, Lane said that medium-term inflation expectations are still de-anchored.

Italy Public Deficit/GDP above forecasts (0%) in 2Q: Actual (2%)

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects higher September inflation across Czech Republic and Hungary, with Czech data seen backing a November rate hike. He forecasts unchanged policy in Poland and Romania, maintains a bearish regional FX bias, and favours the Czech koruna, which he sees as less tied to global narratives and likely to outperform more dovish CEE currencies.

USD/IDR gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 17,950 during the early European hours on Monday.

Danske Research Team reports that global equities ended last week only 0.5% lower despite a rapid rise in yields, with tech and cyclicals outperforming. Over the past two weeks, equities are up 0.4%, while volatility has been largely confined to bonds. The team argues strong earnings growth explains equities’ resilience versus the rates shock.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategist Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD recovered to 1.3238 after failing to extend Thursday’s decline, but intraday gains are expected to stay within 1.3215–1.3265.

The EUR/GBP cross attracts some sellers to around 0.8475 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The Euro (EUR) softens against the British Pound (GBP) as fiscal concerns in France in the wake of a steep bond market rout stoke contagion fears in the Eurozone.

Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said on Monday that the government will control the annual debt issuance amount appropriately while scrutinising the economy, prices, tax revenues, interest rates, debt-servicing costs, and market developments. 

Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The EUR/USD pair comes under intense selling pressure on Monday, breaking below the 1.1200 mark and hitting a fresh low since May 2025 during the Asian session.

Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said in a news conference in the Asian trade on Monday that there are no plans for a fresh release of crude oil from national reserves as the country had already released crude supplies, despite a G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels of diesel an

Munoz and Nir expect a relatively quiet US data calendar, with ISM Services likely slipping to 54.0 versus 55.0 consensus, modestly higher Jobless Claims, and a small decline in UMich Sentiment to 47.5. They note September payrolls moderated mainly on seasonal factors, while underlying labor-market strength and rising participation support a still-resilient backdrop.

NBC Economics and Strategy highlights that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 29K in September versus a 90K consensus, while the household survey showed a 406K employment surge and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Q2 real GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualized. The headline PCE deflator stayed at 3.4% and core at 3.0%, both below expectations due partly to methodology changes.

Crude oil exports from the Middle East exceeded pre-war levels in four of the seven days of the final week of September despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said on Monday that Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a major focus among central banks, including at BoJ monetary policy meetings.

GBP/USD inches lower after posting modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3240 during Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair is under downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gains strength ahead of the upcoming US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index release.

Russian Defense Ministry said that it would intensify attacks on Ukraine’s military and industrial facilities following a vow from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to double down on strikes against oil refineries, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6955 during the earlyAsian session on Monday. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data weighs on the US Dollar (USD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Traders await the release of the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report later on Monday. 

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the Middle East war that occurred over the weekend, which are expected to have a significant impact on markets in the upcoming week.

TradingKey - Following the announcement of the Fed's September interest rate decision, U.S. stocks fell in response. So why does a Fed rate hike cause U.S. stocks to fall?On September 16, the Federal

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in an interview with Fox Business, said that the labour market is steady and that “the inflation side of the Fed’s job is more important.”

TD Securities analysts characterize the upcoming September FOMC minutes as largely outdated given subsequent employment and PCE data. The minutes are expected to show disagreement over how much further tightening is needed, but broad consensus that policy should remain more restrictive.

Royal Bank of Canada analysts review Canada’s September labour report, the first full dataset since U.S. Section 338 tariffs took effect. They estimate around 0.4% of Canada’s GDP and employment is tied to tariff-listed US demand.