United States 10-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 4.538% to 4.58%

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses UK political dynamics, noting Burnham’s likely unchallenged path to becoming Prime Minister on July 20 and his popularity within Labour.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer but supported by a sharp repricing of Bank of England (BoE) tightening.

Societe Generale strategist Kunal Kundu expects India’s June 2026 headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation to print around 4.1% year-on-year, slightly above May’s 3.9% but still within the RBI’s tolerance band.

United States Wholesale Inventories registered at 0.1%, below expectations (0.3%) in May

Standard Chartered analysis by Christopher Graham and Saabir Salad discusses Andy Burnham’s stance against an early UK general election if he becomes prime minister.

United States (US) President Donald Trump stepped up his rhetoric against Iran on Wednesday on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit, according to comments cited by Reuters.

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Minutes of the June 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The Minutes should shed more light on the Fed’s hawkish hold delivered at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee reports that the New York Fed’s June Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1-year inflation expectations rising to 3.7%, with 3-year expectations at 3.3% and 5-year unchanged at 3%.

National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) strategist Alexandra Ducharme reports Canada’s merchandise trade surplus hit a four-year high in May as exports reached a record C$77.1 billion. Gains were driven by metal ores and non-metallic minerals, while energy exports declined.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the British Pound (GBP) has been a strong G10 performer this year, supported by sticky United Kingdom (UK) inflation, Bank of England (BoE) rate expectations and inbound M&A flows.

Francesco Pesole at ING discusses Euro resilience despite French political developments, including Marine Le Pen’s 2027 bid and expectations of an RN win.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that interest rate differentials are again driving the Dollar, with USD reacting strongly to weaker US data as markets reassess new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% through year-end, with easing delayed until policymakers gain confidence on inflation.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous 0% to -2.2% in July 3

France Current Account rose from previous €-0.2B to €-0.1B in May

TD Securities strategists preview the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, expecting more insight into the policy debate than provided by Chair Warsh’s press conference.

Geoff Yu at BNY highlights that client flows into United States (US) equities remain geared to inflation risk, even as direct inflation-hedge sectors see reduced inflows. BNY’s iFlow equity inflation style indicator shows a wide gap between inflation-sensitive flows and falling breakevens.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, said on Wednesday that the central bank “will keep all options on the table and decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis.”

Standard Chartered economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand assess India’s FY27 fiscal deficit outlook, highlighting how lower crude Oil prices reduce the risk of fiscal slippage to about 0.2-0.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) versus 0.5% earlier.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that recent Iranian strikes on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude from $72 to $76 per barrel and lifted US Treasury 2Y yields, but markets still see no return to full-scale war.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights EUR/SEK reclaiming its 200-day moving average and breaking above a base, signalling a short-term uptrend towards 11.11.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that June FOMC minutes may already be stale as weaker labour data and lower energy prices challenge the Fed’s hawkish dot plot. He sees OIS pricing as too aggressive, with rate hikes over-priced and a rate cut by March 2027 more likely than another hike.

ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Aluminium has extended gains after hitting a four‑month low, as lower prices attracted Chinese buying.

The offshore Chinese Yuan (CNH) is capturing market attention following a sweeping set of structural measures announced by the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to cement Hong Kong’s status as a global offshore hub for the Yuan. 

European Union (EU) Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas said during the European trading session on Wednesday that exchanges of fire between the United States (US) and Iran further complicate already fraught talks to end the war.

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027.

According to the Iranian State Media, Iran's Top Joint Military Command said, “Tehran considers any location that supports United States (US) attacks on Iran as its legitimate target.” However, there has been no official confirmation from other media outlets.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes Czech headline inflation fell to 1.5% year-on-year, below Czech National Bank (CNB) forecasts, with goods and energy prices soft but services still elevated.

Austria Trade Balance up to €-434.1M in April from previous €-563.3M