A Reuters poll revealed that the Federal Reserve is most likely to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year as it battles stubbornly high inflation that has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for at least 5 years.
BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights how China’s regulators and state-backed funds have stepped in to stabilize A-shares after global tech deleveraging hit domestic markets.
Societe Generale’s technical team notes USD/KRW failed twice to break above the June high around 1,561, triggering a deeper decline towards the 200-day moving average. The pair is now testing this key MA, with next support at a multi-month ascending trend line near 1,464/1,461.
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim and Dr. Henry Hao note that Singapore’s June non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth moderated to 20.7% year-on-year but remained strong, with electronics exports surging on AI-related semiconductor demand.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong see USD/IDR easing modestly from recent highs, helped by S&P’s rating affirmation and Bank Indonesia’s prior tightening. However, elevated Oil prices, lingering fiscal concerns and still-soft portfolio inflows limit further IDR gains.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang expects USD/SGD to stay confined to tight ranges in the near term, with intraday price action lacking clear momentum.
United States (US) President Donald Trump said during a press conference at the White House on Tuesday that Washington could intensify its military campaign against Iran, including possible strikes on the underground Pickaxe Mountain site.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Saurav Anand highlights rising inflation risks for India as deficient monsoon rains and persistent El Niño threaten food output. The report notes sowing is down and reservoir levels are low, with pulses, vegetables, sugar and oilseeds most exposed.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that Gilts and the Pound saw turbulence as new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signalled flexibility on fiscal rules and appointed John Healey as Chancellor.
Societe Generale strategists note that softer June inflation in Canada has stalled the Canadian Dollar’s (CAD) rebound from 1.4250 toward 1.40 against the US Dollar (USD). Failure to reclaim the 50-day moving average around 1.3991 and new US tariffs on Canadian goods complicate the mean-reversion.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight a softening Aluminium supply picture. Global primary output fell in June on both monthly and yearly bases, even as first-half production stayed broadly stable.
Private-sector hiring in the US has further cooled in early July. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 16.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending July 4.
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut rates by 25bp to 5.75%, continuing its easing cycle despite recent FX and rates pressure.
Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose expects the central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) to cut its base rate by 25bp to 5.75%, continuing June’s easing cycle.
EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) strategist Frantisek Taborsky at ING says regional data in Poland and the Czech Republic are constructive, but Central and Eastern European (CEE) FX remains driven by US–Iran tensions and Oil prices.
German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at 26.3 in July, beating the estimates of 18.0 and the June reading of 10.5.
A statement from United Kingdom (UK) lawmaker Darren Jones, an ally of former prime minister (PM) Keir Starmer, that the funding source of tax cuts on energy bills, as promised by new PM Andy Burnham, was already unfunded, has pushed political stability optimism under the scanner.
USD/JPY gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around 162.60 during the European hours on Tuesday. Japanese banks will be closed due to Marine Day bank holiday.
Deutsche Bank strategists report the S&P 500 slipping for a third straight session as geopolitical uncertainty and higher US real yields pressure risk assets.
ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent retreated below $90/bbl as hopes for US–Iran de-escalation offset rising supply risks. They highlight reports of a proposed 10‑day ceasefire and ongoing large divisions between the US and Iran.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur discusses how persistent high Oil and energy prices complicate the Federal Reserve’s stance, with markets only modestly pricing in further tightening.