News

Chinese Yuan: Range trade persists, downside risk intact against US Dollar – UOB

UOB’s Senior Technical Strategist Quek Ser Leang expects USD/CNH to remain confined in a tight near-term range, with the Dollar likely to trade between 6.7950 and 6.8100. Despite easing upward momentum, UOB still sees scope for a move toward 6.8300 while 6.7900 holds as strong support.

Source  Fxstreet1782764431
ECB’s Lagarde: ECB can raise rates to address inflation without fear

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivered an introductory speech at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 on Monday, warning that the Eurozone is likely to face more frequent shocks in the coming years that could move inflation away from the ECB’s target.

Source  Fxstreet1782760855
US Treasury yields steady as Fed bets offset Oil calm

US Treasury yields steadied on Monday during the North American session, as tensions in the Middle East halted the decline in crude Oil prices, while money markets are still pricing in at least 34 basis points of Federal Reserve tightening in 2026.

Source  Fxstreet1782759787
Singapore Dollar: Consolidates near recent lows against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD slipped to 1.2929 before recovering, with intraday price action still seen as range trading. For the day, the pair is expected to stay between 1.2930 and 1.2960.

Source  Fxstreet1782757055
Asian FX: Vulnerable under risk-off and stronger Dollar – OCBC

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong expect Asian FX to start the week on a softer footing as AI-led equity losses and renewed US–Iran tensions keep the Dollar bid.

Source  Fxstreet1782744975

United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index down to 0 in June from previous 0.4

Source  Fxstreet1782743414
Chinese Yuan: China slowdown weighs on CNY against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Dr. Henry Hao highlight that China’s industrial profit growth slowed to 21.1% year-on-year in May, with weaker consumption and investment pointing to easing momentum.

Source  Fxstreet1782742320
June Payrolls Face Early 'Major Test': Fed Rate Hike Probability This Year Soars, Global Assets Face Liquidity Shock

TradingKey - Due to the US Independence Day holiday on July 3, the June non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for Friday, will be released early on July 2.This data, widely regarded as a baro

Source  Tradingkey1782739807
Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of  Sintra this week. The European Central Bank (ECB) Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks.

Source  Fxstreet1782739626
Eurozone: Heatwaves add macro risk for growth – ING

ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski warns that recurring European heatwaves are becoming a structural drag on Eurozone growth. He cites academic and ECB research showing measurable losses in output and higher food inflation linked to extreme temperatures.

Source  Fxstreet1782736766
Euro: Cyclical Dollar strength versus EUR risks – Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/USD within a broader reassessment of Dollar drivers. Foley notes that even if the US Dollar (USD) is in long-term decline, cyclical forces can still support it.

Source  Fxstreet1782735150
Euro area: Oil-driven inflation relief but ECB wary – Commerzbank

Guntermann at Commerzbank notes that while Oil prices near pre-war levels reduce tail risks for growth, inflation and rate volatility, Euro area inflation is not falling fast enough to dispel European Central Bank (ECB) hawkishness.

Source  Fxstreet1782733449
UK’s Burnham promises of Labour’s policy continuation

United Kingdom (UK) Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has stated during the European trading session on Monday that his plans after getting the leadership position would be consistent with Labour’s 2024 manifesto.

Source  Fxstreet1782731734

India Cumulative Industrial Output increased to 5.1% in May from previous 4.1%

Source  Fxstreet1782729493

India Industrial Output rose from previous 4.9% to 5.1% in May

Source  Fxstreet1782729167

India Manufacturing Output declined to 5.5% in May from previous 6.2%

Source  Fxstreet1782729158
CEE FX: Pressure returns with stronger Dollar – ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky notes that a stronger Dollar and lower Oil have led markets to outprice most rate hikes in Poland and the Czech Republic, adding pressure on regional FX.

Source  Fxstreet1782727122

Belgium Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.4% in June from previous 4.08%

Source  Fxstreet1782725401

Belgium Consumer Price Index (MoM): 0.3% (June) vs -0.08%

Source  Fxstreet1782725400
Iran and Oman say they hold sovereignty over Strait of Hormuz

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has stated in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Tehran has concluded a meeting with Oman in which review current issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply.

Source  Fxstreet1782724564

Eurozone Consumer Confidence meets expectations (-17.7) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782723602
Euro: Sintra tone and CPI support gains against US Dollar – ING

ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the European Central Bank’s Sintra forum to maintain a broadly hawkish stance, with President Lagarde unlikely to signal a dovish shift ahead of June CPI.

Source  Fxstreet1782723570

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (YoY) declined to 4.3% in May from previous 4.5%

Source  Fxstreet1782722199

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) below forecasts (£6B) in May: Actual (£4.6B)

Source  Fxstreet1782721864

Portugal Consumer Confidence: -25.9 (June) vs -27.1

Source  Fxstreet1782721820

United Kingdom M4 Money Supply (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.2%) in May

Source  Fxstreet1782721819

Portugal Business Confidence up to 2.8 in June from previous 2.7

Source  Fxstreet1782721819

United Kingdom Mortgage Approvals registered at 56.21K, below expectations (63K) in May

Source  Fxstreet1782721806

United Kingdom Consumer Credit: £1.662B (May) vs previous £1.859B

Source  Fxstreet1782721806
ECB: Sintra signals and sticky hike premium – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Guntermann highlights the Sintra forum as a key event for European Central Bank (ECB) communication, with Lagarde’s opening speech and a heavyweight policy panel midweek.

Source  Fxstreet1782721739
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