RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Nathan Janzen argue higher Oil prices from current supply disruptions are unlikely to trigger a major Bank of Canada policy shift. Past rate cuts in 2015 reflected a structural Oil shock, unlike today’s geopolitical spike.

A Reuters poll showed on Wednesday that all 64 respondents said the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would keep rates unchanged at 0.75% next week.

USD/INR remains flat after paring daily losses on Wednesday as the Indian Rupee (INR) received support from lower oil prices after reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) may release record oil reserves to stabilize markets.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Wednesday escalated its operations against the United States (US) and Israel. IRGC announced the start of targeting the enemy's technological infrastructure in the region.

AUD/USD extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair advances as the Australian Dollar (AUD) gains support from growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike next week.

Japan Producer Price Index (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in February: Actual (-0.1%)

Japan Producer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (2.1%) in February: Actual (2%)

The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said late Tuesday that the degree of uncertainty and volatility is very surprising. Lagarde added that the central bank will take the necessary measures to control inflation.

The US Central Command said in a statement that US forces eliminated multiple Iranian naval vessels, including 16 minelayers operating near the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported on Wednesday. 

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman highlights that strong Chinese trade data and a firmer PBoC daily fix are supporting the Chinese Yuan.

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen highlights that strong China exports and imports in early 2026 are supporting growth, with clear diversification away from the US toward ASEAN, EU and regional partners.

MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan argues Asian currencies have been buffeted by Iran-related headlines as Asia’s heavy reliance on Middle East energy and Strait of Hormuz flows magnifies risk.

Standard Chartered economists maintain their call for Bank Indonesia to cut its policy rate by 25 bps in Q2-2026, but note that higher Oil prices and inflation now tilt risks toward a prolonged hold.

United States 3-Year Note Auction up to 3.579% from previous 3.518%

ING economists Peter Virovacz and Zoltán Homolya note that Hungarian inflation fell to 1.4% year-on-year in February 2026, below consensus and their own optimistic forecast. Core inflation dropped to 2.1%, but rising energy costs, fuel prices and a weaker Forint threaten this benign picture.

Nordea’s Chief Analyst Torbjörn Isaksson highlights that Swedish GDP and production fell in January, driven by sharp declines in construction and manufacturing, while household consumption and services still grew.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research Team expects the ECB to keep rates on hold through 2026, assuming Brent and Dutch TTF futures fall back towards pre-conflict levels.

Nordea’s Senior Macro and FX Strategist Sara Midtgaard notes that higher Oil and gas prices plus Norges Bank’s daily NOK purchases have recently supported the Norwegian Krone, with a risk that EUR/NOK briefly drops to 11 in March.

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) came in at 4.09M, above expectations (3.89M) in February

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) climbed from previous -8.4% to 1.7% in February

National Bank of Canada’s (NBC) Tim Parsons and Taylor Schleich note that volatility in Bank of Canada (BoC) expectations has risen with the Iran conflict, with markets briefly pricing 2026 hikes instead of cuts.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) fell from previous 7% to 6.2% in March 6

Deutsche Bank strategists Shreyas Gopal and Sanjay Raja note that UK front-end rates have seen the largest hawkish repricing among G10 central banks, removing earlier dovish expectations for the Bank of England.

BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage notes that money markets scale back expectations for European Central Bank tightening.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 15.5K (February 14) vs 12.8K

HSBC’s Willem Sels highlights that Oil remains the primary driver of global markets, with recent Brent swings between USD83 and USD120 underscoring extreme uncertainty.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes highlights the resilience of the Australian Dollar despite higher Oil prices and Australia’s heavy reliance on imported petroleum. He notes that speculative AUD longs have not been unwound and that AUD/USD has barely slipped since late February.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that markets have sharply reduced the crude Oil war risk premium after comments from President Trump, triggering a pullback in the Dollar and a rally in global stocks and bonds.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, commented on the bank’s monetary policy outlook in the face of the war in the Middle East.

Greece Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous 3.9% to 5.3% in January