Private-sector hiring in the United States (US) shows tentative signs of improvement in early August. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, private employers added an average of 9.5K jobs per week in the four weeks ending August 1.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes Brent crude has rallied above $91 as the US–Iran Strait of Hormuz standoff persists. Haddad argues crude Oil is driving the war narrative and expects price swings to steer escalation risks.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke argues that European gas storage will depend on higher LNG imports over winter, as current inflows of 8 bcm per month would see storages trend toward 0% by March.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Majed Al-Ansari, said the mediators are waiting for Oman and Iran to reach a bilateral agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost 20% of global energy supply, before returning to broader United States (US)-Iran talks.

Chris Turner at ING highlights low volatility weighing on the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY), with investors increasingly favouring franc funding to avoid potential Yen intervention. Short CHF/JPY is seen as a carry-positive way to express a Yen view.

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng reviews Thailand’s latest macro data, noting Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.9% year-on-year in 2Q26 from 2.8% in 1Q26, bringing 1H26 growth to 2.4%.

Standard Chartered’s Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam analyze slowing loan growth in China despite stable real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and recent reflation.

TD Securities’ Macro Research team, led by Oscar Munoz and Molly Brooks, projects a stronger US August CPI profile. Headline CPI is seen rising 0.39% month-on-month, with gasoline and food inflation rebounding.

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment arrives at 34.2 in August, beating the estimates of 30.0 and the July reading of 26.3.

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday.

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that while the United Kingdom (UK) economy has exceeded expectations, the labour market remains stagnant, with the jobless rate stuck at 4.9% and payrolled employees falling.

NZD/USD depreciates after two days of losses, trading around 0.5880 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) holds ground on safe-haven flows amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that rising oil prices are reinforcing stagflation concerns and weighing on equities globally.

Commerzbank analysts describe how the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) early closure of the FCNR(B) swap window follows strong FX inflows and rising liquidity costs.

The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9% in the three months to June after reporting 4.9% in the previous reading, data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The data came in above the market consensus of 4.8%.

USD/IDR remains in the positive territory after experiencing volatility, trading around 17,900 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair continues to draw support from a weakening Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), driven by cautious domestic sentiment ahead of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) two-day policy meeting.

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is inching higher after three days of losses and trading around 99.60 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

US President Donald Trump said that he is not interested in renewing the expiring agreement with Iran, Bloomberg reported on Monday. 

TD Securities’ Alex Loo highlights that China’s July data showed weaker industrial production, modest retail sales and record-weak Fixed Assets Investment, reinforcing concerns about insufficient domestic demand.

US Treasury yields advanced on Friday during the North American session after reversing their course following the release of US Retail Sales data, which disappointed investors. Meanwhile, the lack of news from the Middle East kept Oill prices higher, amid fears of a resumption of hostilities.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep its policy rate at 5.75% for a second straight meeting after 100 bps of tightening since May.

United States Total Net TIC Flows: $133.5B (June) vs $132.2B

United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows registered at $172.7B above expectations ($151.4B) in June

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD remains under mild downward pressure after slipping to 1.2775 before rebounding. Intraday, the pair may retest 1.2775, but support at 1.2765 is expected to hold.

Rabobank’s Senior Macro Strategist Bas van Geffen describes Washington’s emerging carrot-and-stick approach to artificial intelligence, extending its Pax Silica framework.

According to ING’s Lynn Song, Chinese industrial production growth slowed more than expected in July but remains relatively resilient compared with other domestic indicators.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen note that Canadian inflation rose to 3% year-over-year in July, mainly on higher energy costs, while underlying measures like CPI-trim and CPI-median stayed near the 2% target.

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding note that China’s July real activity data showed weaker momentum, with estimated monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth dropping below 4.3% year-on-year.

DBS Group Research economist Ma Tieying revises Taiwan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast up to 11.6% from 9.4% and 2027 to 5.6% from 4.5%, noting that growth will exceed 10% and mark the strongest pace in more than three decades.