TD Securities’ Oscar Munoz argues that Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication strategy has undermined market confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting resolve.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights Switzerland’s stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and resilient economy, yet notes EUR/CHF remains in a gentle uptrend since late May.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke explains that Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.25% and still signals that further tightening may be necessary as inflation remains above target. However, upcoming data, especially August inflation, could prompt the bank to drop its year-end hike signal.

TD Securities strategists forecast Canadian Manufacturing Sales to fall 0.4% month-on-month in June, weaker than the market’s -0.1% call, mainly due to lower petroleum prices.

The University of Michigan (UoM) will release the preliminary estimate of August’s Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Rabobank strategist Elwin de Groot reports that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged, with markets initially reading the statement as dovish.

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks analyze the Federal Reserve’s decision to halt Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) after tapering from $40bn to $10bn per month.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that Japanese government support for an imminent Bank of Japan rate hike has reinforced market expectations rather than surprised them. Probabilities now favor a hike as early as September, with October fully priced and another move in December possible.

Societe Generale notes India’s headline CPI rose slightly to 4.45% year-on-year in July, backing the RBI’s decision to keep policy unchanged. The central bank has reportedly been active in FX markets as the trade deficit widened.

Danske Research Team notes that Norges Bank left its policy rate at 4.25% and kept a tightening bias despite weaker summer inflation. They still expect one final hike in September, though the odds have fallen and the decision is now finely balanced.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that United States (US) equities, led by the S&P 500, have reached new record highs as softer inflation data and lower Oil prices reinforce expectations that the Fed can stay on hold.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that September Bank of Japan (BoJ) hike expectations have risen sharply, but the Japanese Yen (JPY) has reacted only modestly.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise interest rates as soon as September and is likely to hike more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, three sources familiar with its thinking told Reuters.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground for the second successive day, trading around 99.90 during the Asian hours on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.3495 during the early European trading hours on Friday.

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

USD/IDR loses ground after three days of losses, trading around 17,880 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders remain cautious ahead of President Prabowo Subianto’s 2027 budget address to parliament later in the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.90 in the Asian trading hours on Friday. The DXY weakens following cooler US inflation data.

Latvian officials announced the activation of an air threat alert in the southeastern part of the country, near the border with Russia and Belarus, Reuters reported on Friday.

The USD/JPY pair loses traction to near 159.45 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. Softer US inflation reports and fears of currency intervention weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY).

New Zealand Business NZ PMI declined to 54.3 in July from previous 59.7

The Chicago Fed President, Austan Goolsbee, who is a voter until 2027, acknowledged that the disinflation process is evolving and said so late in the North American session.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that USD/IDR has rebounded after a near 2% month-to-date pullback, with external factors such as elevated Oil prices and US rates remaining key drivers.

Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous 1.9% to 2.1% in July

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note USD/SGD stayed largely unchanged around 1.2805 on Tuesday, with momentum still flat.

Standard Chartered’s Christopher Graham notes that UK growth remained resilient in Q2, with GDP rising 0.4% q/q, driven by private consumption and business investment while government spending dragged. He expects a slowdown in H2, with growth easing to 0.2–0.3% q/q in Q3 and Q4.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that in-line United States (US) inflation and a modestly lower probability of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike have left the US Dollar (USD) broadly range-bound while risk assets continue to rally.

TD Securities reports that United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for June surprised to the upside at 0.3% m/m, driven by a strong services sector expanding 0.4% m/m. May was revised to flat, leaving June as the only positive month in Q2.

ING’s Adam Antoniak explains that Poland’s July CPI rose mainly due to higher fuel prices after VAT normalization, removal of the fuel cap and increased Oil costs following the US–Iran MoU collapse.