On Wednesday, the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) revealed that private analysts reduced their inflation expectations for the end of 2026, and updated estimates for economic growth, the exchange rate and the level of the interbank lending rate.

Societe Generale analysts observe that USD/KRW stalled after meeting interim resistance around 1561 in June and now looks set to trade within a range. They see limited evidence of a large decline, with 1530 as initial support on pullbacks.

Speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking on Wednesday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem said that Canada’s economy remains soft, while inflation is still running clearly above target.

Commerzbank’s Thailand update says May data show broadly stable economic conditions, with exports still supported by global electronics demand but facing risks from US trade policy and regional manufacturing weakness.

Michael Wan at MUFG reports that China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data surprised on the upside, easing fears of imminent policy easing.

UOB’s Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD is consolidating after Monday’s dip, with intraday momentum flat and the pair expected to hold a narrow 1.2925–1.2955 band. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank keeps a neutral stance, projecting a broader 1.2870–1.2970 range.

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.

Russia Unemployment Rate down to 2.1% in May from previous 2.2%

At the ECB Forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh largely followed the script, offering little to change the market’s current view on monetary policy.

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish notes that Banco de la República delivered a larger-than-expected 75bp hike to 12%, reinforcing a restrictive stance as inflation and expectations stay well above target.

DBS' Senior Economist Radhika Rao with data support from Daisy Sharma, highlights that India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% year-on-year in 1Q26, slightly below the revised 8.0% in 3QFY26.

National Bank of Canada's (NBC) Kyle Dahms notes that the Canadian economy began Q2 on a stronger-than-expected footing, with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) boosted by energy, manufacturing and construction.

HSBC’s Willem Sels and Lucia Ku note that UK inflation remains above target but see risks as more balanced after the US-Iran interim peace agreement.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen notes that Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June, mainly on lower energy prices, while core inflation eased to 2.4%. The bank expects overall inflation to stay close to 3% in coming months.

United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index fell from previous 56.8 to 56 in June

United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 73, below expectations (79) in June

United States Construction Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.1%)

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in June

United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index: 49.7 (June) vs 48.6

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (55.7) in June: Actual (53.9)

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks at a policy panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026.

Nordea’s analysts argue that softer June inflation data should significantly lower the risk of another European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in July.

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales: 54482 (June) vs 51071

While speaking at a policy panel at the European Central Bank's (ECB) Forum on Central Banking, Bank of Governor (BoE) Andrew Bailey acknowledged that they have a softening economy and labour market.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that he will not be giving forward guidance on policy, while participating at a panel at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026.

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 (June) vs 49.1

HSBC analysts Willem Sels and Lucia Ku argue that concerns over mega IPOs and stretched valuations in US equities are offset by solid earnings growth across most S&P 500 sectors, driven by AI-related demand.

Chris Turner at ING argues the ECB is unlikely to drop its tightening rhetoric yet, even if a second September hike might be a mistake.

Private sector employment in the United States grew by 98K in June, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday. This print followed the 122K increase recorded in May and came in below the market expectation of 113K.

United States ADP Employment Change below forecasts (113K) in June: Actual (98K)