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"Iran agreement is in final shape": US President Trump signals de-escalation

United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he has canceled planned military strikes against Iran as negotiators are close to reach an agreement on the final elements of a deal." The documents are pretty final shape, so we'll see," he said during an event at the Oval Office.

Source  Fxstreet1781209924
Chinese Yuan: Oil shock and reserves strategy shape Yuan – Commerzbank

Commerzbank analysts report that USD/CNY is trading near 6.78, with their model implying a slightly stronger PBoC fixing versus the previous day. The Yuan is being influenced by China’s decision to tap domestic oil reserves rather than bid aggressively in global markets.

Source  Fxstreet1781209920
Singapore Dollar: Downside risk against US Dollar stays in focus – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a mildly positive stance on USD/SGD, looking for a test of 1.2900 in the near term while seeing 1.2915 as a tougher hurdle. On a 1–3 week horizon, they maintain that gains remain intact as long as 1.2830 holds.

Source  Fxstreet1781204940

Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 2.1%, below expectations (2.3%) in May

Source  Fxstreet1781204718
China: Mixed May data keep recovery uneven – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding assess China’s May data as showing solid production but softer demand. They expect Industrial Production growth to partially recover from April’s slump, supported by strong exports and high-tech manufacturing.

Source  Fxstreet1781202540
South Korean Won: Tighter FX oversight aims to steady KRW – Commerzbank

Commerzbank highlights that South Korean authorities have intensified FX monitoring to stabilize the Korean Won, including more frequent reviews of banks’ FX positions and joint inspections with the Bank of Korea. USD/KRW is consolidating around 1,520 after touching its highest level since 2009.

Source  Fxstreet1781200260
Thai Baht : Energy shock leaves THB vulnerable – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan argues that the Thai Baht is particularly exposed to prolonged Middle East conflict and elevated Oil prices. Thailand’s large net Oil and gas deficit, weakening terms of trade and relatively low domestic yields undermine the currency’s appeal.

Source  Fxstreet1781198580

United States 30-Year Bond Auction dipped from previous 5.046% to 5.02%

Source  Fxstreet1781197566
Chinese Yuan: Neutral tone within tight band against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a neutral stance on USD/CNH, expecting intraday consolidation between 6.7760 and 6.7880 after recent directionless trading. On a 1–3 week horizon, the pair is seen holding a broader 6.7620–6.7980 range.

Source  Fxstreet1781196420
Taiwan Dollar: Tech outflows and rising inflation weigh on TWD – Commerzbank

Commerzbank notes that USD/TWD has risen for five consecutive sessions to 31.68, driven by foreign equity outflows as global tech stocks correct. Taiwan’s exports and imports are surging on AI-related demand, while CPI has moved above the central bank’s 2% target.

Source  Fxstreet1781194740
China: Export prices still damp global inflation – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Shuang Ding argue that higher Oil and AI-related goods prices have lifted China’s import prices and PPI, ending a multi-year deflation spell.

Source  Fxstreet1781193240

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.595% vs previous 3.615%

Source  Fxstreet1781191975
Bank of Japan: Gradual normalisation with higher JGB yields – ING

ING’s Min Joo Kang expects the Bank of Japan to deliver a 25bp rate hike in June, supported by resilient growth, negative real rates and upside inflation risks. Despite soft May inflation, underlying pressures and firm wages justify further normalisation.

Source  Fxstreet1781190411
Swiss National Bank: Policy pause and FX stance – Nomura

Nomura analysts Josie Anderson, George Buckley, Andrzej Szczepaniak and David Seif expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0.00% at the 18 June meeting. They highlight low Swiss inflation, mixed activity data and ongoing Iran war uncertainty.

Source  Fxstreet1781188579

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change registered at 108B above expectations (101B) in June 5

Source  Fxstreet1781188203
Bank of England: One summer hike seen as likely – ING

ING’s James Smith highlights a softer UK backdrop than in 2022, with vacancies falling, unemployment rising and wage growth slowing, while firms and workers have limited pricing and bargaining power. He judges that the Bank of England (BoE) is torn between a prolonged pause and a symbolic move.

Source  Fxstreet1781187928
European Central Bank: Further tightening path outlined – Nordea

Nordea’s Jan von Gerich and Tuuli Koivu note that the European Central Bank (ECB) raised rates by 25bp and signalled readiness to tighten further as inflation stays above target.

Source  Fxstreet1781186562
Lagarde speech: Short-term inflation expectations have risen

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Source  Fxstreet1781184778
United Kingdom: Upside CPI risks building into 2027 – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects UK headline CPI to edge up to 3.01% year-on-year in May, with core CPI at 2.72% and Services CPI at 3.65%. The bank projects CPI to average 3.1% this year before easing to 2.6% next year and 2.3% in 2028, with risks to inflation seen skewed to the upside.

Source  Fxstreet1781184730
Reserve Bank of Australia: Output gap signals prolonged hold – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha and Howard Du argue recent weak Australian data and Federal Budget tax changes should keep the RBA cash rate at 4.35% next week and likely on hold for longer.

Source  Fxstreet1781183851
Lagarde speech: We did not discuss alternatives

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Source  Fxstreet1781183463

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $748.7B to $749.7B

Source  Fxstreet1781182843

Russia Foreign Trade dipped from previous $13.966B to $11.431B in April

Source  Fxstreet1781182842
Lagarde speech: Conflict is weighing on activity

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to raise key rates by 25 basis points at the June policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Source  Fxstreet1781182788
U.S. May PPI Rises More Than Expected as Energy Drives Producer Inflation Pressures

TradingKey - Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.1% month-over-month in May, matching the increase in April and exce

Source  Tradingkey1781182683
Oil: Chinese demand and US exports shape balance – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson notes that weaker Chinese crude imports and strong US exports have temporarily eased pressure on Oil, but he stresses these supports are not sustainable. China’s May 2026 crude imports fell sharply, while higher US exports are being drawn from inventories.

Source  Fxstreet1781182424
Swiss Franc: FX intervention focus – Nomura

Nomura’s European economics team expects the SNB to keep emphasising an elevated willingness to intervene in FX markets, despite recent CHF depreciation against EUR.

Source  Fxstreet1781181727
United States producer inflation jumps to 6.5% in May, highest since November 2022

Producer inflation in the United States (US) as measured by the change in the Producer Price Index (PPI), climbed to its highest level since November 2022 at 6.5% in May, from 5.7% in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday.

Source  Fxstreet1781181714

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.795M, above expectations (1.78M) in May 29

Source  Fxstreet1781181137

United States Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in May

Source  Fxstreet1781181007
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