TradingKey - This Tuesday (April 21), the U.S. will release its retail sales data for March. This data is generally regarded as one of the core metrics for observing the consumption patterns of U.S. r

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlights how the US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could reshape the risk premium on the Dollar.

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights how shifting perceptions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving sharp moves in Brent.

Canada’s economic docket opens on Monday with the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose assesses the latest inflation data for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary following the recent energy price spike. He notes that while headline inflation accelerated as expected, core measures show only mild, statistically noisy upticks.

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 20:

ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) briefly weakened after news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, implying US Dollar Index (DXY) around 97.50/98.00 and EUR/USD just over 1.18 if the crisis were resolved.

HSBC Asset Management highlights that global stock indices have stayed resilient through the Oil shock, while valuations and risk premia have adjusted more meaningfully.

According to the Iranian Republic News Agency, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said during European trading hours on Monday that the "war is in no one's interest”, and “every rational and diplomatic path should be used to reduce tensions”.

UOB economists Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann note that GBP/USD spiked to 1.3599 before dropping sharply and then sliding again on Monday. They see a chance of a test of 1.3450, with 1.3400 unlikely to be threatened.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank's (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock.

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) down to -0.4% in February from previous 1.7%

Asian equities rise on Monday despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices sharply higher, amplifying inflation concerns and increasing the chances of further central bank rate hikes.

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%)

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. 

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY): -0.9% (April) vs previous -0.2%

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) unchanged at 0.8% in April

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY): $-3.1B (March) vs previous $-3B

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) up to $698M in March from previous $-257M

New Zealand Imports: $7.25B (March) vs $6.89B

New Zealand Exports rose from previous $6.63B to $7.94B in March

The Iranian state TV reported on Sunday that the country rejected new peace talks with the United States, following US President Donald Trump's post on Truth Social, indicating US representatives were heading to Pakistan for another round of negotiations on Monday.

US President Donald Trump said he can trust Iranians, according to an interview with ABC News. Trump added that talks will take place only in Islamabad and resume over the weekend.

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s March 2026 core and headline inflation to rise to 1.6% and 1.8% year-on-year, from 1.4% and 1.2% in February. The report links this to imported energy price pressures after the Middle East conflict.

UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan assesses how Artificial Intelligence (AI) may affect productivity and whether the European Union (EU) could gain an advantage over the United States (US).

DBS Group Research economists highlight that China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year, driven by strong external demand and resilient industrial production, while domestic demand in consumption, investment and credit stayed weak.

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-115.8K from previous $-45.7K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 202.2K to 206.5K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥-83.2K from previous ¥-93.7K