ING’s Chief Economist for Turkey, Muhammet Mercan, notes that April inflation rose more than expected, with annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 32.4%, well above the Central Bank of Turkey’s 16% target.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold until September as it assesses the Iran conflict’s impact and monitors inflation.

Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%.

United States Factory Orders (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (1.5%)

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates.

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is opening up the Strait of Hormuz and added that they have "absolute control" of it, per Reuters.

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 49 to 52.6 in April

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through 2026, before lifting it back to a 2.75% neutral level in early 2027.

Societe Generale economists note that firm and consumer confidence fell more than expected in April, with Commission indices at multi‑year lows. Despite slightly positive 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand appears subdued and credit conditions are tightening.

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales dipped from previous 58060 to 47979 in April

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is now clearly leaning toward a June rate move, contrasting with the Bank of England's (BoE) preference to wait for fuller confirmation. He sees this directional guidance as a break from the prior “policy in a good place” stance.

Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported on Monday, that a senior US official denied that a US was ship was hit by Iranian missiles.

Iran's Fars News Agency reported on Monday that a US warship that ignored Iran's warning and intended to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit by two missiles when it was sailing near Jask island, per Reuters.

In his annual letter to French President Emmanuel Macron on the state of the economy on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB needs gather a "critical mass of data" suggesting that inflation is becoming entrenched before tightening the policy

HSBC Asset Management notes that US equities are at new highs while maintaining their price-earnings premium, supported by robust profit growth expectations around 15% for 2026.

Societe Generale economists report that the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8–1 vote. Their base case is for rates to remain unchanged through 2026, though further hikes of 50–75 bps are possible if the US‑Iran conflict persists.

UOB strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep policy broadly steady but deliver a single 25-basis-point rate hike at the 11 Jun meeting.

European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that although they are not committed to any fixed interest rate path, they remain firm in their policy approach.

BNY’s Bob Savage argues that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank’s bias to tighten, driven by domestic and energy-related strength, is largely priced and may not extend Norwegian Krone (NOK) gains.

Investor morale in the Eurozone improved slightly in May, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index edging higher to -16.4 from -19.2 in April.

According to the European Central Bank's (ECB) quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), inflation rate in the Eurozone is projected to average 2.7% in 2026 before softening to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area growth nearly stalled in 1Q, with 0.1% qoq GDP and weak confidence indicators. They argue downside risks to growth are rising even as headline inflation is set to climb further.

Turkey Exports up to $25.4B in April from previous $21.9B

Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (April) vs previous 54.5

Austria Unemployment Rate: 7.5% (April)

Austria Unemployment: 320.3K (April) vs previous 322.7K

Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 51.7 in April

Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 4: