Radhika Rao at DBS Group Research highlights that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) minutes from the early-August meeting were more cautious than Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s public messaging.

MUFG’s research team uses AI-driven textual analysis to judge the July FOMC minutes as slightly more hawkish, with broader support for a rate hike and concern over inflation expectations.

EUR/CAD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 1.6110 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross faces downward pressure as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains support from rising crude oil prices.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note India’s economy remains supported by strong domestic demand and exports, with growth projected at 6.7% in fiscal 2026-2027 versus 8% previously. Inflation is forecast at 5%, within the RBI’s 2-6% band, allowing policy to stay on hold at 5.25%.

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen highlights a divided Federal Reserve, with a larger ‘keep-on-hold’ camp waiting for core PCE inflation data in 2H 2026 before backing rate hikes.

The US 10-year Treasury yield attempts to stabilize on Thursday, edging higher to 4.672% at the time of writing after hitting a low of 4.635% on Wednesday.

GBP/USD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.3630 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges, driven by the decision of the US Treasury Department to stabilize domestic bond markets.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that USD/JPY dropped sharply to around 158.00, eroding the previous upside bias.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes South African inflation surprised on the downside in August, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 4.3% and core at 4.2%.

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu says the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes reveal a more hawkish inflation assessment than the policy statement suggested.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects the Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, to leave its policy rate at 1.75% and maintain a hawkish tone similar to June’s statement.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that equities rebounded as a sharp decline in long-end US Treasury yields helped the S&P 500 end a three-day losing streak.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi dismissed US President Donald Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” against Tehran as an attempt to divert attention from US debt and rising interest costs, Reuters reported on Thursday. Araghchi added that US policies will bring defeat and enmity. 

USD/IDR extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 17,810 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) finds solid backing from Bank Indonesia's (BI) renewed commitment to currency stability.

Asian equities advanced on Thursday, with South Korea's KOSPI surging nearly 6% intraday amid a more than 5% jump in SK Hynix shares following the buyback announcement.

USD/JPY appreciates after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 158.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

China's Commerce Ministry on Thursday announced a decision on corporate tax rate for enterprises related to anti-dumping measures on imported polyoxymethylene from the United States (US), the European Union (EU), Taiwan and Japan, Reuters reported.

Australia Part-Time Employment dipped from previous 47K to -32.2K in July

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Wednesday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively.

US President Trump announced the most severe economic action ever taken against Iran, CBS News reported on Wednesday. Trump said this will be economic conflict and isolation on an unprecedented scale and the countries allowing financial aid to Iran will face severe economic consequences. 

TradingKey - The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July meeting on August 19, Eastern Time. At the meeting held on July 28–29, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal f

United States 20-Year Bond Auction: 5.204% vs 5.163%

Geoff Yu writes that Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its benchmark rate at 5.75% for a second month in Acting Governor Destry Damayanti’s first decision.

The US 10-year Treasury yield declines sharply on Wednesday, trading at 4.651% at the time of writing after reaching an intraday high of 4.712%.

Societe Generale’s Sam Cartwright notes United Kingdom (UK) headline inflation rose to 2.9% year-on-year in July, driven mainly by higher household energy bills.

Commerzbank analysts note that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) is expected to keep its policy rate at 1.0%, seeing it as sufficiently accommodative. USD/THB has consolidated in a 32.90–33.30 range, with rising global commodity prices and foreign outflows posing downside risks for the Baht.

Sam Cartwright at Societe Generale argues recent easing in United Kingdom (UK) services inflation and labour market loosening support the Bank of England’s wait-and-see stance. The baseline view is Bank Rate stays at 3.75% through 2026 to restrain underlying inflation.

Chris Turner at ING explains that Korea’s earlier massive portfolio outflows and a weaker Korean Won (KRW) pushed USD/KRW to 1560 in June, despite a large current account surplus.

The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will release the Minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday.

Commerzbank’s Charlie Lay, Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that China’s July data showed weaker Industrial Production and Retail Sales, underscoring fading momentum at the start of Q3.