TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir highlight that the June FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most participants ready to hike if supply-driven inflation persists.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Jörg Krämer describes Switzerland’s strong federalism and extensive use of financial referenda as key to its superior economic outcomes. Cantons and municipalities compete for taxpayers by setting their own tax rates and controlling spending.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) trades in a tight range against the Euro (EUR) as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) actively works to neutralize safe-haven capital inflows stemming from increased geopolitical woes. 

Iran’s top joint military command issued a series of warnings on Monday over the Strait of Hormuz, saying any unauthorized United States (US) transit would be confronted and cautioning neighboring countries against supporting Washington.

Russia Foreign Trade up to $14.154B in May from previous $11.431B

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said that they will probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and argued that they should be reimbursed for controlling it.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, with markets not pricing cuts until at least Q4.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/CHF performance since the Iran war, noting that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has intervened to counter safe haven inflows while the European Central Bank’s (ECB) hawkish stance has supported the Euro (EUR).

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky says Central and Eastern European FX will be driven by secondary data and policy expectations. A dovish National Bank of Poland stance and market pricing of future rate cuts are seen weighing on the Zloty, with ING’s models pointing EUR/PLN closer to 4.340.

India’s retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) rises at an annualized pace of 4.38% in June, stronger than 4.3% estimates and the previous reading of 3.93%.

Societe Generale strategists note that India’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) release will be important for bond markets, with the 10-year IGB yield holding near its 200-day moving average around 6.71%.

ING analysts Chris Turner, Frantisek Taborsky and Francesco Pesole note that higher energy prices and tensions in the Gulf are supporting the Dollar against low-yielding currencies. They highlight that US energy independence and live Fed tightening prospects underpin Dollar strength.

A spokesperson from the Iranian Foreign Ministry has confirmed in the European trade on Monday that efforts from Qatar, Oman, and Pakistan to mediate tensions with the United States (US) continue.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux notes that Brent has sharply rebounded after defending the late-February low around $69 and is now testing the 200-day moving average and a descending trendline.

TradingKey - At 10:00 AM ET on Tuesday (July 13), Fed Chair Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee, facing lawmakers' questioning on the Fed's semi-annual monetary policy rep

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 closed at 7575, gaining 0.42%, after a strong week supported by stabilising chip stocks and a rebound in the Philly semiconductor index.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights that USD/JPY is grinding higher above 162 as higher energy prices pressure Asian currencies. He notes that Japanese authorities may follow a similar intervention pattern to last year, with potential action ahead of the Marine Day holiday.

Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-1.459B, below expectations ($-0.96B) in May

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 13:

Japan currently has no immediate plans to change target asset allocations of its state pension funds but could work within existing allowable ranges to direct more investment to domestic assets, people with knowledge of government deliberations told Reuters.

Most Asian equities trade in negative territory on Monday amid renewed geopolitical tension in the Middle East after reports of US-Iran airstrikes and Tehran's closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz. 

USD/IDR gains ground after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 18,180 during the Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) appreciated as intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked a wave of safe-haven demand.

NZD/USD depreciates after three days of losses, trading around 0.5750 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair holds onto its losses as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains subdued, failing to find immediate support despite a positive turnaround in local economic data.

New Zealand Business NZ PSI rose from previous 47.5 to 50.6 in June

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that it launched additional strikes against Iran on Sunday aimed at further weakening the Islamic Republic’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reported.

TradingKey - In the coming week, global markets will welcome the first true "Super Week" of the second half of the year. A dense lineup of key US inflation and consumption data, including June CPI, PP

DBS economists Radhika Rao and Mo Ji forecast Singapore’s advance 2Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 5.8% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, slightly below 1Q26 but still resilient.

Commerzbank’s report on Taiwan notes that stronger inflation, with core CPI at 2.5%, is likely to push the CBC towards a more hawkish stance, including a possible 12.5 bp hike in H2.

DBS economists Radhika Rao and Mo Ji expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to raise its base rate to 2.75% from 2.50% in July, citing persistent CPI inflation above 3% and resilient growth.

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions dipped from previous €1.1K to €-16.2K