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U.S. March Retail Sales Preview: How Consumption Data Will Affect U.S. Stocks, the Dollar and Gold

TradingKey - This Tuesday (April 21), the U.S. will release its retail sales data for March. This data is generally regarded as one of the core metrics for observing the consumption patterns of U.S. r

Source  Tradingkey1776680125
Fed: Leadership clash raises market risk – DBS

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee highlights how the US Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could reshape the risk premium on the Dollar.

Source  Fxstreet1776679772
Brent: Strait risk repricing drives fresh gains – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Senior Market Strategist Benjamin Picton highlights how shifting perceptions around the Strait of Hormuz are driving sharp moves in Brent.

Source  Fxstreet1776674950
Canada CPI is expected to jump in March amid higher energy prices

Canada’s economic docket opens on Monday with the key Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for March, which will be closely watched to gauge the inflationary impact of the war in Iran.

Source  Fxstreet1776672000
CEE FX: Limited impact from energy shock so far – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose assesses the latest inflation data for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary following the recent energy price spike. He notes that while headline inflation accelerated as expected, core measures show only mild, statistically noisy upticks.

Source  Fxstreet1776671646
Iran's Baghaei: No plans for another round of talks with US yet

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said during the European trading session on Monday that there is “no plan for a second round of negotiations with the United States (US) for now.

Source  Fxstreet1776671568
Forex Today: Cautious start to week as Middle East tensions re-escalate

Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 20:

Source  Fxstreet1776671487
DXY: New range forms as conflict risk lingers – ING

ING’s Chris Turner notes the US Dollar (USD) briefly weakened after news that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, implying US Dollar Index (DXY) around 97.50/98.00 and EUR/USD just over 1.18 if the crisis were resolved.

Source  Fxstreet1776670142
Equities: Valuations improve as earnings hold – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management highlights that global stock indices have stayed resilient through the Oil shock, while valuations and risk premia have adjusted more meaningfully.

Source  Fxstreet1776669654
Iran's Pezeshkian: War is in no one's interest

According to the Iranian Republic News Agency, Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said during European trading hours on Monday that the "war is in no one's interest”, and “every rational and diplomatic path should be used to reduce tensions”.

Source  Fxstreet1776669046
GBP/USD: Downward momentum fades into broad range – UOB

UOB economists Quek Ser Leang Lee and Sue Ann note that GBP/USD spiked to 1.3599 before dropping sharply and then sliding again on Monday. They see a chance of a test of 1.3450, with 1.3400 unlikely to be threatened.

Source  Fxstreet1776668175
EUR/USD: Limited upside as longer-term Dollar risks grow – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen argues that in the short term EUR/USD gains are capped as markets may be overestimating the European Central Bank's (ECB) reaction to the latest inflation shock.

Source  Fxstreet1776665962

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) down to -0.4% in February from previous 1.7%

Source  Fxstreet1776659453
Asian stocks gain despite increased risk aversion

Asian equities rise on Monday despite renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices sharply higher, amplifying inflation concerns and increasing the chances of further central bank rate hikes.

Source  Fxstreet1776654890

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (3%)

Source  Fxstreet1776647169
PBOC leaves Loan Prime Rates unchanged in April

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. 

Source  Fxstreet1776647032

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY): -0.9% (April) vs previous -0.2%

Source  Fxstreet1776639766

United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) unchanged at 0.8% in April

Source  Fxstreet1776639743

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (YoY): $-3.1B (March) vs previous $-3B

Source  Fxstreet1776638970

New Zealand Trade Balance NZD (MoM) up to $698M in March from previous $-257M

Source  Fxstreet1776638937

New Zealand Imports: $7.25B (March) vs $6.89B

Source  Fxstreet1776638830

New Zealand Exports rose from previous $6.63B to $7.94B in March

Source  Fxstreet1776638800
Iran denies upcoming talks with the United States

The Iranian state TV reported on Sunday that the country rejected new peace talks with the United States, following US President Donald Trump's post on Truth Social, indicating US representatives were heading to Pakistan for another round of negotiations on Monday.

Source  Fxstreet1776633374
US President Trump says he can trust Iranians – ABC News

US President Donald Trump said he can trust Iranians, according to an interview with ABC News. Trump added that talks will take place only in Islamabad and resume over the weekend.

Source  Fxstreet1776463719
Singapore: CPI seen higher on energy shock – DBS

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s March 2026 core and headline inflation to rise to 1.6% and 1.8% year-on-year, from 1.4% and 1.2% in February. The report links this to imported energy price pressures after the Middle East conflict.

Source  Fxstreet1776461340
AI: Competitive edge debate – UBS

UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan assesses how Artificial Intelligence (AI) may affect productivity and whether the European Union (EU) could gain an advantage over the United States (US).

Source  Fxstreet1776458280
China: Policy easing expectations trimmed – DBS

DBS Group Research economists highlight that China’s Q1 2026 GDP growth accelerated to 5.0% year-on-year, driven by strong external demand and resilient industrial production, while domestic demand in consumption, investment and credit stayed weak.

Source  Fxstreet1776455460

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-115.8K from previous $-45.7K

Source  Fxstreet1776454293

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions climbed from previous 202.2K to 206.5K

Source  Fxstreet1776454286

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions increased to ¥-83.2K from previous ¥-93.7K

Source  Fxstreet1776454279
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