Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Volkmar Baur say China’s industrial profits surged early in 2026, led by AI-related electronics, but this strength predates the recent energy shock.

United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions climbed from previous £-65.5K to £-58.4K

Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: ¥-62.8K vs ¥-67.8K

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions climbed from previous $159.9K to $168.3K

United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-113.1K to $-80.9K

United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 218.7K to 233.6K

Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions declined to €9.3K from previous €21.1K

Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions rose from previous $69.1K to $70.9K

DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s March CPI inflation to stay firm at 4% year-on-year, slightly below February’s 4.8%, but with a faster monthly pace. Analysts highlight the impact of higher energy prices and festive demand, as well as base effects.

DBS Group Research sees South Korea’s March exports remaining in double-digit growth, supported by strong AI and data centre demand, higher memory prices and supply shortages, leading to a wider trade surplus despite rising import costs.

ING’s Deepali Bhargava warns that higher Oil prices and supply disruptions are worsening growth, inflation and external balances in the Philippines.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Richmond President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that it is prudent to keep interest rates steady for now, as policymakers await greater clarity on the economic outlook.

ING notes that ECB officials have offered little resistance to hawkish market pricing as Oil rises, reinforcing front-end EUR rate expectations.

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Claire Fan and Abbey Xu expect Canadian GDP to be essentially flat in January after December’s 0.2% gain, with weakness concentrated in autos and housing but offset by energy and retail.

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations above forecasts (3.4%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index came in at 51.7 below forecasts (54.1) in March

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in line with forecasts (3.2%) in March

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 53.3 below forecasts (54) in March

Commerzbank’s Dr. Vincent Stamer updates Euro area inflation projections incorporating the Iran War and associated energy shock. The bank expects higher Oil and natural gas prices to push headline inflation above 3% in 2026 before easing back to the ECB’s 2% target by 2027.

Halpenny stresses that the extension of Trump’s pause only on attacks against energy assets, combined with Iran’s limited tanker gestures, suggests the Strait of Hormuz will stay constrained.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets team reviews Banxico’s March 26 decision to cut the overnight policy rate by 25bp to 6.75%. The move was a close call, with two governors preferring to keep rates at 7.00%.

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ climbed from previous $-1.248B to $-1.09B in February

Mexico Jobless Rate meets forecasts (2.6%) in February

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a up to 2.7% in February from previous 2.6%

Mexico Trade Balance, $ came in at $-0.463B below forecasts ($1.2B) in February

Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja expects a relatively quiet UK data week, with focus on March DMP survey signals around the Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and hiring plans. He forecasts only marginal upside risk to Q4-25 GDP, with the ONS likely confirming 0.1% q-o-q growth.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Madis Müller said in an interview with Econostream that the central bank might need to wait for the release of second-round inflation effects before making any monetary policy adjustment.

Commerzbank’s Jörg Krämer expects the ECB to react to war‑driven energy inflation with at most one additional rate hike. Inflation is projected to rise above 3% by summer before easing, while Eurozone growth is revised down to 0.6% in 2026.

Ireland Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 0.8% in February from previous 3%

Ireland Retail Sales (MoM) fell from previous 1.5% to -0.8% in February