John Velis at BNY Markets reiterates that he expects no Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, even as risks remain skewed to the upside.

EUR/CAD continues its losing streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around 1.6080 during the European hours on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) is under pressure as rising risk aversion, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions, weighs on the cross.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo note that the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision, with the Statement and updated forecasts sounding less hawkish than expected.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose describes recent Forint weakness as a high-beta correction that only partly erases post-election outperformance.

Italy Trade Balance EU: €1.577B (June) vs €0.845B

Italy Global Trade Balance registered at €4.232B, below expectations (€4.74B) in June

Deutsche Bank strategists report that US equities saw modest losses as Oil extended gains, with the S&P 500 easing slightly from record highs and chipmakers leading declines. Energy and health care outperformed.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, August 11:

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range.

AUD/NZD pares its daily gains, trading around 1.1960 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has drifted lower following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy decision, keeping the currency cross on a weaker footing.

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,850 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (4.35%)

Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY) registered at 3.2% above expectations (3.1%) in July

USD/JPY moves little after posting nearly 1% gains in the previous day, trading around 159.30 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair moved little today, trading in tight ranges as market volumes remained thin with Japanese markets closed for the Mountain Day holiday.

According to the Jiji Press, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next policy meeting on September 17-18, after leaving them unchanged in July, to counter upside inflation risks.

Gold (XAU/USD) scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, further beyond the $4,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is on track to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35% for the second consecutive meeting on Tuesday.

Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.17%, below expectations (0.35%) in July

Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (6.2%) in July: Actual (6.03%)

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack crossed the wires on Monday and was hawkish, noting that the current rate is not “meaningfully restricting the economy” and that there is a need for some number of rate hikes.

US Treasury yields rose on Monday as traders braced for the release of US inflation figures this week, following a worse-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday.

Standard Chartered analysts Carol Liao and Moriarty Lam argue that China’s reflation remains largely cost-driven, with industrial profit recovery concentrated in AI- and oil-related sectors. They highlight that domestic demand continues to lag supply, creating a persistent imbalance.

TD Securities notes July payrolls surprised sharply to the downside, with headline jobs dragged by government hiring, while private employment stayed near breakeven.

In a major setback to efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and cool Middle East tensions, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with United States (US) President Donald Trump. Iranian outlets and a X post by y an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

United States (US) President Donald Trump used a post on his Truth Social platform to push back on Iran's demands for war reparations, arguing that Tehran, not Washington, should carry the bill for the damage and lives lost across the region.

HSBC Asset Management notes that Emerging Market local-currency bonds have delivered strong returns over the past four years, supported by credible policies and attractive real yields, but year-to-date performance has softened as US Treasury yields rose and EM-US real rate differentials narrowed.

Nordea economist Jan Størup Nielsen notes that Danish inflation eased slightly in July, with headline consumer prices up 1.7% year-over-year and core inflation steady at 2.3%.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data surprised to the upside, suggesting resilience despite higher energy prices and supply disruptions.

TD Securities’ US economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2026 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran-related risks keep the Federal Reserve on hold through year-end.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.