TradingKey - Affected by the US Independence Day holiday, the June non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for release on Friday, was brought forward to Thursday, and the results unexpectedly c

ING strategists Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker discuss how a potential increase in the Minimum Reserve Requirement (MRR) by the ECB could tighten Eurozone liquidity and reduce ECB losses.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $743.8B to $715.2B

Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 51

While speaking at a Banco de España conference in Santander, Spain, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that she doesn't see any signs of a lack of economic resiliency in the US, despite above-target inflation, per Reuters.

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen reviews Germany’s new reform package agreed by CDU/CSU and SPD, focusing on bureaucracy reduction, labor market changes, and modest tax adjustments.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 215K for the week ending June 27.

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.814M, above forecasts (1.81M) in June 19

United States U6 Underemployment Rate declined to 7.9% in June from previous 8.1%

United States Unemployment Rate registered at 4.2%, below expectations (4.3%) in June

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average dipped from previous 224.25K to 222K in June 26

United States Labor Force Participation Rate fell from previous 61.8% to 61.5% in June

United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (220K) in June 26: Actual (215K)

United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 57K, below expectations (110K) in June

United States Average Weekly Hours in line with expectations (34.3) in June

United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in June

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that softer Euro-zone inflation has pushed EUR/USD below support at 1.1400, with yields falling and markets less confident of another ECB rate hike. The ECB’s “milder” scenario now looks more likely, reducing pressure to tighten further.

Frantisek Taborsky at ING notes diverging PMI signals in Central Europe, with strong Czech sentiment and weaker Poland, but still expects Polish growth above 3% in 2026. Softer Polish inflation and a potentially dovish National Bank of Poland outlook are reflected in modest rate-cut pricing.

UOB strategist Quek Ser Leang highlights a constructive technical backdrop for the US Dollar Index (DXY), noting similarities with the 2021 and 2025 basing phases.

TD Securities’ Prashant Newnaha expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 2.50% at next week’s meeting, keeping policy too accommodative with the cash rate still below neutral.

When asked about the sudden spike in the Japanese Yen (JPY), Japan’s Finance Ministry declined to comment, per Reuters.

EUR/CAD rises after two days of losses, trading around 1.6200 during the European hours on Thursday. The pair remains stronger as the Euro (EUR) holds ground following the release of the Eurozone Unemployment Rate, which came in at 6.2% in May, against the 6.3% expected.

France 10-y Bond Auction fell from previous 3.8% to 3.73%

Spain 5-y Bond Auction declined to 2.835% from previous 2.947%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction rose from previous 3.383% to 3.395%

The Dow Jones futures decline 0.15% to trade near 52,600, while S&P 500 futures fall 0.24%, trading near 7,520. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 futures lose 0.80% to trade near 29,850 during European trading hours on Thursday.

Commerzbank analysts note India’s final June manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was revised down to 54.2, marking the second-slowest expansion in four years, with broad moderation across output, orders and employment.

The British Pound (GBP) remains tightly bound to the UK’s evolving inflation outlook and impending fiscal policy choices.

Italy Unemployment below expectations (5.1%) in May: Actual (5%)

Spain Unemployment Change above expectations (-40.8K) in June: Actual (-28.7K)