United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.66% vs 3.63%

ING’s Carsten Brzeski argues that the European Central Bank is likely to keep rates unchanged next week but a surprise hike cannot be ruled out. He notes that renewed Middle East tensions and rising Oil prices have restored the macro backdrop seen before the June meeting.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that United Kingdom (UK) May Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slightly beat expectations, driven by services, but underlying details disappointed as production and construction contracted and growth relied on one subsector.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change below forecasts (45B) in July 10: Actual (41B)

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen says renewed US-Iran hostilities have shifted Eurozone inflation risks upward. June’s softer-than-expected flash estimate may buy the ECB time in July, but the earlier decline in energy prices has reversed, pointing to firmer inflation readings ahead.

United States Pending Home Sales (YoY) down to -0.3% in June from previous 4.8%

United States Business Inventories meets forecasts (0.3%) in May

United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 34, below expectations (35) in July

United States Pending Home Sales (MoM) registered at -5.4%, below expectations (-0.5%) in June

TD Securities reports United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.1% month-on-month in May, matching their forecast and beating the market’s flat expectation. Three‑month growth remains strong at 0.7%, with services and manufacturing outperforming.

Societe Generale’s Kiyong Seong reviews the Bank of Korea’s 25bp hike to 2.75%, noting a unanimously hawkish Monetary Policy Committee. The July statement is assessed as more hawkish than May, and Governor Shin’s comments keep the option of a consecutive hike at the 27 August meeting open.

“BNY’s Geoff Yu says tougher Western action against Chinese automakers could add pressure on Europe’s legacy manufacturers.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ climbed from previous $721.7B to $722.4B

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that hopes of a fiscally conservative Chancellor under incoming United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Burnham have supported the British Pound (GBP) and gilts.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 208K for the week ending July 11.

Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in June to $768.6 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This print followed the 1% increase recorded in May and came in line with the market expectation. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 6.7%.

United States Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 6.7% in June from previous 6.9%

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 1.805M, below expectations (1.82M) in July 3

United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (-0.1%) in June: Actual (-0.2%)

United States Retail Sales Control Group meets expectations (0.5%) in June

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey above forecasts (13) in July: Actual (41.4)

United States Retail Sales (MoM) meets expectations (0.2%) in June

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 208K below forecasts (217K) in July 10

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average down to 214.25K in July 10 from previous 218.75K

TD Securities notes the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its policy rate at 2.25% and softened guidance by removing references to both rate-cut risks and consecutive hikes. Markets interpreted the statement as mildly dovish, but prior moves limited volatility.

Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) below expectations (258K) in June: Actual (239K)

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen expects the ECB to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% in July, judging a hike as a tail risk that would require a much stronger energy shock.

United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) dipped from previous 0.933% to 0.4% in June

BNY’s Geoff Yu says iFlow Carry is beginning to resemble its 2023 upswing. Neutral positioning in carry currencies, including those funded in the dollar, leaves room for exposures to rebuild. G10 FX attracted broad inflows, while EM FX selling was led by HUF, ZAR and KRW.

ING’s Chris Turner highlights a powerful short squeeze in Sterling, triggered by reports that Shabana Mahmood could become Andy Burnham’s chancellor, a choice seen as less fiscally expansive.