Deutsche Bank strategists report that after a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) under new Chair Kevin Warsh, they now forecast two 25 bps Fed hikes in 2026, likely in September and December, taking the fed funds rate to around 4.1%.

Deutsche Bank strategists note that Brent Oil has reversed earlier gains as progress in US–Iran talks reduces fears over disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz.

AUD/JPY holds gains after experiencing volatility, trading around 113.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains heavily bid as the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground to widespread carry-trade activity.

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces his resignation and says that nominations for new contender will open on July 9.

Michael Wan at MUFG stresses that local factors matter for Asia FX, focusing on current account deficit currencies reliant on external funding.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Spain, José Luis Escrivá, said during the European trading session on Monday that the central bank needs to monitor for second-round effects on wages.

Turkey Consumer Confidence: 87.9 (June) vs 85.8

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that the Russian Central Bank surprised markets by cutting rates only 25 bps to 14.25%, instead of the 50 bps expected, signalling a hawkish stance and caution on further easing.

EUR/CAD extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 1.6260 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Danske Research Team observes that equities fell on Friday, led by Europe, as renewed concerns around Iran and stalled talks weighed on sentiment and drove a defensive rotation.

Asian stocks kick off the new week on a downbeat note, though signs of progress in US-Iran pace negotiations eased concerns over a potential escalation in geopolitical tensions and limited deeper losses.

Netherlands, The Consumer Confidence Adj: -39 (June) vs -46

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, recovers its recent losses from the previous trading day and is hovering around 100.80 during the Asian hours on Monday.

AUD/JPY gains ground after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 113.30 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds ground as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stronger following China’s latest monetary policy update.

China Finance Ministry said on Monday that officials to impose measures on 46 US firms in government procurement. The authorities further stated that they will add 10 US entities to export control list. 

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Himino said on Monday that delaying adjustment in monetary easing could trigger a significant inflation overshoot. Himino emphasized that oil price pass-through to downstream goods is advancing fairly quickly. 

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged on Monday. The one-year and five-year LPRs were at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. 

China PBoC Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (3%)

Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday that the officials are ready to respond appropriately to the currency moves at any time as needed. Katayama declines to comment on specific exchange levels.

Citing a source with knowledge of the matter, Reuters reported on Monday that the United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer was reassessing his political future on Sunday after rival Andy Burnham's decisive parliamentary election victory prompted additional ministers from the governing La

Here’s a brief recap of the key developments in the US-Iran geopolitical front that occurred over the weekend, especially after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday over Israel's attacks on Lebanon, and amid renewed peace talks in Switzerland.

TradingKey - The United States is set to release the May PCE price index on June 25 at Eastern Time. This is one of the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation gauges and will serve as a critical dat

Iran says it is closing the Strait of Hormuz after accusing the United States (US) and Israel of violating the ceasefire. According to Iran, the decision came over the continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Friday that a planned meeting in Switzerland with US officials had been postponed, adding that preparations are already underway for a new meeting in the coming days, Reuters reported.

Deutsche Bank’s Galina Pozdnyakova, Jim Reid and Luke Templeman highlight that next week’s main macro focus will be global flash PMIs and several key inflation releases.

Citing a senior US official on Friday, Reuters reported that Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire at 4 p.m. local time on Friday.

Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $729.3B vs previous $749.7B

Canada Retail Sales (MoM) below expectations (0.6%) in April: Actual (0.5%)

Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below expectations (0.7%) in April: Actual (0.1%)

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes that USD/SGD closed at 1.2900, with the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (S$NEER) estimated at 1.75% above its mid-point.