HSBC Asset Management observes that 2026 has brought sharp swings in rate expectations for the Bank of England and European Central Bank, with markets moving from cuts to hikes as Oil-linked inflation risks rise.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen discusses the renewed popularity of FX carry trades as hopes grow for an end to the Middle East war. She stresses that long-run returns are not driven by interest differentials alone and warns that theory argues against persistent excess returns.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights China as the only emerging market currently seeing net buying across equities, bonds and currency, even as domestic data remain mixed.

HSBC Asset Management notes that political uncertainty and higher Oil prices have added volatility to Turkish assets and pressured reserves. Yet the MSCI Türkiye Index has held up, supported by healthy reserves and a managed Lira float.

United States (US) President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he is unconcerned about the future of negotiations with Iran, saying, "I don't care if negotiations with Iran are over," during an interview with CNBC. Trump also claimed that talks are continuing, at a rapid pace, with the Islamic Rep

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% and sees its easing cycle as effectively over.

Halpenny highlights that the ECB is widely expected to hike at its 11 June meeting, with markets focused on forward guidance for the Euro.

ING economist Adam Antoniak expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep its main policy rate at 3.75% at the 2 June meeting and beyond, as May CPI surprised to the downside and remains within the target band.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur argues that the Japanese Yen will stay pressured in coming months as the Iran conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed, sustaining high Oil prices and hurting Japan’s trade balance.

Nordea notes that ECB officials, including Schnabel, Lane, Rehn and Stournaras, are increasingly signalling a June rate hike and possible further moves to safeguard credibility.

Business activity in the United States' (US) manufacturing sector expanded at an accelerating pace in May, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54 from 52.7 in April. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 53.

United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at 0.4%, above expectations (0.2%) in April

United States ISM Manufacturing Employment Index climbed from previous 46.4 to 48.6 in May

United States ISM Manufacturing PMI registered at 54 above expectations (53) in May

United States ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid came in at 82.1 below forecasts (85.5) in May

United States ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index: 56.8 (May) vs 54.1

ING’s Chris Turner notes that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has successfully dampened expectations for further tightening, with priced hikes falling sharply alongside lower Oil prices.

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered at 55.1, below expectations (55.3) in May

Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 52.9 in May from previous 53.3

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $72,000 at press time on Monday, as Strategy’s 8-K filing reveals that 32 BTC were sold in late May for approximately $2.5 million, which could fund the preferred stock dividends on June 30. 

Iran's Tasnim News agency claimed on Monday that Iran's negotiating team is stopping message exchanges the United States (US) through mediators in protest against attacks on Lebanon.

Societe Generale analysts note Brent has pulled back after forming a lower high and slipping under its 50-day moving average. They highlight nearby trend-line support around $91/90 and a deeper support zone near $86.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Eurozone May Consumer Price Index (CPI) to remain close to the European Central Bank's (ECB) baseline projections, with risks skewed slightly lower after softer German data. Markets have nearly fully priced a 25 bps hike to 2.25% on June 11.

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 (May) vs previous 52.6

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales rose from previous 47979 to 51071 in May

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that the Polish Zloty has underperformed CE3 - Polish Złoty (PLN), Czech Koruna (CZK), and Hungarian Forint (HUF) - peers in 2026, with political risk overshadowing macro fundamentals.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that Sweden’s benign inflation and spare capacity support an extended Riksbank hold. While the central bank projects its policy rate at 1.75% until late 2026, swaps price a more aggressive tightening path.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi warns of serious consequences, in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the United States (US) and Israel would face serious consequences if there any military action across all fronts, including Lebanon.

MUFG’s Halpenny argues that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to hike 25 bps on 16 June, with markets pricing around an 80% chance.

India Industrial Output came in at 4.9%, above forecasts (3.9%) in April