Societe Generale analysts describe EUR/HUF as consolidating above the 360 area after an interim low near 348 in June. The pair is capped by the 200-day moving average at 370/371, with a breakout above this zone needed to confirm a larger up-move.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike after surprising markets by holding rates in July.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Hungary to pause its mini easing cycle at 5.50% and possibly outline a two-step cut in its inflation target from 3.0% to 2.0%.

John Velis at BNY Markets argues that current US inflation is being driven by non-rate-sensitive components of core PCE, limiting how effective further Federal Reserve tightening can be.

Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, September 22:

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes EUR/GBP has held a tight 0.855–0.860 range since early September after a Bank of England (BoE) meeting that did not strongly challenge aggressive market tightening expectations.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a strong risk-on session in US equities, with the S&P 500 up over 1% and back in positive territory for September, sitting less than half a percent below its all-time high.

Antje Praefcke at Commerzbank highlights that the Hungarian Central Bank is widely expected to leave its key rate at 5.50% and possibly lower its inflation target to 2.5%.

EUR/CAD depreciates after three days of gains, trading around 1.6080 during early European hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is losing ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) draws strength on higher oil prices, which could be attributed to the heightened market caution.

Danske Research Team describes a strong, broad-based risk-on session in equities, catalyzed by declining Oil price.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said in a statement released during the Asian trading session on Tuesday that supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with. Bullock added, “Policy needs to deal with second-round effects on inflation.”

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman said on Tuesday that if higher oil prices persist, they are expected to result in somewhat higher near-term inflation than assumed in the September statement.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price halts its four-day losing streak, trading around $92.30 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. However, crude oil prices may face further challenges amid easing supply concerns in the Middle East and growing diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter confirmed the need for further rate hikes this year, to keep inflation in check. This has increased the chances for a rate increase at the September 29 meeting.

Yemen’s Houthis pushed to seize strategic heights in Yemen on Monday to cut off the Red Sea coast from remaining areas held by Saudi-backed forces, after a report that US President Donald Trump had called off US strikes on the group at the last minute, Reuters reported.

The European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that the European economy will expand steadily at a moderate pace if the energy shocks ease, according to Le Temps.

On Monday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that the resumption of hostilities in the Middle East was a key reason for supporting the increase in the Fed funds rate last week.

UOB’s Jester Koh assesses Singapore’s soft labour market and its implications for Monetary Authority of Singapore policy. The Labour Market Pressure Index shows rising slack, which UOB links to weaker passthrough of supply-side shocks into inflation.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that Indonesia’s appointment of Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara signals fiscal continuity and discipline, helping to reduce domestic risk premia for the Rupiah.

Commerzbank’s Henry Hao and Moses Lim highlight that Singapore’s August NODX growth was the strongest since 1998, driven by surging electronics and robust AI-related demand. They expect NODX to stay firm but moderate as base effects fade.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong comments that USD/KRW eased as Korean equities rebounded and foreign investors briefly turned net buyers, but warns this may not mark a lasting shift.

The Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, said that he expects inflation to “drift up a little higher in the coming months,” and commented that “A new era of uncertainty is not going away any time soon,” as he speaks in Halifax at the time of writing.

National Bank of Canada (NBC) strategist Angelo Katsoras analyzes how the 2026 United States (US) midterm elections could reshape policy under President Trump. He notes Democrats are favoured by high inflation, weak approval ratings and a strong generic ballot lead.

Standard Chartered economists Anubhuti Sahay and Saurav Anand highlight that India’s AI-enabling goods trade deficit has become the second-largest contributor to the country’s trade gap after Oil, overtaking Gold.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole notes the Dollar remains supported as ING now expects the Fed to deliver one final rate hike in December. Despite near-term upside risks for the Dollar, ING keeps a gradually negative longer-term view and anticipates lower energy prices in Q4.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight a sharp divergence between physical Brent and futures, with Dated Brent trading at a substantial premium. They note that Diesel strength implies Brent should be above $150/bbl to restore historical refining economics.

Chicago Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Austan Goolsbee said at an Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum event on Monday that various factors including strong demand, tariffs, energy and supply shocks are fuelling United States (US) inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin price reclaims $85,000 on Monday, advancing last week’s 5% recovery toward an eight-month high. The recovery in King Crypto aligns with renewed institutional demand, with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $433 million in inflows on Friday. 

EUR/CAD extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 1.6090 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross remains stronger as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices.

Danske Research Team reports a strong rebound in global equities, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Stoxx 600 and Kospi all posting solid gains despite a recent Fed hike and further tightening priced.