News

Sweden: Election uncertainty and fiscal stance – Nomura

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that Sweden’s 13 September election remains too close to call, with the centre-left only narrowly ahead.

Source  Fxstreet1789391856
Federal Reserve: Inflation keeps pressure on – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economists note that August US CPI data were broadly in line with expectations but still too high for the Federal Reserve. They stress excessive underlying price pressure and say the Fed has already signaled readiness to hike.

Source  Fxstreet1789389349
British Pound: BoE hold, slower QT and dovish repricing risk – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% with a likely 6–3 vote, as easing United Kingdom (UK) wage and services inflation allow a pause.

Source  Fxstreet1789386738
Czech Koruna: Dovish CNB may weaken CZK against Euro - ING

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky outlines a busy Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) data calendar but stresses that the Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting is the key event. He expects rates to stay at 3.75% with dovish guidance, contrasting with still-hawkish market pricing.

Source  Fxstreet1789385978
Federal Reserve: Rate hike path and data support – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team say the Fed’s decision on Wednesday is the main market event, with their economists expecting a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% and now forecasting 75bps of hikes over the next seven months.

Source  Fxstreet1789385114
ECB’s Schnabel: Recent energy-price developments have been quite concerning

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said recent energy-price developments have been "quite concerning" as officials consider further interest-rate increases after last week’s move, Bloomberg reported.

Source  Fxstreet1789384304
Fed to raise interest rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16 – Reuters poll

According to a Reuters poll, the survey on September 9 showed that 86 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. This is a dramatic shift from 65 of 93 economists expecting a hold in the previous poll.

Source  Fxstreet1789383078
Brent: Supply risks keep prices elevated – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team highlights a sharp move higher in Brent as escalating Middle East tensions threaten key supply routes. The report notes Brent’s jump above USD 107/bbl and warns that closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could endanger up to 4% of global Oil supply.

Source  Fxstreet1789378176
Japanese Yen weakens as rising risk aversion lifts US Dollar

USD/JPY rebounds after posting modest losses the previous day, trading around 154.60 during European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid rising oil prices and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.

Source  Fxstreet1789377052
Euro drops against Canadian Dollar amid energy shocks, growing Fed rate hike pressures

EUR/CAD depreciates further after paring its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 1.6030 during European hours on Monday.

Source  Fxstreet1789375382
ECB’s Kazimir: Will consider all options for next policy decision

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, said during the European trading session on Monday that he is “increasingly concerned about gas and power prices”.

Source  Fxstreet1789375079
ECB Simkus: Can't exclude action at any meeting

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Monday that the possibility of monetary policy actions in every upcoming meeting cannot be excluded.

Source  Fxstreet1789374279
Indian Rupee: Reserve buffer and carry dynamics – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists note that India’s FX reserves surged by $44.9bn to a record $785.7bn in early September, largely due to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mobilisation measures such as the FCNR(B) scheme.

Source  Fxstreet1789374069
Iran’s Foreign Ministry: Reports about nuclear activity in Iran are baseless

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said during the European trading session on Monday that reports about nuclear activity in Iran's Pickaxe mountain (Kolang Kouh) are baseless. The spokesperson added, “Saudi Arabia insisted for meeting between Tehran and Gulf powers in Oman not to take place.”

Source  Fxstreet1789372355
Canadian Dollar: CPI test for BoC inflation warning – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Canada’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will test the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) warning that upside inflation risks have increased. Headline CPI is expected to remain at 3.0% y/y, while core measures are seen hovering around 2%.

Source  Fxstreet1789371746
Canada CPI expected to show steady inflation in August

Canada’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday.

Source  Fxstreet1789371000
New Zealand Dollar declines as US Dollar gains on Fed rate hike bets

NZD/USD falls after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5780 during European hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support amid aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets for Wednesday’s decision following hotter US inflation reports.

Source  Fxstreet1789370589
Indonesian Rupiah slips due to stronger US Dollar, soaring oil prices

USD/IDR gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 17,700 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support amid aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets for Wednesday’s decision following hotter US inflation reports.

Source  Fxstreet1789369392
British Pound: Growth distortions and rate risks – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights unusually strong UK growth in the first quarter and weaker outcomes later in the year, driven largely by services. He argues this seasonal distortion complicates Bank of England policy signals, limiting conclusions from July’s robust data.

Source  Fxstreet1789369028
Equities: Resilience versus rates and Oil shock – Danske Bank

Danske Research Team notes that equities advanced on Friday, leaving the broader market only about 1% lower for the week despite hotter US CPI, higher front-end yields and a sharp Oil rally. Cyclicals outperformed defensives and the VIX stayed below 16.

Source  Fxstreet1789368297
ECB’s Lagarde: The current shock is longer-lasting

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in an interview on Saturday that the current energy shock is longer-lasting.

Source  Fxstreet1789367838
Brent: Middle East risks support prices – ING

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent is up around 3% as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shutdown intensifies supply concerns following recent attacks.

Source  Fxstreet1789366911

Japan Capacity Utilization down to 0.5% in July from previous 4.1%

Source  Fxstreet1789360653

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0.1%) in July

Source  Fxstreet1789360653

Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 3.9% (July) vs previous 4.1%

Source  Fxstreet1789360640
United States Dollar Index rises to near 99.50 as Fed rate hike bets increase

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the third consecutive day and trading around 99.30 during Asian hours on Monday.

Source  Fxstreet1789355391
Iran says commercial vessel struck in Strait of Hormuz

Iranian state media claimed an Iranian commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, killing one person, amid an ongoing conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran for control over the crucial energy chokepoint, CNN reported.

Source  Fxstreet1789340813

New Zealand Business NZ PSI increased to 51.2 in August from previous 50.6

Source  Fxstreet1789340299
Oman meeting between Gulf states and Iran delayed — Reuters

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said that a meeting in Oman between ‌Gulf countries and Iran to discuss possible agreements on the Strait of Hormuz, which had been scheduled for Monday, ‌has been postponed, Reuters reported on Sunday.

Source  Fxstreet1789338561
Singapore Dollar: Downside bias capped with 1.2705 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD has rebounded strongly, with short-term momentum pointing higher but key resistance at 1.2705 expected to limit gains.

Source  Fxstreet1789161660
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