Rabobank strategists expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% at the September 2 meeting and through 2027, despite markets pricing in around 17bp of tightening by year-end.

Rabobank’s Elwin de Groot discusses Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and its impact on US rates. He notes that Warsh signalled dissatisfaction with recent inflation and openness to further hikes, lifting near-term rate expectations while lowering longer-term premia.

Preliminary Germany Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August arrives at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), lower than estimates of 3.1%, but higher than the previous reading of 2.8%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Eurozone August headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to accelerate to 3.3% year-on-year on higher energy, with core inflation steady at 2.5%.

TD Securities’ macro team, including Andrew Kelvin and Jayati Bharadwaj, expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to adopt a dovish tone and provide limited guidance as trade tensions with the US rise.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, led by economist Lee Sue Ann, now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% at the September meeting.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that markets are reassessing Federal Reserve policy after Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, with higher US rate expectations lifting the Dollar and shifting focus to whether inflation remains sticky enough to warrant tightening.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose highlights that recent Polish fiscal and monetary developments are negative for the Polish Zloty.

EUR/CAD appreciates after two days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for a seventh straight meeting, as core inflation near 2% allows policymakers to cushion activity against US-Canada trade tensions.

Geoff Yu at BNY argues that upcoming German CPI and Eurozone flash CPI are critical for European Central Bank expectations, with markets already pricing a near-certain September hike.

USD/IDR extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around 17,790 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the upward momentum for USD/IDR remains capped by broader US Dollar (USD) weakness.

United Arab Emirates (UAE) Presidential Adviser Anwar Gargash said during the European trading session on Monday that political solutions must begin with de-escalation and restoring normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.

Commerzbank strategists highlight resilient domestic growth, supported by strong industrial production and investment activity ahead of the Q2 GDP release. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects growth to moderate to 6.7% in FY2026-27 while inflation remains contained at 5.0%.

Asian equity markets remain under pressure at the start of the week, as risk sentiment turns sour due to renewed tensions in the Middle East and a sharp increase in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Monday that its aerospace forces carried out retaliatory drone and ballistic missile strikes against US targets at two air bases in Jordan earlier in the day, Reuters reported.

NBC Economics and Strategy report that U.S. nominal personal income rose 0.4% in July, double expectations, while spending increased 0.2% and real disposable income climbed 0.4% with flat real spending.

The USD/CAD pair edges lower to around 1.3890 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,445 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal edges lower on a surprisingly hawkish speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. 

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) declined to 8.4% in July from previous 8.5%

China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8 in August, compared to 49.2 in the previous reading, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Monday. The reading came in above the market consensus of 49.7 in the reported month. 

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) came in at 0.6% below forecasts (0.7%) in July

China NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI remains at 49 in August

China NBS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (49.7) in August: Actual (49.8)

Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) came in at 1.8%, below expectations (2%) in 2Q

The EUR/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.1590 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges lower against the Euro (EUR) despite hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh.

South Korea Service Sector Output: -1.3% (July) vs previous 0.7%

US Central Command (CENTCOM) struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, following weeks of relative calm, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.

DBS Group strategists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow forecast Vietnam’s goods exports to maintain strong double-digit growth at 27% year-on-year in August 2026, led by electronics and supported by external demand.

DBS Group Research economists Radhika Rao and Chua Han Teng note that Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 5.0% to anchor inflation expectations and support the Peso.