TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and team revise their Fed outlook, now projecting no rate cuts in 2026 as persistent inflation pressures from the Iran conflict, elevated Oil and strained supply chains delay disinflation.

Rabobank's Global Strategist Michael Every outlines China’s central role in current geopolitical and financial dynamics. Every covers Trump’s visit to Beijing and potential outcomes from US-China talks, questions over a possible Grand Bargain, and China’s leverage over Iran.

Bank of England (BoE) MPC member, Huw Pill, said that he does not expect second-round effects to be as strong as in 2022, and also that the second-round effects are behavioral, affected by what the BoE does next. He spoke at an event hosted by NatWest on Thursday.

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.605% vs previous 3.61%

UOB’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew notes that United States (US) inflation pressures have broadened beyond energy, with April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both reaccelerating and core measures drifting further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Jeffrey Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Kansas City, said that Continued inflation is the most pressing risk to the economy.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change meets forecasts (85B) in May 8

United States Business Inventories registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.8%) in March

UOB’s Senior Economist Alvin Liew revises its Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook following hotter United States (US) inflation data.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes that NOK/SEK has gained around 11% year-to-date as the Norwegian central bank turned more hawkish while the Riksbank stayed on hold. They highlight sticky inflation and Norway’s energy-exporter status as supportive for the Norwegian Krone.

Russia Foreign Trade came in at $13.966B, above forecasts ($11.8B) in March

DBS Bank’s Philip Wee reviews recent FX volatility through the Pound, noting that GBP has been more resilient than EUR and CHF since Operation Epic Fury, helped by the UK’s lower exposure to the energy shock and higher policy rates.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance increased to 211K for the week ending May 9.

Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.5% on a monthly basis in April to $757.1 billion, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday. This reading followed the 1.6% increase (revised from 1.7%) recorded in March and came in line with the market expectation.

United States Import Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 2.1% to 4.2% in April

United States Continuing Jobless Claims below expectations (1.79M) in May 1: Actual (1.782M)

United States Export Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 5.6% to 8.8% in April

United States Retail Sales (YoY) up to 4.9% in April from previous 4%

United States Retail Sales Control Group: 0.5% (April) vs previous 0.7%

Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) came in at 1.9%, above expectations (1.4%) in March

United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above expectations (0.6%) in April

United States Export Price Index (MoM) above expectations (1.1%) in April: Actual (3.3%)

United States Import Price Index (MoM) registered at 1.9% above expectations (1%) in April

United States Retail Sales (MoM) in line with expectations (0.5%) in April

United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) increased to 0.8% in April from previous 0.6%

Societe Generale strategists note that the recent selloff in Gilts has eased after long-end yields spiked to multi-year highs on fears of looser fiscal rules under a more left-wing Labour leadership.

United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during the European trading session on Thursday regarding the outcome of the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping that both nations are trying to balance trade out.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said at a state banquet in Beijing that he had extremely positive and constructive discussions with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while calling him a “friend”.

Ireland HICP (MoM) above forecasts (0.4%) in April: Actual (0.5%)

Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 3.7% in April from previous 3.6%