TD Securities expects Norges Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, noting stubbornly sticky inflation and risks of re-acceleration after the Middle East crisis and energy price shock.

ABN AMRO economists revise their Eurozone outlook after the Iran-related energy shock, expecting weaker growth but notably higher inflation. They now see the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking twice in Q2, front‑loading tightening to prevent second‑round effects.

ING’s James Smith outlines scenarios for UK inflation, with current energy prices implying a brief 4% peak in autumn and ING’s base case of easing disruption pointing to a 3.5% peak in September.

Commerzbank’s Chief Economist Dr. Jörg Krämer warns that the sharp March drop in the German Ifo Business Climate Index reflects rising war-related risks rather than current damage.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene said on Wednesday that if their inflation forecasts are right, there is a risk inflation expectations will rise, per Reuters.

Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) declined to -1.9% in January from previous 0.4%

United States Import Price Index (YoY) increased to 1.3% in February from previous -0.1%

United States Export Price Index (YoY): 3.5% (February) vs 2.6%

United States Current Account above expectations ($-211B) in 4Q: Actual ($-190.7B)

United States Export Price Index (MoM) registered at 1.5% above expectations (0.5%) in February

United States Import Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in February: Actual (1.3%)

TD Securities strategist Andrew Kelvin notes that the Bank of Canada (BoC) is stressing downside risks to growth and appears willing to look through an energy-driven inflation shock.

Nomura analysts note that markets currently price around three rate hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB) by December 2026, implying a similar response to the Iran war energy shock as the Bank of England (BoE).

Deutsche Bank economist Marc Schattenberg notes that the ifo Business Climate Index deteriorated in March as German businesses turned more pessimistic on expectations, while their assessment of current conditions was unchanged.

India M3 Money Supply dipped from previous 11.5% to 10.7% in March 2

United States MBA Mortgage Applications climbed from previous -10.9% to -10.5% in March 20

Citing a source, who asked not to be named, Reuters reported on Wednesday that Pakistan has delivered the United States' proposal to Iran.

TD Securities notes that President Lagarde used the ECB and Its Watchers conference to outline how the Governing Council is assessing the Middle East conflict shock. The bank says the ECB is effectively playing for time, watching selling price expectations and wage trackers.

Nomura’s Global Markets Research team notes UK CPI inflation held at 3.0% year-on-year in February, matching Bank of England (BoE) forecasts. Services inflation stayed sticky, but core measures eased slightly.

Deutsche Bank analysts report that Euro Area activity is slowing, with the composite PMI dropping to a 10‑month low while still just above the 50 expansion threshold. They emphasize that survey details point to rising input prices, suggesting renewed inflation pressures.

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warned of higher inflationary pressures in the Eurozone in the next two months during European trading hours at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt on Wednesday.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that February UK CPI was broadly in line, but stronger services inflation and higher energy prices keep Bank of England (BoE) hawks vigilant.

UOB Economist Lee Sue Ann expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep the cash rate at 4.10% through 4Q26, after a split decision hike in March driven by Iran-related energy shocks and a strong labour market.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde signaled at the ECB and its Watchers conference at Goethe University in Frankfurt during European trading hours on Wednesday that the central bank is ready for monetary policy adjustments if inflation proves stronger.

TradingKey - UK inflation remained steady at 3% in February, hovering at its lowest level in 11 months before the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East heightened concerns about energy costs.Data re

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that developed market central banks, especially in Europe, are unlikely to deliver all priced rate hikes as weaker household demand emerges as a key second-round effect of the conflict. iFlow data show consumer discretionary as the worst-performing DM sector, while Utilities an

Deutsche Bank’s Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja notes that UK inflation data broadly matched expectations, with Headline CPI at 3% and stronger Services CPI driving a firmer Core CPI outcome.

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 25:

Germany’s IFO institute will publish its business survey for March on Wednesday at 09:00 GMT.

United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a came in at 0.8%, above expectations (0.5%) in February