News

G7 finance leaders warn of growing economic risks from the Middle East war

Finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) on Friday emphasized the urgent need to limit the economic repercussions of an ongoing Middle East conflict, highlighting a commitment to pursuing enduring peace.

Source  Fxstreet1776382435
China: Growth resilience and delayed easing – UOB

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen assesses China’s stronger 1Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and its implications for policy. Despite real GDP rising 5.0% year-on-year, the team keeps its 2026 growth forecast at 4.7% due to external headwinds and weak domestic demand.

Source  Fxstreet1776381840

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY): 2.7% (March) vs 1.5%

Source  Fxstreet1776379502

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) dipped from previous 1.4% to 0.7% in March

Source  Fxstreet1776379502
USD/MYR: Testing key supports on softer USD – OCBC

OCBC’s strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong observe USD/MYR nearing key support as markets price optimism over US–Iran negotiations and a softer US Dollar (USD).

Source  Fxstreet1776378780
CNY: Gradual appreciation path under policy control – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur says China’s 5.0% growth, despite weak investment and retail sales, underscores reliance on external demand, keeping authorities wary of strong CNY appreciation.

Source  Fxstreet1776376440
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with global counterparts to reaffirm US policy

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with multiple world leaders this week, detailing the US' agenda of securing trade deals and policies aimed largely at reversing damage done through the first year of the Trump administration, specifically on earth minerals and general trade.

Source  Fxstreet1776374884
Philippines: BSP seen delaying hike to June – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate at 4.25% in April, delaying a previously anticipated 25 bps hike to June.

Source  Fxstreet1776373920
China: Growth beat overshadowed by weak demand – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists highlight that China’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reached 5.0% year-on-year, at the top of the official target range, driven by strong exports and early bond quota usage.

Source  Fxstreet1776371820
South Korea: Trade shock risks for Won – BNY

BNY's Geoff Yu highlights that South Korea, Taiwan and Japan have become key surplus providers to the U.S. as China’s exports to America declined.

Source  Fxstreet1776369480
CNY: Chinese data support modest currency strength – Danske Bank

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team observes that Chinese GDP and industrial production surprised to the upside, while retail sales remained weak and unemployment ticked higher.

Source  Fxstreet1776367260
Carry trade: War-driven gains question durability – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister notes that G10 and Gelişen Piyasalar (EM) carry trades have delivered strong paper gains, helped by Iran-related market moves and high-yield currencies like the Brazilian Real and Mexican Peso.

Source  Fxstreet1776364680
Trump says the US is close to a deal with Iran

Speaking to reporters outside of the White House on Thursday, US President Donald Trump made a series of statements surrounding the ongoing confrontation with Iran.

Source  Fxstreet1776363766
Middle East: Conflict risks and GCC flows – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered Bank economists Madhur Jha and Ethan Lester assess how the Middle East conflict could affect global remittances.

Source  Fxstreet1776361920
Germany: Recovery risks from energy shock – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank economists Marc Schattenberg and colleagues discuss how higher Oil and gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict are weighing on the German economy.

Source  Fxstreet1776359157

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.56% to 3.595%

Source  Fxstreet1776353848
Fed’s Miran: I favor three, maybe four cuts this year

Stephen Miran, a member of the Federal Reserve (Fed), spoke in a moderated discussion about the United States (US) monetary policy at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee Global Macro Sessions in Washington, DC, on Thursday.

Source  Fxstreet1776352507
BoE: Rates seen on hold through 2026 – ING

ING economist James Smith argues that recent UK GDP strength is likely overstated and expects UK growth to slow as inflation moves towards 4% and real wages fall. He highlights rising energy prices and weaker corporate pricing power as headwinds.

Source  Fxstreet1776352033

Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 10.9% above expectations (9.8%) in February

Source  Fxstreet1776351471
India: Price pressures and rupee controls – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao assesses early post-conflict data for India, highlighting stronger wholesale inflation and modestly higher CPI. She notes that the Wholesale Price Index is more sensitive to commodity and imported costs and is likely to rise further.

Source  Fxstreet1776351095
Fed's Williams: War shock is about prices, but also unavailable commodities

John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) of New York, spoke in Midtown Manhattan on Thursday and said the Fed’s current interest-rate setting is well calibrated for an economy facing additional risks from the conflict in the Middle East.

Source  Fxstreet1776350507
Latin America: Diverging central bank paths – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas notes Latin American central banks are responding differently to renewed inflation risks. The easing cycle seems over in Chile and Peru, while Mexico’s central bank may deliver one last cut if Middle East tensions ease.

Source  Fxstreet1776350146

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 59B, above forecasts (55B) in April 10

Source  Fxstreet1776349803
China: Growth beats expectations – Standard Chartered

Standard Chartered economists Carol Liao, Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan note that China’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 5.0% year-on-year, above the 4.8% consensus, supported by strong exports and a rebound in fixed asset investment.

Source  Fxstreet1776348587

United Kingdom NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) climbed from previous 0.3% to 0.6% in March

Source  Fxstreet1776348128

United States Industrial Production (MoM) below forecasts (0.1%) in March: Actual (-0.5%)

Source  Fxstreet1776345382

United States Capacity Utilization registered at 75.7%, below expectations (76.3%) in March

Source  Fxstreet1776345317

United States Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 0.2% above expectations (0.1%) in March

Source  Fxstreet1776345315
USD/ZAR: Vulnerable as risk and Gold support Rand – Societe Generale

Societe Generale analysts highlight a strong rebound in global risk appetite, benefiting the South African Rand. USD/ZAR is seen as vulnerable after failing to hold above its 200-day moving average at 17.00, with scope to grind toward 16.00.

Source  Fxstreet1776344670

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $774.8B from previous $767.5B

Source  Fxstreet1776344491
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