Standard Chartered Global Research team discusses Euro area monetary policy, noting that core inflation has only edged up slightly since January and that higher yields pose downside risks to both growth and inflation. The authors judge that these factors reduce the chances of an October rate hike and expect the Governing Council to wait for new macroeconomic projections at the December policy meeting.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad warns France’s budget crisis is deepening and complicating Eurozone fiscal dynamics. A minority government’s deficit-reduction plan faces parliamentary hurdles, while the fiscal watchdog calls assumptions optimistic.

Nordea’s Global Macro team of Tuuli Koivu, Jan von Gerich and Anders Svendsen note Euro-area inflation accelerated in September, driven mainly by energy and food.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday at 12:30 GMT. 

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister argues that rising global bond yields and mounting government debt concerns are increasingly supporting the Swiss Franc over the Euro. He notes Switzerland’s debt brake and relatively sound public finances as key advantages.

European Central Bank (ECB) official and Finnish Central Bank Governor Olli Rehn said during the European trading session on Friday that elevated energy prices bring us closer to the central bank’s adverse scenario for inflation.

US 10-year Treasury note yield holds around 5.25% on Friday, pulling back from multi-decade highs as mounting concerns over France’s fiscal and political stability spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Despite this slight retreat, US yields remained near levels not seen since 2002.

EUR/CAD rises after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.6010 during the early European hours on Friday. Traders are turning their attention to the upcoming preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for September, set to be released later in the day.

USD/JPY declines after two days of gains, trading around 157.90 during Asian hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained momentum following stronger-than-expected inflation data from Tokyo, putting downward pressure on the pair.

USD/IDR has pared its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 17,910 during the Asian hours on Friday.

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

Japanese Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that she will beef up efforts to promote the Japanese version of the doge review of subsidies and funds, adding that there are about 200 existing funds, worth about 7 trillion yen.

Japan Monetary Base (YoY) up to 15.2% in September from previous -15.7%

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday that the central bank will need to raise short-term borrowing costs by at least another half of a percentage point to turn monetary policy "modestly restrictive" and get inflation back on track to the target.

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (2.4%) in September: Actual (2.7%)

The headline Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 2.7% YoY as compared to 1.9% in the previous month, the Statistics Bureau of Japan showed on Friday.

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) rose from previous 2% to 3% in September

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY): 2.7% (September) vs 1.9%

Japan Unemployment Rate registered at 2.5% above expectations (2.4%) in August

Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio meets expectations (1.18) in August

South Korea Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY) meets forecasts (2.9%) in September

The Vice Chairman, Philip Jefferson, continues to cross the wires. He said that “inflation has resulted from a cascade of shocks” at the Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he is unsure about an October rate hike but added that he is “open-minded about how fast the Fed should raise interest rates.”

The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, is on the wires, saying that the “Fed is fully committed to returning inflation to 2% target” and that future interest rate decisions “should be driven by data.”

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.85% to 3.89%

A Bank of Mexico (Banxico) survey of private economists surveyed between September 15-28, revised down their headline and core inflation forecasts, updated their projections for the USD/MXN exchange rate, and revised their projections for the future of interest rates set by the Mexican institution.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change meets expectations (64B) in September 25

In September, the US manufacturing sector's economy lost some momentum. Indeed, the ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened to 54.5 in September from 54.6, which was also lower than analysts' predictions of 55.0.

Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, adding a December 2026 rate hike after recent FOMC speeches.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes the DXY closed at 101.45 on Wednesday, delivering its best monthly gain since June with a 2.0% rise in September. Intraday Dollar strength was briefly tempered by softer US PCE data before recovering into the close.