Nomura’s Global Markets Research team, led by Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak, notes that Sweden’s 13 September election remains too close to call, with the centre-left only narrowly ahead.

Commerzbank economists note that August US CPI data were broadly in line with expectations but still too high for the Federal Reserve. They stress excessive underlying price pressure and say the Fed has already signaled readiness to hike.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the Bank of England (BoE) to keep its policy rate at 3.75% with a likely 6–3 vote, as easing United Kingdom (UK) wage and services inflation allow a pause.

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky outlines a busy Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) data calendar but stresses that the Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting is the key event. He expects rates to stay at 3.75% with dovish guidance, contrasting with still-hawkish market pricing.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid and team say the Fed’s decision on Wednesday is the main market event, with their economists expecting a 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% and now forecasting 75bps of hikes over the next seven months.

European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said recent energy-price developments have been "quite concerning" as officials consider further interest-rate increases after last week’s move, Bloomberg reported.

According to a Reuters poll, the survey on September 9 showed that 86 of 101 economists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16. This is a dramatic shift from 65 of 93 economists expecting a hold in the previous poll.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team highlights a sharp move higher in Brent as escalating Middle East tensions threaten key supply routes. The report notes Brent’s jump above USD 107/bbl and warns that closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could endanger up to 4% of global Oil supply.

USD/JPY rebounds after posting modest losses the previous day, trading around 154.60 during European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains amid rising oil prices and growing Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets.

EUR/CAD depreciates further after paring its recent gains from the previous day, trading around 1.6030 during European hours on Monday.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Governor of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS), Peter Kazimir, said during the European trading session on Monday that he is “increasingly concerned about gas and power prices”.

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of Lithuania's central bank, Gediminas Simkus, said during European trading hours on Monday that the possibility of monetary policy actions in every upcoming meeting cannot be excluded.

Societe Generale strategists note that India’s FX reserves surged by $44.9bn to a record $785.7bn in early September, largely due to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mobilisation measures such as the FCNR(B) scheme.

Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said during the European trading session on Monday that reports about nuclear activity in Iran's Pickaxe mountain (Kolang Kouh) are baseless. The spokesperson added, “Saudi Arabia insisted for meeting between Tehran and Gulf powers in Oman not to take place.”

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Canada’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will test the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) warning that upside inflation risks have increased. Headline CPI is expected to remain at 3.0% y/y, while core measures are seen hovering around 2%.

Canada’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be the focus of attention when published on Monday.

NZD/USD falls after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 0.5780 during European hours on Monday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support amid aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets for Wednesday’s decision following hotter US inflation reports.

USD/IDR gains ground for the third successive day, trading around 17,700 during the early European hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support amid aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets for Wednesday’s decision following hotter US inflation reports.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights unusually strong UK growth in the first quarter and weaker outcomes later in the year, driven largely by services. He argues this seasonal distortion complicates Bank of England policy signals, limiting conclusions from July’s robust data.

Danske Research Team notes that equities advanced on Friday, leaving the broader market only about 1% lower for the week despite hotter US CPI, higher front-end yields and a sharp Oil rally. Cyclicals outperformed defensives and the VIX stayed below 16.

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said in an interview on Saturday that the current energy shock is longer-lasting.

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent is up around 3% as Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shutdown intensifies supply concerns following recent attacks.

Japan Capacity Utilization down to 0.5% in July from previous 4.1%

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0.1%) in July

Japan Industrial Production (YoY): 3.9% (July) vs previous 4.1%

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground for the third consecutive day and trading around 99.30 during Asian hours on Monday.

Iranian state media claimed an Iranian commercial vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, killing one person, amid an ongoing conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran for control over the crucial energy chokepoint, CNN reported.

New Zealand Business NZ PSI increased to 51.2 in August from previous 50.6

Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said that a meeting in Oman between ‌Gulf countries and Iran to discuss possible agreements on the Strait of Hormuz, which had been scheduled for Monday, ‌has been postponed, Reuters reported on Sunday.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/SGD has rebounded strongly, with short-term momentum pointing higher but key resistance at 1.2705 expected to limit gains.