MUFG analysts note that Asia FX will stay driven by the US-Israel conflict with Iran and related energy disruptions, while macro policy divergence also gains importance.

United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0.1%) in December

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a came in at 56.6, above expectations (51.1) in February

Commerzbank Senior Economist Dr. Christoph Balz notes that US employment fell by 92,000 in February, far below expectations, with revisions also lowering prior months. He highlights possible distortions from a strike and cold weather.

Turkey Treasury Cash Balance: -94.42B (February) vs -246B

Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco, said that a month of data isn’t decisive, adding that inflation is above target right now, balancing risks of calculation at an interview with CNBC on Friday.

United States (US) President Donald Trump said that Iran’s only option is unconditional surrender and that after that happens, he will help select its next leader in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Retail Sales in the United States eased to $733.5 billion in January, the US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. This print followed the flat reading recorded in the previous month and came in above market expectation for a drop of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 3.2% in this period.

ABN AMRO expects Eurozone and German industrial production to rebound, helped by recovering domestic demand and stronger defence-related activity in Germany. However, it looks for a pullback in German factory orders after late-2025 strength.

United States U6 Underemployment Rate: 7.9% (February) vs previous 8%

United States Retail Sales (YoY) rose from previous 2.4% to 3.2% in January

United States Retail Sales Control Group increased to 0.3% in January from previous -0.1%

United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) in line with forecasts (0%) in January

United States Average Weekly Hours meets forecasts (34.3) in February

United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) came in at 3.8%, above expectations (3.7%) in February

United States Labor Force Participation Rate fell from previous 62.5% to 62% in February

United States Unemployment Rate came in at 4.4%, above forecasts (4.3%) in February

United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at -92K, below expectations (59K) in February

United States U6 Underemployment Rate fell from previous 8% to -6% in February

United States Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in February: Actual (0.4%)

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that Central and Eastern European FX remains relatively stable despite renewed rate market selling in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Tradingkey - Geopolitical uncertainty—particularly the escalating standoff with Iran—has kept investors uneasy. Early in the week, that tension stirred a flight to safety, pushing demand for U.S. Trea

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said that people will see a spike in gas prices but added that this situation is unlikely to cause sustained inflation.

TD Securities analysts expect February US Nonfarm Payrolls to slow to 60k, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.3%. They also look for a 0.2% monthly rebound in January Retail Sales. They anticipate modest bear flattening in US yields as markets stay focused on geopolitics and incoming data.

Danske Research Team expects US growth to cool further in 2026 despite a slightly higher GDP forecast, citing structural headwinds. Inflation is projected to remain contained, with both headline and core measures near 2.5%.

Greece Gross Domestic Product s.a (YoY) up to 2.4% in 4Q from previous 2%

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) registered at 1.2%, below expectations (1.3%) in 4Q

In an interview with the regional Catalan TV3 television on Friday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Jose Luis Escriva commented on the monetary policy outlook in the face of the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Greece Unemployment Rate (QoQ) rose from previous 8.2% to 8.3% in 4Q

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) came in at 0.2% below forecasts (0.3%) in 4Q