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Malaysian Ringgit: Growth supports range against US Dollar – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim report that Malaysia’s stronger-than-expected Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and subdued inflation support an unchanged policy rate of 2.75%. USD/MYR has remained within a 4.05–4.10 range, recently edging higher alongside crude oil prices.

Source  Fxstreet1784583420
Singapore Dollar: Range trade persists against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD is stuck in a tight range after recent sideways trading, with intraday action expected between 1.2900 and 1.2930. On a 1–3 week horizon, the bank still sees downside risks if 1.2860 breaks, while 1.2930 remains strong resistance.

Source  Fxstreet1784580960
Asia FX: Oil rebound pressures INR and THB – MUFG

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan highlights that higher Oil prices and persistent inflation risks are weighing on Asian currencies, with the Indian Rupee (INR) and Thai Baht (THB) underperforming against the US Dollar.

Source  Fxstreet1784578320
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

Source  Fxstreet1784577000
China: Chinese AI models challenge US-led economics – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank strategists analyses China’s AI (Artificial intelligence) ecosystem, noting that Chinese models are rapidly catching up in capability while being priced near mid-tier US systems.

Source  Fxstreet1784576040

Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below forecasts ($2060M) in June: Actual ($2M)

Source  Fxstreet1784574060
Trump declares retaliation against Iran automatic in Truth Social post

Donald Trump opened the week on Truth Social with a promise that every American soldier killed by Iran will be repaid many times over, a directive he says has been passed to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Daniel Caine, and every leader in the military.

Source  Fxstreet1784567043
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves resigns as Andy Burnham reshuffles cabinet

The United Kingdom entered a new period of political uncertainty after Rachel Reeves stepped down as Chancellor of the Exchequer as part of the first cabinet reshuffle led by newly appointed Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

Source  Fxstreet1784563238
Brent: Geopolitics support crude and cracks – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem highlight that Brent has surged as US-Iran tensions, Trump’s rhetoric and Houthi blockade threats lift risk premia. Crack spreads in Asia and US have outperformed as refined products stay tighter than crude.

Source  Fxstreet1784562840
LatAm FX: Carry supports resilience against US Dollar - BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu sees Latin American currencies underpinned by strong balance-of-payments positions and attractive carry, even as global equity nerves rise.

Source  Fxstreet1784558837
Euro: ECB pause seen limiting downside against US Dollar – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects the ECB to leave rates at 2.25% this week after June’s 25 bps hike, maintaining a data-dependent stance without new projections.

Source  Fxstreet1784556824
Canadian Dollar: Inflation cools as BoC stays patient – RBC

Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Abbey Xu notes that Canadian inflation eased in June, with Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% year-over-year and energy prices reversing part of their earlier surge.

Source  Fxstreet1784556183
Fed: On-hold stance with upside hike risk – TD Securities

TD Securities expects the Federal Reserve to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged through 2026, as inflation stays above target and the labor market stabilizes.

Source  Fxstreet1784554679
British Pound: Market calm under Burnham’s cautious agenda – ING

James Smith at ING highlights that UK markets have reacted calmly to Andy Burnham becoming prime minister, with risk premia contained as investors expect no major policy shocks this year.

Source  Fxstreet1784550963
Breaking: Canada's headline CPI rose by 2.8% YoY in June

Canada’s inflation has cooled a tad in June, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% from a year earlier, coming in below market expectations and down from the 3.2% increase recorded in May. On a monthly basis, prices declined by 0.4%.

Source  Fxstreet1784550678

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) unchanged at 0.2% in June

Source  Fxstreet1784550640

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.8%, below expectations (2.9%) in June

Source  Fxstreet1784550603

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at -0.4%, below expectations (-0.2%) in June

Source  Fxstreet1784550602

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY): 2.1% (June) vs previous 2.2%

Source  Fxstreet1784550602

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) fell from previous 0.6% to 0.1% in June

Source  Fxstreet1784550602
Norwegian Krone: Range trading view holds against Euro – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Jane Foley notes that softer Norwegian inflation has tempered expectations for further Norges Bank tightening, even after May’s 25 bps hike to 4.25%.

Source  Fxstreet1784550273
European Central Bank: Oil risks support a September rate hike – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s rates team expects higher oil prices and weak growth signals to shape Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. A July rate hike is effectively ruled out, while markets have fully priced in another 25bp move in September.

Source  Fxstreet1784549783
United Kingdom: Softer CPI supports prolonged BoE hold – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Julie Ioffe expects United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) to slow to 2.7% year-on-year in June, in line with consensus but below Bank of England (BoE) projections, as lower fuel prices offset sticky Services. Core CPI is seen at 2.6% and Services at 3.6%.

Source  Fxstreet1784549269
Iran: Mediators propose 10-day cessation of strikes to revive US-Iran interim deal

According to a senior Iranian official, mediators have proposed a 10-day cessation of strikes to find ways to revive the interim deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

Source  Fxstreet1784548312
UK PM Starmer: My work is done

United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Keir Starmer, the seventh PM since Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), delivers his resignation to King Charles at Buckingham Palace.

Source  Fxstreet1784544622
Japanese Yen: BoJ expectations skewed to upside – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad expects Japan’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) to edge higher across headline and core measures, with core ex fresh food and energy steady at 1.8%.

Source  Fxstreet1784541582
CEE FX: Risk-off keeps pressure on forint – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes that escalating US-Iran tensions are driving risk-off sentiment, overshadowing a light Central and Eastern Europe data calendar.

Source  Fxstreet1784540501
Hungarian Forint: Lags as MNB cuts loom – Societe Generale

Société Générale identifies the Hungarian forint as July’s main Central and Eastern European (CEE) laggard, with EUR/HUF moving back above 363 as markets anticipate another 25bp central bank of Hungary Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) rate cut to 5.75%.

Source  Fxstreet1784539931
Iran's Baghaei: Intermediaries share messages with Tehran over recent days

Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, said during the European trading session on Monday that Tehran pursues war and diplomacy based on its national interests when asked whether the door to talks with the United States (US) was now closed, Reuters repor

Source  Fxstreet1784539848
Australian Dollar rises against Japanese Yen due to RBA-BoJ rate differential

AUD/JPY rises after two days of losses, trading around 113.60 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of the interest rate decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank.

Source  Fxstreet1784539289
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