News

Australia: Labour market rebound masks emerging slack – UOB

UOB’s Lee Sue Ann highlights that Australia’s unemployment rate dipped to 4.4% in May with a 40.3k employment gain, mainly in part-time jobs, and participation rising to 66.7%.

Source  Fxstreet1782487444
Japan: Food and services signal steady inflation – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists Reo Sakida and Jin Kenzaki analyze June Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), noting that overall inflation dynamics in Japan changed little from May despite a modest upside surprise in headline and core readings.

Source  Fxstreet1782486466
South Korea: Retail support and FX divergence – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights that South Korean equities have delivered exceptional returns in 2026 while institutional investors remain net sellers, particularly from the Americas.

Source  Fxstreet1782485891
ECB: Another hike before eventual cuts – Commerzbank

Commerzbank strategists note that despite lower Oil and gas prices, European Central Bank (ECB) officials still signal at least one more rate increase, which the bank forecasts for September.

Source  Fxstreet1782485276
Brent: Oversold rebound risk for crude – TD Securities

Bart Melek at TD Securities argues that Strait of Hormuz disruptions have driven Oil inventories to historically low levels, leaving Brent oversold and vulnerable to a sharp short-covering rebound.

Source  Fxstreet1782484729
Malaysia: AI boom offsets energy shock risks – HSBC

HSBC strategists describe Malaysia as relatively resilient to elevated Oil prices thanks to its status as a net energy exporter and beneficiary of the AI (Artificial intelligence) hardware cycle.

Source  Fxstreet1782483201
Indonesian Rupiah : IDR recovery versus bond outflows – BNY

Geoff Yu at BNY identifies Indonesia as one of the clearest cross-asset signals in Emerging Markets (EM) APAC (Asia-Pacific).

Source  Fxstreet1782482637

United States UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations meets forecasts (4.6%) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782482413

United States Michigan Consumer Expectations Index registered at 50.7 above expectations (49.3) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782482410

United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 49.5, below expectations (50) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782482402

United States UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation below expectations (3.4%) in June: Actual (3.3%)

Source  Fxstreet1782482401
Fed: Rate hikes seen unlikely – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner argues that despite market expectations for further Fed tightening, falling Oil and gasoline prices should lower U.S. inflation and ease pressure for hikes.

Source  Fxstreet1782481782
Czech Koruna: Hawkish CNB supports koruna against Dollar pressure – ING

EMEA FX Strategist Frantisek Taborsky at ING says the Czech National Bank’s (CNB) June minutes confirm it as the most hawkish central bank in the region after its 25bp hike to 3.75%. Markets price another hike as core inflation risks persist.

Source  Fxstreet1782479731
Singapore: Broad-based strength with cautious MAS – HSBC

HSBC strategists highlight Singapore’s strong 1Q26 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, driven by robust electronics exports, construction and services, making it one of ASEAN’s fastest-growing economies. Despite the energy shock, inflation remains contained for now.

Source  Fxstreet1782479125

United States Wholesale Inventories above forecasts (0.2%) in May: Actual (0.3%)

Source  Fxstreet1782477041

United States Goods Trade Balance came in at $-105.8B below forecasts ($-85B) in May

Source  Fxstreet1782477007
Reserve Bank of Australia: Gradual cooling supports steady policy – UOB

UOB’s Lee Sue Ann notes that Australia’s May labour data show a rebound in headline employment but softer underlying conditions, with rising underemployment and falling hours worked.

Source  Fxstreet1782475662

Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ down to $0.638B in May from previous $3.351B

Source  Fxstreet1782475278

Mexico Trade Balance, $ dipped from previous $4.52B to $2.259B in May

Source  Fxstreet1782475203
Indonesia: Growth slows as energy shock bites – HSBC

HSBC strategists highlight Indonesia’s solid Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and contained inflation but warns that the energy shock is starting to weigh on activity and the balance of payments.

Source  Fxstreet1782474467
Economists Agree: Fed to hold rates in 3.50%-3.75% range this year – Reuters poll

According to the June 23-25 Reuters poll, 78 of 102 economists expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% the entire year, up from 72 economists who anticipated the same in the early June poll.

Source  Fxstreet1782474205

India Bank Loan Growth remains unchanged at 17.7% in June 1

Source  Fxstreet1782473468
South Korean Won bounces from lows at 1,550 USD in a suspected intervention

The Korean Won (KRW) trades higher on Friday after a knee-jerk reaction at the 1,550 level against the US Dollar (USD), triggering speculation about an intervention by the South Korean Ministry of Finance.

Source  Fxstreet1782469270

Italy Trade Balance non-EU: €3.843B (May) vs previous €3.846B

Source  Fxstreet1782468769

Italy 5-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.16% to 3.03%

Source  Fxstreet1782467115

Italy 10-y Bond Auction dipped from previous 3.77% to 3.63%

Source  Fxstreet1782467115

Italy 10-y Bond Auction: 1.63% vs previous 3.77%

Source  Fxstreet1782467091

Italy Consumer Confidence registered at 92.4, below expectations (94.5) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782464451

Italy Business Confidence meets forecasts (88.4) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782464451
Indian Rupee: Rangebound performance with debt inflows – Societe Generale

Societe Generale strategists notes that the Indian Rupee (INR) traded broadly flat over the week but outperformed regional peers thanks to debt portfolio inflows. They highlight that broad US Dollar (USD) strength overshadowed moves in Gold and Brent.

Source  Fxstreet1782462913
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