OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports USD/CNH briefly fell to its lowest level since February 2023 before rebounding after the PBoC set a higher-than-expected daily fix.

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz, Eli Nir, Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks expect August Core CPI to rise 0.19% m/m, with services driving gains and core goods offsetting. They project Core CPI at 2.3% y/y and Headline CPI steady at 3.4% y/y.

United States Consumer Credit Change registered at $18.06B above expectations ($11.7B) in July

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that the Japanese Yen (JPY) is modestly firmer, with USD/JPY extending losses through prior intervention lows near 155, a move seen as technically significant and potentially pointing to further Yen gains.

Argentina Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY): -4.9% (July) vs previous 2%

Deutsche Bank’s UK Chart Of The Week, authored by Sanjay Raja, Shreyas Gopal and Maui Brennan, argues that UK fiscal consolidation since the 2024 election is primarily tax-driven and heavily backloaded.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight a mixed US Dollar (USD) as markets weigh rising Oil prices, Japanese Yen (JPY) strength, and escalating US trade tensions.

United States 3-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 4.291% to 4.474%

The New York Fed revealed the August Survey of Consumer Expectations in which households' inflation expectations dipped in the medium-term, while expectations about the labor market remained mixed, as unemployment and job finding deteriorated, while job losses and quit expectations improved.

TD Securities notes that the Colombian Peso (COP) has been a top high-yield performer but sees its supportive mix of tight monetary and loose fiscal policy fading.

Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said on Tuesday that he does not think the United Kingdom (UK) economy is on the verge of a recession, with the latest data showing slightly stronger activity, according to Reuters.

BNY Markets strategist John Velis says a strong United States (US) jobs report has pushed expectations for a September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike back above 60%, despite Governor Christopher Waller’s more cautious comments.

Deutsche Bank’s Mark Wall and Michael Kirker report that survey respondents expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue hiking, with a strong bias toward another move in September and a terminal rate between 2.50% and 3.00%.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Brent Oil’s surge toward $100 is pressuring stocks and bonds while giving the Dollar a modest lift. However, he stresses that Friday’s US August Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be decisive for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses how United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor Healey’s pro-growth rhetoric and commitment to fiscal rules have left questions over funding, with EUR/GBP still range-bound.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that stronger second-quarter Eurozone growth and resilience to geopolitical and commodity shocks have kept the Euro (EUR) relatively expensive.

ING strategist Francesco Pesole reports that Sterling gained modestly, helped by Chancellor John Healey’s first major speech stressing fiscal discipline and keeping long-end gilt moves aligned with global bond selling.

Societe Generale analysts note EUR/HUF is trading within a base formation but continues to struggle with the 200-day moving average around 371, seen as crucial resistance.

USD/IDR depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 17,670 during European hours on Tuesday. The pair loses ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) is drawing support from positive economic sentiment following reassuring remarks from Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights that Hungarian inflation rebounded to 1.3% in August but stayed below expectations and the NBH’s forecast, with price growth seen remaining under target this year.

Danske Bank notes European equities were broadly flat on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 unchanged and OMX Nordic slightly higher, while Asian markets rallied in thin trading as US markets were closed for Labor Day.

Austria Trade Balance rose from previous €-635.5M to €-29.2M in June

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Hunter said on Tuesday that the housing market is an important transition mechanism for monetary policy. Hunter added that the central bank is looking to cool things off in both the housing market and the broader economy.

China's Trade Balance for August, in US Dollar (USD) terms, arrives at $119.09 billion, almost in line with $119.1 billion estimates, but higher than the July reading of $112.5 billion.

China Trade Balance USD came in at $119.09B, below expectations ($119.1B) in August

China Imports (YoY) came in at 28.2% below forecasts (30%) in August

China Exports (YoY) in line with forecasts (25%) in August

China Trade Balance CNY above forecasts (795B) in August: Actual (809.3B)

China Exports (YoY) CNY: 18.6% (August) vs 17.8%

Citi Mexico released its September “Expectations Survey,” in which most private economists expect the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to hold rates unchanged, while the exchange rate is forecast to end below the 18.00 threshold by the end of 2026.