Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose notes that the Hungarian Forint (HUF) has only partially retraced its post-election gains and is expected to recover if global risk conditions stabilise, with EUR/HUF seen returning towards 350–355 in coming months.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Norwegian Krone (NOK) is trading mixed as firmer Oil offsets the drag from reduced Norges Bank tightening expectations.

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen comments that weaker United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a drop in labour supply have reduced urgency for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, though policy remains data‑dependent.

Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem argue that Copper has shifted into a policy-driven trade as Section 232 tariffs reshape the COMEX-LME arbitrage.

Nomura’s Josie Anderson, George Buckley and Andrzej Szczepaniak expect Norges Bank to keep its policy rate at 4.25% at the August meeting, citing softer underlying inflation and benign domestic data.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains one of the most attractive G10 currencies thanks to favorable carry and a hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

TradingKey - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12. Following an unexpected decrease of 23,000 in July nonfarm payrolls and

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that negotiations between Iran and Oman over a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz remain finely balanced, with Tehran linking any lasting arrangement to broader demands on the US.

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky says Romania’s unchanged Baa3 rating at Moody’s and prior Fitch decision should ease pressure after recent ROMGBs underperformance.

EUR/CAD inches higher after three days of losses, trading around 1.6120 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding its ground, driven primarily by a resilient Euro (EUR) following positive Eurozone economic sentiment.

HSBC Asset Management reviews recent coordinated intervention by Japanese and US authorities to support the Japanese Yen, recalling the sharp carry-trade unwind during the previous episode two years ago.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to record highs last week. The rally was reinforced by a renewed AI (Artificial intelligence) trade, with semiconductor stocks posting particularly strong gains.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister analyses NOK/SEK through oil-price sensitivity and rate expectations. He finds the Norwegian Krone reacts more strongly to oil than the Swedish Krona, while Riksbank expectations adjust more to oil shocks than Norges Bank.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad argues that the British Pound (GBP) requires a stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) print to gain upside traction.

Deutsche Bank strategists report that falling energy prices and softer Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations helped push the S&P 500 and other major equity indices to new record highs last week.

The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a negative note against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the week. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 95.22 as oil prices extend their recovery move and the US Dollar regains ground after a weak Friday.

USD/IDR holds gains after registering over 0.5% losses in the previous trading day, hovering around 17,860 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair continues to trade with an upward bias as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces pressure following the release of domestic Consumer Confidence data.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.70 during the Asian hours on Monday.

Indonesia Consumer Confidence fell from previous 117.8 to 116.8 in July

Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥1512B) in June: Actual (¥-92.3B)

Japan Current Account n.s.a. below expectations (¥1512B) in June: Actual (¥923B)

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) published the Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 monetary policy meeting, which showed a split between members wanting to hold rates to assess the impact of the last rate hike and others pushing to continue or accelerate tightening. Key findings noted below.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates after registering over 4% gains in the previous trading day, hovering around $76.40 per barrel during the Asian hours on Monday.

DBS Group Research anticipates China’s credit demand to stay weak in July, with new Yuan loans around RMB 10.8 billion and M2 growth at 8% year-on-year. Corporate and household medium- to long-term lending are likely to soften amid cautious borrowing and mortgage prepayments.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann see USD/CNH confined to a narrow intraday range, with flat momentum suggesting consolidation between 6.7450 and 6.7550.

DBS Group Research expects Singapore’s final 2Q26 GDP to be revised up to 5.9% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, driven by stronger manufacturing and services.

A US official says that there is progress in Oman-Iran talks and that a deal could be signed soon, according to Reuters. Once the deal is announced, this would restore commercial shipping, and the US would lift the blockade. 

Standard Chartered’s Jonathan Koh and Edward Lee now expect Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate unchanged at the 27 August meeting, abandoning a previously projected hike.

US Treasury yields drop across the curve amid growing speculation that the Oman-Iran deal is about to be sealed, which has so far pushed energy prices lower, while investors also digest a “bad” Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US.