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Turkey: Disinflation risks rise with energy shock – ING

ING’s Chief Economist for Turkey, Muhammet Mercan, notes that April inflation rose more than expected, with annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 32.4%, well above the Central Bank of Turkey’s 16% target.

Source  Fxstreet1777909680
India: IIP Growth mix signals uneven demand – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu notes that India’s March Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth slowed to 4.1% year-on-year from 5.2% in February, the weakest in five months, with the eight-core sector contracting and power output softening.

Source  Fxstreet1777907076
Fed: Gradual easing risks delay – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold until September as it assesses the Iran conflict’s impact and monitors inflation.

Source  Fxstreet1777906400
UK: Local vote risk for Starmer – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists flag rising political risk around Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of 7 May local elections. A weak result could trigger a leadership challenge, though the lack of a clear successor may delay moves until the September conference.

Source  Fxstreet1777904149
GBP: Higher inflation keeps BoE on tightening path – BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas economists expect United Kingdom (UK) growth to slow to 0.7% in 2026 from 1.4% in 2025, with quarterly expansion dropping to about 0.1%.

Source  Fxstreet1777903225

United States Factory Orders (MoM) above expectations (0.5%) in March: Actual (1.5%)

Source  Fxstreet1777903202
EUR/CHF: Short-term bounce, longer-term decline – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects EUR/CHF to rise in coming months as the Euro (EUR) recovers and markets push back Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate hikes, with the bank’s strategy combining verbal intervention and steady rates.

Source  Fxstreet1777901537
US Treasury Secretary Bessent: US is opening up Strait of Hormuz

In an interview with Fox News on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is opening up the Strait of Hormuz and added that they have "absolute control" of it, per Reuters.

Source  Fxstreet1777901188

Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 49 to 52.6 in April

Source  Fxstreet1777899601
BoC: Policy on extended hold – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Robert Both and Emma Lawrence expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep the Overnight Rate at 2.25% through 2026, before lifting it back to a 2.75% neutral level in early 2027.

Source  Fxstreet1777899168
Euro area: Weak confidence clouds activity outlook – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists note that firm and consumer confidence fell more than expected in April, with Commission indices at multi‑year lows. Despite slightly positive 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP), domestic demand appears subdued and credit conditions are tightening.

Source  Fxstreet1777897980

South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales dipped from previous 58060 to 47979 in April

Source  Fxstreet1777897792
ECB: June leaning shapes Euro outlook – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is now clearly leaning toward a June rate move, contrasting with the Bank of England's (BoE) preference to wait for fuller confirmation. He sees this directional guidance as a break from the prior “policy in a good place” stance.

Source  Fxstreet1777893866
Senior official denies US Ship was hit by Iranian missiles – Axios

Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported on Monday, that a senior US official denied that a US was ship was hit by Iranian missiles.

Source  Fxstreet1777891778
Two missiles hit US warship near Jask island – Fars News Agency

Iran's Fars News Agency reported on Monday that a US warship that ignored Iran's warning and intended to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit by two missiles when it was sailing near Jask island, per Reuters.

Source  Fxstreet1777889714
ECB's Villeroy: Critical mass of data needed before tightening policy

In his annual letter to French President Emmanuel Macron on the state of the economy on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB needs gather a "critical mass of data" suggesting that inflation is becoming entrenched before tightening the policy

Source  Fxstreet1777887756
Equities: Profits and valuations diverge – HSBC

HSBC Asset Management notes that US equities are at new highs while maintaining their price-earnings premium, supported by robust profit growth expectations around 15% for 2026.

Source  Fxstreet1777887628
BoE: Expected to on prolonged hold – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists report that the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left Bank Rate at 3.75% with an 8–1 vote. Their base case is for rates to remain unchanged through 2026, though further hikes of 50–75 bps are possible if the US‑Iran conflict persists.

Source  Fxstreet1777887033
ECB: Single June rate hike expected – UOB

UOB strategists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep policy broadly steady but deliver a single 25-basis-point rate hike at the 11 Jun meeting.

Source  Fxstreet1777886390
ECB's Kazimir: Policy tightening in June is all but inevitable

European Central Bank policymaker Peter Kazimir said on Monday that although they are not committed to any fixed interest rate path, they remain firm in their policy approach.

Source  Fxstreet1777885467
NOK/SEK: Diverging Nordic paths versus energy – BNY

BNY’s Bob Savage argues that the central bank of Norway, Norges Bank’s bias to tighten, driven by domestic and energy-related strength, is largely priced and may not extend Norwegian Krone (NOK) gains.

Source  Fxstreet1777885448
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence edges higher to -16.4 in May

Investor morale in the Eurozone improved slightly in May, with the Sentix Investor Confidence Index edging higher to -16.4 from -19.2 in April.

Source  Fxstreet1777884916
ECB SPF: Inflation seen averaging 2.7% in 2026

According to the European Central Bank's (ECB) quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), inflation rate in the Eurozone is projected to average 2.7% in 2026 before softening to 2.1% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.

Source  Fxstreet1777882038
ECB: Data risks complicate policy path – Societe Generale

Societe Generale economists highlight that Euro area growth nearly stalled in 1Q, with 0.1% qoq GDP and weak confidence indicators. They argue downside risks to growth are rising even as headline inflation is set to climb further.

Source  Fxstreet1777881968

Turkey Exports up to $25.4B in April from previous $21.9B

Source  Fxstreet1777881807

Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 (April) vs previous 54.5

Source  Fxstreet1777881601

Austria Unemployment Rate: 7.5% (April)

Source  Fxstreet1777879872

Austria Unemployment: 320.3K (April) vs previous 322.7K

Source  Fxstreet1777879869

Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 48.7 to 51.7 in April

Source  Fxstreet1777878901
Forex Today: Markets cling to cautious stance as Strait of Hormuz tensions heat up

Here is what you need to know on Monday, May 4:

Source  Fxstreet1777878849
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