TD Securities economists Eli Nir and Oscar Munoz analyze upcoming BEA methodology changes to United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation for portfolio management, legal services, and computer software & accessories.

Nordea strategists Jan von Gerich, Tuuli Koivu and Anders Svendsen note that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its deposit rate at 2.25% but signalled further tightening. They still forecast three additional 25bp hikes, now at a quarterly pace, taking the deposit rate to 3% by March 2027.

TD Securities’ Gennadiy Goldberg and Molly Brooks note that market pricing for Fed hikes has risen alongside higher Oil prices and US-Iran tensions, but they judge a July move as unlikely.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

ING’s economists describe United Kingdom (UK) public finances as strained by rising spending pressures and high debt interest, despite ongoing fiscal consolidation via frozen tax thresholds and falling gilt issuance.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), explains the ECB's decision to leave key rates unchanged at the July policy meeting and responds to questions from the press.

There were 187,000 Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending July 18, the US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday. This print followed the previous week's reading of 209,000 and came in much better than the market expectation of 212,000.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that the Japanese Yen remains historically weak, with USD/JPY above 162 and EUR/JPY near 186, but still forecasts gradual appreciation over the coming quarters.

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.07%, below expectations (0.1%) in July

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in July

India M3 Money Supply: 12.5% (July 6) vs previous 13%

Lee Hardman at MUFG notes that Euro-zone yields have climbed to fresh year-to-date highs ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, with markets pricing 2–3 further rate hikes and almost fully discounting another move in September.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur sees it as almost certain that South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will hike 25 bps to 7.25%, reversing a third of its 2024–25 easing after inflation re-accelerated on fuel and core components above target.

TD Securities strategists look for Canadian Retail Sales to rise 1.1% month-on-month in May, slightly above the 1.0% consensus, driven by higher gasoline prices and a rebound in core spending.

Societe Generale strategists note that Oil and Natural Gas prices have surged since the June European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, reversing optimism that followed the US–Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU).

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues the European Central Bank (ECB) can delay action today but will keep a hawkish tone as inflation stays near 3% and core pressures may even rise.

BNY’s Geoff Yu argues that while Norwegian Krone (NOK) should find demand from improved Oil and gas terms of trade and a relatively hawkish Norges Bank, elevated holdings and modest FX purchases limit upside.

ING’s Michiel Tukker expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep the deposit rate at 2.25% at the upcoming meeting, with a September hike seen as likely as Oil prices rise and markets already price in around 23bp.

United States (US) Secretary of State Marco Rubio warns that military attacks on Iran could intensify further, as the nation is not ready to make a deal.

China FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY) up to -5% in June from previous -8.6%

ING analysts Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole and James Smith argue Sterling’s summer strength is driven by positioning, carry and possible M&A flows rather than UK fundamentals.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, July 23:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility steady at 2.4% and 2.25%, respectively. The decision will be announced on Thursday at 12:15 GMT.

Rabobank strategist Michael Every warns that escalating conflict around Hormuz and the Red Sea could push Brent above its current USD 95.5 level and widen crack spreads further.

United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note after USD/JPY hit a 40‑year high above 163, now expect intraday consolidation between 162.80 and 163.30 as recent price action offers few fresh clues.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight a mixed performance across global equities over the last 24 hours. United States (US) stocks were softer, with the S&P 500 slightly lower, while Asian indices such as KOSPI, Hang Seng and Nikkei advanced and European equities saw gains led by STOXX 600.

Turkey Consumer Confidence rose from previous 87.9 to 89.8 in July

France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (101) in July

The USD/CAD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.4060 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A rise in crude oil prices provides some support to the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).