News

Singapore Dollar: Range bias holds near recent lows against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/SGD closed at 1.2960 after a volatile session, with intraday swings between 1.2938 and 1.2975. For the coming day, he expects the pair to stay confined within a narrow 1.2935–1.2975 band.

Source  Fxstreet1783020840
USMCA: Prolonged negotiation cycle, not rupture – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish expects a drawn-out USMCA negotiation process rather than agreement expiry, highlighting comments from Mexican and US officials that downplay irreconcilable differences.

Source  Fxstreet1783018307
Asian FX: Scope for sharp rebound on US pressure – BNY

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that clients have largely capitulated on Japanese Yen (JPY) and South Korean Won (KRW) longs as these currencies stay weak versus US Dollar (USD) and Chinese Yuan (CNY).

Source  Fxstreet1783009380
Fed Speaks Out Intensively After Labor Market Cools. Another Official Says Inflation Will Cool Following Warsh’s Speech

TradingKey - On July 2, Eastern Time, following two consecutive unexpectedly weak labor market reports, another Federal Reserve official stated that the current restrictive monetary policy stance will

Source  Tradingkey1783007294
Germany: Reform drive supports growth narrative – ING

ING’s Carsten Brzeski analyses a new German government reform package focused on cutting red tape, increasing labour market flexibility, and capping healthcare and pension costs to restore competitiveness.

Source  Fxstreet1783007280

United States 4-Week Bill Auction fell from previous 3.61% to 3.605%

Source  Fxstreet1783006361
Federal Reserve: Jobs slowdown supports steady rates – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner notes that weaker US employment data for June and downward revisions to prior months reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike rates at the late-July meeting.

Source  Fxstreet1783005514
Indonesia: Stabilising FX and bonds as oil eases – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Radhika Rao notes that Indonesia’s onshore FX and bond markets have stabilised following a correction in global Oil prices, though gains are modest.

Source  Fxstreet1783003632

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change above expectations (81B) in June 26: Actual (87B)

Source  Fxstreet1783002602
BoE’s Mann: Activist move can bring inflation expectations and outcomes toward 2% target

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday that an “activist move” may be needed if inflation expectations and outcomes move unfavorably, according to a speech text released by the BoE ahead of an event hosted by French bank Natixis.

Source  Fxstreet1783002593
Thailand: Narrow rebound, steady BoT rate – UOB

UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya see Thailand’s 2Q26 starting stronger than feared, driven by exports and technology-linked investment, but with domestic demand still weak.

Source  Fxstreet1783002430
Central banks: Framework guidance shift reshapes analysis – Rabobank

Rabobank strategist Michael Every highlights how Fed Chair Warsh and other major central bankers at Sintra are signalling a structural shift away from traditional forward guidance towards data-driven “framework guidance.” Every stresses that evolving AI, new inflation measures and reduced public tou

Source  Fxstreet1783001322

United States Factory Orders (MoM) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-1.8%) in May

Source  Fxstreet1783000801
Mexico: USMCA review cycle extends uncertainty – Societe Generale

Societe Generale’s Dev Ashish argues that the US decision to opt for annual USMCA reviews instead of a 16-year extension prolongs policy uncertainty for Mexico while leaving near-term trade flows intact.

Source  Fxstreet1783000435

Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI up to 53 in June from previous 52.9

Source  Fxstreet1782999002
US Dollar: Softer jobs and inflation outlook weigh on rate expectations – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner highlights that US nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June, far below consensus, with prior months revised down by 74,000. Monthly job growth has been slowing and the six-month average is expected to turn lower.

Source  Fxstreet1782998527
Non-Farm Payrolls Shock: US June Jobs Rise by Only 57,000, Gold Breaks $4,130, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Cool

TradingKey - Affected by the US Independence Day holiday, the June non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for release on Friday, was brought forward to Thursday, and the results unexpectedly c

Source  Tradingkey1782997763
Eurozone: Minimum reserves debate reshapes liquidity – ING

ING strategists Benjamin Schroeder and Michiel Tukker discuss how a potential increase in the Minimum Reserve Requirement (MRR) by the ECB could tighten Eurozone liquidity and reduce ECB losses.

Source  Fxstreet1782997352

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ dipped from previous $743.8B to $715.2B

Source  Fxstreet1782997261

Singapore Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 (June) vs 51

Source  Fxstreet1782997222
Fed's Daly: There is a scenario where Fed has to fight inflation

While speaking at a Banco de España conference in Santander, Spain, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that she doesn't see any signs of a lack of economic resiliency in the US, despite above-target inflation, per Reuters.

Source  Fxstreet1782996378
Germany: Bureaucracy cuts and tax tweaks – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Dr. Ralph Solveen reviews Germany’s new reform package agreed by CDU/CSU and SPD, focusing on bureaucracy reduction, labor market changes, and modest tax adjustments.

Source  Fxstreet1782996276
United States Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215K last week

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance shrank to 215K for the week ending June 27.

Source  Fxstreet1782995975

United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 1.814M, above forecasts (1.81M) in June 19

Source  Fxstreet1782995452

United States U6 Underemployment Rate declined to 7.9% in June from previous 8.1%

Source  Fxstreet1782995407

United States Unemployment Rate registered at 4.2%, below expectations (4.3%) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782995406

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average dipped from previous 224.25K to 222K in June 26

Source  Fxstreet1782995406

United States Labor Force Participation Rate fell from previous 61.8% to 61.5% in June

Source  Fxstreet1782995406

United States Initial Jobless Claims below forecasts (220K) in June 26: Actual (215K)

Source  Fxstreet1782995406

United States Nonfarm Payrolls registered at 57K, below expectations (110K) in June

Source  Fxstreet1782995405
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