BNY’s Geoff Yu highlights strong flows into EM food producers as supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and higher fertilizer and energy costs push food prices up policymakers’ agendas.

United States 5-Year Note Auction climbed from previous 3.955% to 4.182%

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economists Nathan Janzen and Annie Zheng highlight that Canada’s current high unemployment rate is masking longer-term labour supply challenges.

Russia Industrial Output above expectations (1.6%) in April: Actual (1.9%)

TD Securities’ James Rossiter argues that recent UK GDP data may overstate underlying momentum due to problematic seasonal adjustment by the ONS.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates in June, largely as a symbolic move, with markets already pricing this in.

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that AUD/NZD has pulled back sharply after hitting its highest level since 2013, putting the year-long uptrend at risk.

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 13, above forecasts (4) in May

Commerzbank’s Barbara Lambrecht highlights that the global Copper market showed a large surplus in Q1 2026 as refined output surged, especially in China and the DR Congo.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a clear hawkish hold on Wednesday, keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25% while strongly signalling that rate hikes are likely in the coming months.

United States Redbook Index (YoY): 9% (May 22) vs 8.1%

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Hungary held its base rate at 6.25% but signalled a dovish shift, with June cuts fully priced and markets now seeing a terminal rate near 5.25%.

Iran's State TV reported that it has a draft of the initial unofficial framework of the Memorandum of Understanding with the United States (US).

Private-sector hiring in the US has cooled in early May. According to the NER Pulse, the weekly companion to the ADP National Employment Report, companies added an average of 35.75K jobs per week in the four weeks ending May 9.

United States ADP Employment Change 4-week average: 35.75K (May 2) vs previous 42.25K

Societe Generale’s commodity team notes Brent has lost its 50-day moving average and is testing support around $96.

BNY’s Bob Savage highlights that global equities extend gains on AI optimism and Iran peace talks.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD/USD slid toward 0.7136 and is expected to settle closer to 0.7000, consistent with Australia–US 2‑year yield spreads.

Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose reports that Hungary’s MNB kept rates at 6.25%, citing Iran-related inflation risks but acknowledging room to cut after a strong Forint rally.

TD Securities reports that the RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25% in a split decision, with Governor Breman’s casting vote preserving the hold.

United States MBA Mortgage Applications fell from previous -2.3% to -8.5% in May 22

Danske Research Team notes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.25%, matching expectations, but signalled a need for faster tightening. They now project at least two more hikes by year-end, which lifted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and front-end yields.

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its Brent crude outlook as it assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several more months, potentially reopening in September.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price depreciates nearly 4% after registering over 3% gains in the previous day, trading around $88.90 per barrel during the European hours on Wednesday. Crude oil prices decline as traders weigh potential progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement.

Commerzbank analyst Norman Liebke notes that Gold and Silver have dropped as renewed US strikes in the Gulf reinforced the inverse link with Oil. Higher energy prices raise inflation and rate fears, weighing on non-yielding metals.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux and colleagues note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held rates at 2.25% but turned more hawkish, while Australia’s softer Consumer Price Index (CPI) and underwhelming jobs data have markets trimming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations.

Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) increased to 2% in March from previous 0.6%

Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) climbed from previous 0.5% to 4.4% in March

Austria UniCredit Bank Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.7 in May from previous 51.2

Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, May 27: