The Vice Chairman, Philip Jefferson, continues to cross the wires. He said that “inflation has resulted from a cascade of shocks” at the Darden School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he is unsure about an October rate hike but added that he is “open-minded about how fast the Fed should raise interest rates.”

The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, is on the wires, saying that the “Fed is fully committed to returning inflation to 2% target” and that future interest rate decisions “should be driven by data.”

United States 4-Week Bill Auction climbed from previous 3.85% to 3.89%

A Bank of Mexico (Banxico) survey of private economists surveyed between September 15-28, revised down their headline and core inflation forecasts, updated their projections for the USD/MXN exchange rate, and revised their projections for the future of interest rates set by the Mexican institution.

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change meets expectations (64B) in September 25

In September, the US manufacturing sector's economy lost some momentum. Indeed, the ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened to 54.5 in September from 54.6, which was also lower than analysts' predictions of 55.0.

Rabobank's RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets updates its United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook, adding a December 2026 rate hike after recent FOMC speeches.

UOB Global Economics & Markets Research notes the DXY closed at 101.45 on Wednesday, delivering its best monthly gain since June with a 2.0% rise in September. Intraday Dollar strength was briefly tempered by softer US PCE data before recovering into the close.

According to a report from the US Department of Labour (DOL) released on Thursday, the number of US citizens submitting new applications for unemployment insurance decreased to 197K for the week ending September 26.

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann argued on Thursday that they can't rely on risk premia to do the work of monetary policy and added that they need to raise the bank rate, per Reuters.

Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights Korea’s strong September export performance, driven by an AI-led semiconductor boom and a record monthly trade surplus.

Kit Juckes at Societe Generale highlights that a proposed US diesel export ban would likely push up European diesel prices and weigh on the Euro and other European currencies. He points to rising bond yields and Oil prices as additional headwinds and questions whether consensus Eurozone growth forecasts will be revised lower if these pressures persist.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari told Bloomberg on Thursday that if they keep raising rates, they will put different pressure on different parts of the economy, per Reuters.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights a deepening global bond market selloff driven by tighter expected policy paths and rising real term premia.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes argues that recent US policy proposals around diesel exports and higher yields are reinforcing a stronger Dollar outlook. He notes that talking down the Dollar has failed since the Federal Reserve raised rates, and that capital inflows driven by higher US yields should keep supporting the Dollar, especially as Europe faces growth risks in a global energy crisis.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid describes severe stress in US Treasuries, with 10-year and 30-year yields pushing to post-2000s highs despite dovish PCE revisions.

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets highlights how the European Union is reshaping trade policy, including linking market access for Thai canned tuna to EU-caught fish and forging a new partnership with Canada on firefighting and critical minerals.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets discusses rising political scrutiny of central banks. The report argues central banks are a key pillar of the political economy facing potential role changes.

US Treasury yields climbed to 24-year highs amid growing concerns over persistent, energy-driven inflation that could prompt tighter monetary policy. At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, while the 30-year yield reached 5.67%.

Rabobank Research Global Economics & Markets reports that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is reluctant to continue rapid rate hikes, with September meeting notes revealing internal divisions and concerns over weak private consumption.

Rabobank’s RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US Treasury yields ended Q3 sharply higher, with 10-year and 30-year yields reaching levels last seen in 2002. The report highlights concerns from major market commentators about bonds and equities, and warns that another phase shift higher in long-dated US yields could take them into ranges seen during the late Cold War period.

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 17,980 during European hours on Thursday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) rises amid elevated oil prices, while Treasury yields continue to offset the support from lower Fed rate-hike odds.

Commerzbank analysts Michael Pfister and Tatha Ghose examine how Euro political risks, especially in France, Spain and Italy, transmit to EUR/USD and a trade-weighted Euro.

Societe Generale’s Jan Groen reviews August US inflation and growth data, highlighting that Core PCE came in softer than expected but underlying price pressures in services remain firm. Benchmark revisions lowered measured inflation but still show it above levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s target. Stronger consumption and GDP revisions suggest the US economy entered 2H26 with more momentum, keeping an October rate hike possible.

AUD/JPY halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 109.80 during Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains stronger as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of domestic Trade Balance data.

Australia's Trade Balance narrowed to A$495M MoM in August, followed a surplus of A$1,351M in the previous reading (revised from A$1,923M), according to the latest foreign trade data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.  

Australia Trade Balance (MoM) declined to 495M in August from previous 1923M

Australia Imports (MoM): 5.8% (August) vs -2.5%

Australia Exports (MoM) climbed from previous -3.3% to 3.7% in July