Fed Chair Warsh's last word before the quiet period was that he doesn't prejudge meetings, and the Dollar Index is lower on it, though the drop stalled near 101.60 twice. It fell from just above 102.00 to about 101.85 in one five-minute bar as he spoke, then slid to its lowest since October 1.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar is broadly unchanged after Fed Chair Warsh avoided fresh policy guidance, reinforcing market pricing for a low chance of an October hike.

ING’s Chris Turner notes that the Dollar is benefiting from a flatter US yield curve as hot inflation data keeps short-dated rates elevated while long-dated Treasuries recover. He argues this backdrop typically favors the Dollar versus activity and emerging market currencies.

The US Dollar (USD) has depreciated sharply against most of its major peers over the last two days, hammered by a mix of lower US Treasury yields and dovish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong discuss how AI-linked investment has become a key pillar of US growth, equities, yields and Dollar strength. They warn that US-centric AI financing concerns can flip these supports, creating a risk-off environment with lower US Treasury yields and a softer USD, highlighting the Dollar’s growing exposure to an AI investment slowdown.

Dow Jones futures rise by 0.19% to trade near 52,530 during European hours on Friday. S&P 500 futures gain 0.09% to trade around 7,800, while Nasdaq 100 futures inch higher by 0.03% to near 30,150.

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen notes that despite stronger-than-expected US inflation, retail sales and producer prices, the Dollar and EUR/USD have largely reverted to pre-data levels.

The US Dollar (USD) delivers a negative reaction after remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Fireside Chat with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

The US Dollar (USD) has come under strong and renewed downside pressure on Thursday, briefly revisiting the area of multi-day lows amid the equally marked decline in US Treasury yields across the board and a generalised cautious tone amid market participants.

An artificial intelligence (AI) stock rout has pushed money into Treasuries, and the Dollar Index gave back its gain on Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) print. It dropped from Wednesday's high just under 103.00, its highest in 18 months, to just under 101.90, its lowest since October 7.

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee notes that hotter-than-expected US CPI initially lifted the Dollar and US Treasury yields, but both moves faded as markets reassessed Fed tightening risks. He highlights the DXY Index’s failure to hold gains, reversing Fed hike probabilities, and growing concerns over growth, earnings and political uncertainty weighing on US equities and the broader USD rally.

RaboResearch Global Economics & Markets notes that US CPI and PPI data, alongside shifting Fed expectations, are driving US Dollar and US Treasury market dynamics. The report highlights hotter-than-expected core CPI, a temporary spike and retracement in US Treasury yields, and the potential for PPI to confirm CPI trends. Fed speakers, including Goolsbee, Barkin and Bowman, underscore ongoing concern over US inflation.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar has quickly surrendered gains made after the stronger US CPI report, with the Dollar Index retreating from a year-to-date high near 102.95 back towards 102.00. He links the move to an unwind of AI-related trades and risk-off conditions, but stresses that firm inflation data and Fed expectations still provide a supportive backdrop for the Dollar.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, attracts heavy selling on Thursday, extending the previous day's retracement slide from the 103.00 neighborhood, or a fresh high since April 2025.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that hotter US CPI has revived Federal Reserve tightening fears, but the US Dollar’s rally has been constrained by reversing Treasury yields and AI-led equity weakness.

Dow Jones futures rise by 0.46% to trade near 52,090 during European hours on Thursday. S&P 500 futures decline 0.33% to trade around 7,740, while Nasdaq 100 futures fall by 1.30% to near 29,780.

The US Dollar (USD) underperforms its major currency peers on Thursday as hot United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has failed to bring a meaningful impact on Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, surges over 0.69% as US inflation data trumps the Fed’s dovish rhetoric that no rate hikes are needed in 2027. The DXY is up 0.69% at 102.90

DBS Group Research economist Philip Wee highlights how upcoming US CPI data will challenge the US Dollar’s hawkish narrative. He notes New York Fed President John Williams supports another rate hike before end-2026 but questions further tightening in 2027.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that G10 FX volatility has eased after the recent spike driven by higher US yields, but warns risks remain skewed to renewed turbulence. He links Middle East tensions, potential US involvement, and energy prices to further upside in yields and Dollar strength.

The US Dollar (USD) claws back its early losses and ticks higher ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September releasing at 12:30 GMT.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note the US Dollar (USD) has rallied on higher US Treasury yields, energy prices and a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bias, but still lacks conditions for a decisive move beyond its recent range.

Dow Jones futures rise by 0.22% to trade near 52,050 during European hours on Wednesday. S&P 500 futures gain 0.10% to trade around 7,870, while Nasdaq 100 futures advance by 0.19% to near 30,850.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner expect US CPI to print slightly above consensus, reinforcing the Dollar’s support. They see scope for some Dollar re-strengthening as markets reassess October Federal Reserve hike odds, even if pricing may not exceed 50%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, drifts lower for the second straight day on Wednesday, retreating further from its highest level since April 2025, touched on the first day of this week.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 102.15 in the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY declines following remarks from New York Federal Reserve (Fed) President John Williams.

Goldman Sachs (GS) earned $17.01 a share in the third quarter against a forecast near $13.00. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) missed on profit and revenue but raised its 2026 forecast for net interest income, what it earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits.

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT, with headline inflation forecast to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, are forecast up 0.2% in the month against 0.6% overall.

Three banks agree the US Dollar (USD) is on solid footing for now, but none expects a decisive breakout or a sharp reversal soon. OCBC, Commerzbank and ING credit the Greenback's support to higher Oil prices, firm US yields and sticky Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening expectations.

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by higher Oil prices, firm US yields and resilient Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, but not yet breaking out of its recent range. They note markets are focused on energy, US inflation and earnings, with a decisive USD move likely requiring a meaningful upside surprise in core CPI. The base case is for a supported but range-bound USD.