Rabobank strategists Jane Foley and Molly Schwartz note that speculative US Dollar (USD) positioning has slipped into net short territory for the first time since early March, after safe-haven flows linked to the Iran war had previously supported the Dollar.

MUFG analysts note the US Dollar’s mixed performance as markets reassess Fed policy amid stronger inflation data and rising yields. They highlight the 2-year Treasury yield hitting new highs and see scope for further upside in US rates.

Brown Brothers Harriman's (BBH) Elias Haddad reiterates its constructive view on the Dollar Index (DXY), warning it may overshoot the upper end of its 96.00-100.00 range in the near term.

The US Dollar (USD) trades almost flat ahead of the United States (US) stock markets opening after an extended weekend during the late European trading session on Tuesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 99.00 after giving back its early gains.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes that optimism over a potential US–Iran peace deal initially pushed the Dollar lower alongside a sharp drop in Brent crude, but subsequent US strikes have revived uncertainty.

Dow Jones futures advance 0.53% above 50,900 during European hours ahead of the US regular opening on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rise 0.54% toward 7,550, and the Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.73% above 29,750.

Deutsche Bank strategists highlight that the S&P 500 has logged an eighth consecutive weekly gain, supported by falling Oil prices and easing stagflation fears. Futures are modestly higher after the long weekend, though slightly below pre-strike levels.

TD Securities strategists argue that, despite stronger United States (US) data and renewed "US exceptionalism" narratives, they are not ready to abandon their bearish US Dollar (USD) thesis for 2026.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, regains positive traction on Tuesday and reverses part of the previous day's slide to a one-week low.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is gaining ground after registering modest losses in the previous day and trading around 99.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

The US Dollar (USD) kickstarts the new trading week on the back foot as investors continue to assess news that a potential US-Iran deal could be clinched anytime soon.

Citing mediators, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday that progress toward finalizing an agreement to end the war between the United States (US) and Iran has slowed down on Monday, citing ongoing disaggreements over Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's demand of financial relief.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that the Dollar index (DXY) risks overshooting the top of its 96.00-100.00 range in the near term as resilient United States (US) growth outpaces peers.

Dow Jones futures advance 0.82% to near 50,100 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rise 0.93% above 7,550, and the Nasdaq 100 futures gain 1.38% above 29,950. Trading activity is expected to stay subdued as US regular markets will be closed due to the Memorial Day bank holiday.

The US Dollar (USD) gapped lower at the start of Monday’s session, retreating from the 99.30 area, the lower limit of last week’s trading range, to 99.00.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that higher US 2-year yields and elevated Brent prices are supporting broader USD strength, with markets now fully pricing one Fed rate hike by January 2027.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.05 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY loses momentum as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite. 

Scotiabank’s global FX strategy team highlights the Dollar is ending the week on the offensive, with modest gains against most G10 currencies as markets focus on US–Iran developments and the swearing-in of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that elevated US yields and increased expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening are supporting the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. The 2-year and 10-year yields remain high, and markets are pricing a higher probability of Fed action by year-end.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes the Dollar Index is consolidating as it tracks UST yields, with softer Oil and slightly lower yields capping USD upside. The bank highlights key resistance around 99.40 and 100.50/60 and support near 98.30/50 and 97.50/60.

Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid notes that improved sentiment around a potential Iran deal helped the S&P 500 recover earlier losses and close slightly higher.

Dow Jones futures advance 0.26% above 50,500 during European hours ahead of the United States (US) regular opening on Friday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 gain 0.28% toward 7,500, and the Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.34% to near 29,550.

The US Dollar (USD) trades marginally higher during the early European trading session on Friday, even as market participants remain confident that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.25 during the early Asian trading hours on Friday.

For most of Thursday the Dow Jones Industrial Average looked heavy, sliding to a session low near 49,700 as firmer Oil and a stubborn rise in yields did the work a static Federal Reserve (Fed) would not. Then the headline hit.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar is trading at stronger levels as higher US yields reflect growing expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes following the energy price shock. FOMC minutes signalled a gradual hawkish shift but did not fully endorse aggressive tightening.

OCBC’s FX Strategist Christopher Wong notes the Dollar Index eased as lower UST yields and softer Oil prices reduced safe-haven demand, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes adding no new hawkish impulse.

Rabobank’s Michael Every and Joe DeLaura see US Dollar policy increasingly tied to energy and geopolitics.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that U.S. long-term inflation expectations, measured via 5y5y swaps, are catching up with Europe’s as markets price prolonged disruption risks. He expects further convergence, with up to 10bp upside.

The US Dollar (USD) gives back a majority of its early gains as the United States (US) Treasury Yields correct sharply due to growing optimism that the United States (US) and Iran will reach a deal soon.