The US Dollar Index (DXY) spent the back half of this week doing something most desks had written off six months ago: rallying on the prospect of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike.

The week ahead will bring a fresh test for major currency pairs as investors digest the first Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh and look ahead to the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, global PMI releases, and central-bank commentary.

Nordea analysts expect the Dollar to stay supported in coming months as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish stance and US data remain firm. They argue that US growth and inflation dynamics justify higher yields versus peers, limiting Dollar downside.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that foreign investors sharply increased purchases of long-term US securities in April, with inflows over the past year more than offsetting the US trade deficit.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny notes the US Dollar has extended gains after a record hawkish shift in the Fed’s dot plot, even as Oil remains sharply lower over the past month.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of peers, has lost steam during Friday’s European session, with markets at half throttle amid the Juneteenth bank holiday in the US and investors pondering the soundness of the US-Iran peace deal.

Societe Generale’s Kenneth Broux highlights that the Dollar is in breakout territory after DXY moved above 101.00, supported by a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.

Wall Street's blue-chip index spent Thursday picking up the pieces of Wednesday's hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) selloff, and not even a roaring chip trade could coax it back into the green.

The US Dollar (USD) has pushed higher, with the Dollar Index (DXY) climbing back above 100.00 in the wake of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy update under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes notes that the Dollar Index is closely tracking EUR/USD and highlights how President Trump’s policies weakened the Dollar relative to what economic and monetary fundamentals implied.

Rabobank’s FX Strategy team notes the Dollar has recently been supported by both safe haven demand and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the Fed’s latest policy update has lifted US rates and supported the Dollar, with the Dollar Index back above 100.00 and markets now pricing multiple Fed hikes.

ING’s Chris Turner notes the Dollar is holding gains after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, with markets pricing about 44bp of tightening by Q2 2026.

Deutsche Bank’s Early Morning Reid team notes that Kevin Warsh’s hawkish debut as Fed Chair and a more aggressive dot plot pushed markets to fully price a Fed hike by October.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spent Wednesday morning printing another record, its third in a row, before running headlong into Kevin Warsh's first decision as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair.

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair held rates steady, exactly as expected, and then handed the Dollar one of its cleaner catalysts of the year.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair was anything but a placeholder.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong notes FX markets are in a holding pattern as traders await the FOMC, with Oil’s decline easing inflation pressures but seen as having limited further downside.

Societe Generale’s Kit Juckes relays Jan Groen’s view that the US economy shows resilient growth with sticky inflation, keeping the Fed on hold for now. He notes market pricing still leans toward a rate hike in early 2027.

ING strategists highlight that cyclical drivers have reasserted themselves in FX, underpinning a stronger Dollar over the coming months. They argue that these cyclical factors will keep the Dollar bid, delaying any meaningful downturn.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny highlights that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-FOMC press conference comes as Brent Oil has dropped sharply, easing near-term inflation risks but not eliminating them.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes Brent Oil is testing its 200-day moving average while the Dollar consolidates after giving back more than half of its post-May payrolls gains.

Dow Jones futures move little, hovering near 52,040 during the European hours on Wednesday, ahead of the US regular opening. However, S&P 500 futures rise 0.26% to near 7,540, and Nasdaq 100 futures advance 0.8%, trading near 30,240 at the time of writing.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, consolidates in a narrow band around mid-99.00s through the first half of the European session on Wednesday as traders opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes that the Dollar is firming ahead of the FOMC as iFlow data show it increasingly driven by rate expectations rather than safe-haven demand. Clients are net sellers of the Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, while some North Asian currencies still attract buyers.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The DXY extends the decline amid optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to a fresh all-time high near 52,100 on Tuesday, capping a two-day surge that is almost entirely about one thing: the apparent end of the war in Iran.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes the Dollar Index is trading defensively just below the top of its long-held 96.00–100.00 range, even as US assets benefit from optimism after the US-Iran peace agreement.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Chris Turner and Frantisek Taborsky note the Dollar is rallying again, supported by strong US data and Federal Reserve expectations despite sharply lower Oil prices.

The US Dollar (USD) trades firmly near Monday’s high ahead of the start of the two-day Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, whose decision will be announced on Wednesday.