The highest long-dated US yields in nearly two decades have moved the Dollar Index by three hundredths of a point. Spot holds just above 99.50 after a session range of 17 pips, still beneath a flat 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 99.75 that has capped every attempt for a fortnight.

A quarter-point Federal Reserve increase by December stopped being a certainty over the past eight days, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower for it. Spot trades near 53,400, down roughly 105 points on the session and about 2.5% beneath the record just short of 54,750 set on August 5.

Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses how rising global bond yields and mounting concerns over United States (US) fiscal discipline are challenging the traditional safe haven role of US Treasuries and the US Dollar (USD).

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights a mixed backdrop for the Dollar, with dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) repricing seen capping US Dollar (USD) rebounds even as foreign demand remains strong.

Dow Jones futures fall by 0.25%, trading around 53,410 during European hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures decline 0.52% to near 7,730, and Nasdaq 100 futures slip 0.92%, trading near 29,820.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, builds on the overnight goodish rebound from the 99.30 area, or the lowest level since June 5, and gains some follow-through traction on Tuesday.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that still-attractive US Dollar (USD) carry and softer United States (US) data, which have reduced the odds of a September Fed hike, should keep the Dollar rangebound.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up close to 260 points to beneath 53,500, roughly half a percent lower, on the day the 60-day negotiating window meant to end the war over the Strait of Hormuz expired with nothing agreed to replace it.

The Dollar Index trades near 99.50, roughly a tenth of a percent lower, having opened directly on its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and failed there inside the first minutes, with a session low just above 99.25 taking out the August range.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades near 53,550, down close to 200 points and roughly 1,200 beneath the record printed on August 5, on the day the 60-day negotiating window that was meant to end the war over the Strait of Hormuz lapses with nothing agreed to replace it.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes that the US Dollar (USD) has weakened against the Euro (EUR) as markets steadily scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening relative to other G10 central banks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extends losses for the third consecutive day on Monday, with bears testing levels at two-month lows below 99.40 during the European session.

Dow Jones futures decline by 0.12%, trading around 53,740 during European hours on Monday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures gain, hovering around 7,820, and Nasdaq 100 futures surge by 0.5%, trading near 30,290.

DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that the US Dollar (USD) is losing momentum as markets reassess United States (US)-Japan intervention, shifting Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, and rising US fiscal risks.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Lee Hardman note that weaker United States (US) data and lower short-term Treasury yields are undermining US Dollar (USD) support, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) holds above its 200-day moving average near 99.200.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 99.50 in the Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY loses momentum as data showed US Retail Sales unexpectedly declined in July. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its slide on Friday, holding below 100.00 at fresh lows after a fourth straight soft US data print.

The Dollar Index took a payroll contraction on August 7, a cooler consumer price reading on August 12 and a flat producer price reading on August 13 without surrendering its range. Friday's data finally did it.

Two cooling inflation readings carried the broad market to a record on Thursday, taking the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time, and Friday morning supplied the explanation for where the cooling came from.

MUFG analysts Lin Li, Michael Wan, Lloyd Chan and Khang Sek Lee note that upcoming US economic data will be crucial for the US Dollar outlook.

Nordea strategists argue that while near-term risks for the Dollar are broadly balanced, the longer-term outlook remains negative.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Fed rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

Danske Bank’s Danske Research Team notes that US July PPI came in slightly below expectations, with volatile trade and transport services dragging the headline lower while broader services stayed firm.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes the USD index (DXY) is trading near the lower end of its recent 99.50–100.00 range as cooling United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have cut implied odds of a September Fed rate hike.

ING strategists Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky and Chris Turner note that post-CPI summer conditions are suppressing FX volatility and keeping the Dollar broadly stable. They still see scope for a weaker Dollar as market expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening look overstated.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, continues to lose ground through the first half of the European session on Friday and retreats further from a two-week high, touched the previous day.

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note that softer United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) and lower US Treasury yields have led markets to scale back expectations of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike, limiting US Dollar (USD) upside.

MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar (USD) is trading on a softer footing as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations are scaled back following weaker labour data and a mixed United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) report.

Dow Jones futures remain subdued around 53,910 during European hours on Friday. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures move little, hovering around 7,820, and Nasdaq 100 futures inch lower by 0.09%, trading near 30,160.

Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur and Tatha Ghose highlight that despite a “low-hire, low-fire” US labor market, the Dollar remains supported. Initial jobless claims and unemployment stay very low, while wage growth shows only tentative signs of slowing.