The Aussie Dollar ended Friday’s session on a positive note, gaining 0.38% and 0.58% weekly as the US Dollar trimmed some of its weekly gains, while US data confirmed investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady in the October meeting. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6983.

Commerzbank’s FX team highlights that the People’s Bank of China rejected claims the yuan is undervalued, linking export strength to industrial competitiveness rather than currency manipulation.

USD/JPY trades with a positive bias on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board following a sharp decline in Japanese government bond yields.

Canada lost 68.3K jobs in September against a forecast for a 7K gain, and with August's 41.7K loss it has given back all of its net job gains for 2026.

The Pound Sterling holds firm against the US Dollar, which has so far posted modest gains against a basket of six currencies, while US consumers grew pessimistic about the economy as the US-Iran conflict dragged on for another week. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3231 at the time of writing.

EUR/USD reverses earlier gains on Friday and remains on track for a fifth consecutive weekly decline as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds from the previous day’s pullback. Concerns over France’s fiscal outlook also continue to weigh on sentiment toward the Euro (EUR).

NZD/USD trades around 0.5605 on Friday at the time of writing, posting a modest gain of 0.06% on the day, but more broadly continuing to consolidate near its recent lows.

Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur highlights Japanese investors' net selling of foreign bonds and its implications for global yields. Although Japanese investors have recently returned as buyers of French bonds, their selling of US bonds has provided some support to the euro against the dollar.

USD/CAD climbs on Friday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakens sharply following a disappointing domestic employment report. A firm US Dollar (USD) provides additional support to the pair. At the time of writing, USD/CAD trades around 1.4276, at levels last seen in April 2025.

GBP/JPY trades with a mild positive bias on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board. A pause in the global bond sell-off has pushed government bond yields lower, with Japanese yields falling more sharply than their UK counterparts.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that USD/JPY has been volatile around 157.86, with swings between 157.51 and 158.36 failing to establish a clear trend. For the coming sessions, the pair is expected to trade within 157.50–158.50 intraday, while the 1–3 week view favours consolidation in a narrower 157.00–158.70 band against a backdrop of longer-term downside momentum.

Brazil IPCA Inflation above forecasts (0.73%) in September: Actual (0.82%)

The Euro (EUR) is failing to capitalise on the moderate US Dollar (USD) weakness witnessed on Friday as the high Oil prices and the ongoing concerns about France’s public debt offset investors’ optimism about lower global yields.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers on Friday. In the European trade, the USD/JPY pair is up 0.3% to near 158.25.

Brown Brothers Harriman highlights that USD/CAD is consolidating just above 1.4200 after touching fresh cyclical highs near 1.4300. Canada’s September labor force survey is the key release, with modest job gains and a higher unemployment rate expected.

Francesco Pesole at ING observes that EUR/USD has moved back above 1.120 on Dollar softness, but the Euro still struggles against other European currencies as markets keep pricing a French fiscal premium. He argues that French political and bond-market risks may persist, and ING still sees scope for EUR/USD to test the 1.110/1.112 area in the near term.

Commerzbank’s Norman Liebke notes Banxico’s September minutes signal a board leaning toward further easing, though the policy rate stayed at 6.5%. He argues it is too early to see a clear November cut, given US elections, geopolitical risks and energy prices.

Rabobank strategists Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note that the recent USD/CAD rally reflects broad US Dollar (USD) strength rather than specific Canadian Dollar (CAD) weakness, with the pair consolidating near 1.425 after failing to break 1.43.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is up 0.3% at around 0.6980 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. However, the pair is struggling to extend gains beyond 0.6990.

The Euro (EUR) extends Thursday’s recovery move against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. In the European trade, the EUR/USD pair is up 0.2% higher to near 1.1235. The Euro rebounds as yields offered on France bonds have corrected sharply.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann observe that GBP/USD has held modest gains around 1.3230, but recent guidance from the Bank of England on higher-for-longer rates has not translated into a clear bullish trend.

The US Dollar (USD) extends losses for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday as some easing on the global bond rout has triggered a mild risk appetite, sending the US Dollar lower across the board.

Danske Bank strategist view the September European Central Bank (ECB) minutes as dovish relative to market pricing, arguing that they do not support the three additional rate hikes currently priced in.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny analyses September Ministry of Finance (MoF) securities data, noting strong foreign purchases of Japanese bonds after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike, suggesting improved JGB confidence.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) picks up against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as some easing in the global bonds’ rout has allowed for a modest recovery of risk appetite during the Asian session.

The GBP/JPY cross extends its recovery move from the weekly low, around the 208.20-208.15 region touched the previous day, and gains strong follow-through traction on Friday.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe AUD/USD as largely unchanged around 0.6960, with intraday price action confined to narrow ranges. The Australian Dollar is expected to trade between 0.6945 and 0.6985 near term, while the 1–3 week outlook remains neutral inside 0.6935–0.7020, even as longer-term bearish signals highlight downside risks toward prior lows.

The US Dollar (USD) ticks up against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Friday but remains trapped in a tight range, with downside attempts contained above the 157.50 area and the 200-day SMA at 158.54, which holds bulls for now.

The USD/CAD pair declines to around 1.4220 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as the gap between US and Canadian yields narrowed from the historically wide levels seen earlier in ‌the week.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 9: