Polymarket to open prediction markets for earnings reports

Polymarket added prediction markets for company earnings after getting the green light from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate in the United States.

According to a press release on Monday, the decentralized betting platform launched its earnings prediction tools in partnership with Stocktwits, a social platform popular with retail traders.

Over 10 million Stocktwits users can now see live probabilities on company earnings directly alongside investor discussions, streams, and ticker pages through the betting platform.

“Prediction markets turn big questions like earnings into simple, tradable outcomes with transparent pricing,” said Matthew Modabber, chief marketing officer at Polymarket. He added that embedding markets into Stocktwits puts prediction tools “directly into the hands of millions of investors where they already live and engage.”

Polymarket adds ‘beat quarterly estimate’ betting markets

The platform stated that it will include embedded outcome markets during earnings season, named “mention markets,” where traders can bet on certain terms appearing in corporate calls, and watchlists of upcoming results. 

“We are living in a post-real-time world where trust, community, and great signals matter more than speed,” Stocktwits founder and chief executive Howard Lindzon said. “Together, we can help investors cut through noise and focus on the probabilities that matter most.”

The service will be available to select US users today and access is expected to be available to all throughout earnings season. Active listings include crypto exchange Bullish surpassing analysts’ earnings-per-share estimates when it reports second-quarter results on September 17. Traders currently see a 56% chance that Bullish will beat the expectations.

Investors have also placed a 72% chance that shipping company FedEx will beat its quarterly non-GAAP EPS, priced at $3.62, to be released this coming Thursday.

Corporate earnings are a new frontier for Polymarket, but macroeconomic events are still the platform’s most active markets. The “Fed decision in September?” contract has counted $139 million in volume, with a 91% prediction that the US central bank will cut rates by 25 basis points.

Polymarket can operate in the US

Shayne Coplan may have founded Polymarket in 2020, but activity on the platform picked up during the 2024 US presidential election when it correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory at odds that differed from mainstream polls. 

The platform has since expanded to bets on sports outcomes, celebrity relationships, and global events including Federal Reserve policy meetings, and pop culture headlines like the rumored engagement of NFL star Travis Kelce and singer Taylor Swift.

But despite its reputation, Polymarket was not allowed to operate legally in the United States until this month. Coplan announced on X that regulators had given the company “the green light to go live in the USA.”

As reported by Cryptopolitan last week, people familiar with the talks said Polymarket’s valuation is likely to at least triple the $1 billion it reached in a funding round that closed this summer. At least one investor has offered a term sheet valuing the company at as much as $10 billion, the sources surmised. 

The US President’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August after his company, 1789 Capital, invested in the platform.

“Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world, and the US needs access to this important platform,” Trump Jr. said in a statement.

The company’s political connections to the Trump family will certainly come into question, having been one of the few markets that favoured Trump’s 2024 victory and its ties to conservative-linked venture funding. 

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