AST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Space-Based Venture's Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Investing in the final frontier offers massive potential for growth but requires careful navigation of complex technology. Here is how AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) and Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) compare today.

AST SpaceMobile is building a global cellular network to connect smartphones directly via satellite, while Firefly Aerospace provides launch and orbital services for government and commercial missions. Both companies are scaling rapidly in a high-stakes environment, making them key candidates for investors looking to gain exposure to the modern space economy.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard smartphones without the need for special hardware. The company aims to disrupt the communication stocks landscape by providing seamless global coverage through revenue-sharing models with existing providers. It maintains partnerships with more than 50 mobile network operators, including AT&T Corp. (NYSE:T), Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), and Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD).

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $71 million, representing a significant increase of approximately 1,500% over the previous year. Despite this growth, the company reported a net loss of close to $342 million for the same period. This resulted in a net margin of negative 482%.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is roughly 1.2x, which represents total debt relative to shareholder equity. The so-called current ratio, which measures the ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets, is approximately 16.4x. Free cash flow for the period was roughly negative $1.1 billion, which is calculated as cash from operations minus capital expenditures.

The case for Firefly Aerospace

Firefly Aerospace serves as an end-to-end space and defense technology company that helps customers launch, land, and operate in orbit. Its customer base includes high-profile organizations such as NASA, the U.S. Space Force, Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT), and Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC). The company currently reports a backlog of approximately $1.4 billion, supported by multi-launch agreements and milestone-based billing.

In FY 2025, revenue for Firefly Aerospace reached nearly $160 million, a growth of approximately 160% compared to the prior year. The company reported a net loss of about $298.3 million for the period. This indicates a net margin of negative 187%.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.3x, which compares total debt to shareholder equity. Its current ratio stands at roughly 4.5x, indicating the company's liquidity position relative to its upcoming obligations. Free cash flow for the fiscal period was nearly negative $238 million, representing cash from operations minus capital expenditures.

Risk profile comparison

AST SpaceMobile faces significant risks as its SpaceMobile Service has not yet generated revenue, which could impact its ability to continue as a going concern. The company faces intense competition from established entities like Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) that have recently acquired competing spectrum. Furthermore, it is managing multiple class action securities lawsuits and remains dependent on successful regulatory approvals for its upcoming satellite launches.

Firefly Aerospace is susceptible to geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions that could impact the availability of essential materials. Its growth is heavily reliant on sustained government spending, meaning any U.S. government shutdown could delay funding or critical programs. The company also deals with class action securities litigation, and its financial results remain sensitive to the timing and success of its lunar missions.

Valuation comparison

Firefly Aerospace currently carries a significantly lower valuation on an earnings basis compared to AST SpaceMobile, which trades at a steep premium.

The Forward P/E ratio compares the current stock price to future earnings estimates over the next year. The P/S ratio measures a company's market price relative to its sales over the past twelve months.

Valuation metrics include sourcing from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

Firefly went public in an initial public offering a year ago at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.

More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to achieve a successful lunar landing, doing so in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's goal of constructing a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the SpaceX IPO has been bringing to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.

While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.

AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play, providing full mobile phone compatibility with major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, Rakuten, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), and Telus (NYSE:TU).

By the end of 2026, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.

Both businesses are exciting space infrastructure plays. Firefly right now looks to be the better buy because its forward P/E and P/S ratios are in line with stocks that have growing businesses, but without the growth-stock valuation risk.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, American Tower, Firefly Aerospace, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.