Today’s Market Recap: 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2002，U.S. Stocks Fall as Brent Barely Holds $100

Tracking the Market Trend

TradingKey - On October 7, U.S. Eastern Time, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to an intraday high of 5.36%, its highest level since 2002, while all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower.

The Nasdaq ended a five-session winning streak and retreated from its record high alongside the S&P 500. The Dow fell more than 1% at one point. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and KBW Nasdaq Bank Index both lost more than 1%. Meta (META) fell 2.38%, while CrowdStrike (CRWD) dropped 4.83%.

The U.S. Dollar Index advanced toward an 18-month high, while the euro approached a 17-month low. Bitcoin briefly fell below $83,000, retreating more than 3% from its intraday high.

Oil prices reversed earlier gains after the G7 coordinated the release of emergency petroleum reserves and the International Energy Agency supported faster inventory deployment. Brent crude rose about 2% intraday before closing 0.4% lower at $100.20 per barrel. WTI crude fell 1.3% to $88.28 per barrel, its lowest closing level in more than a month.

A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields weighed on precious metals. Gold fell to a two-month low and dropped more than 2% from its intraday high. COMEX copper edged lower, ending its previous winning streak.

Market Headline

All Federal Reserve participants supported the September rate increase, while most believed another hike could be appropriate by year-end. The minutes showed that many officials viewed the increase as a risk-management measure against persistently elevated inflation. Others believed that the economic outlook itself already justified further policy tightening. Most participants said another rate increase could be appropriate before year-end, but stressed that future decisions would depend on incoming data and showed no urgency to raise rates at consecutive meetings. Officials generally agreed that inflation remained elevated and the labor market was near full employment. Some noted that AI investment could boost productivity but might also increase demand and inflation before supply capacity improves. The minutes also confirmed that during the joint U.S.-Japan foreign-exchange intervention in July, the New York Fed acted solely as an agent for the U.S. Treasury and did not use Federal Reserve funds.

Demand at the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction was strong, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching its highest level since 2014. The Treasury sold $39 billion of 10-year notes at a high yield of 5.300%, the highest since 2000 but below the pre-auction market yield. The bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.77. Indirect bidders received 80.3% of the offering, while direct and indirect bidders together took about 97.5%. Primary dealers were allocated only around 2.5%. The strong demand briefly pushed the 10-year yield lower after the auction. The upcoming 30-year bond sale will provide another test of investor demand for long-term Treasuries.

Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5, cutting the average cost per task by about 75% from the previous generation. Haiku 5.5 targets high-throughput and cost-sensitive applications, with improvements in coding, computer use and tool calling. It is also the first Haiku model to support adjustable reasoning effort. For prompts of up to 100,000 tokens, API prices are 90% lower than Haiku 4.5; for prompts above that threshold, prices are 50% lower. The model can also serve as a subagent for Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5, handling frequent, lower-cost tasks. Anthropic also reduced the cache-read price for Sonnet 5.5 to $0.10 per million tokens.

OpenAI is rolling out GPT-6 to ChatGPT users worldwide and introducing an interactive Intelligent UI. GPT-6 Sol became available to Plus, Pro, Business and Enterprise users on October 7, while GPT-6 Luna began rolling out to Free and Go users on October 8. The rollout covers a platform with more than 1.2 billion weekly active users. Both models are classified as having “high capability” in cybersecurity and biological and chemical domains. They also show stronger resistance to jailbreak attacks than GPT-5.6, although they do not outperform the previous generation across every safety evaluation. The new Intelligent UI can generate interactive responses containing images, buttons, forms, charts and tools.

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