WTI holds gains above $92.00 on persistent Middle East supply risks

• WTI price holds gains near $92.05 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.

• Widening Middle East conflicts threatened to hamper a recovery in supply from the region.

• Prospects of more Russian energy hitting markets after a deal with the US have risen.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $92.05 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. WTI price edges higher after a deadly attack on Saudi Arabia’s airport in Riyadh. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding prospects for increased Russian diesel supplies and a potential Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire.

The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said on Monday that it was dealing with another round of drone and missile attacks directed at Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Yemen's Armed Forces warned airlines, employees, and passengers that no Saudi airspace or airports are safe except Mecca and Medina, and urged against travel, according to Fars News.

Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s main airport over the weekend killed at least 16 people, including a US citizen, and wounded about 300. Rising tensions in the Middle East could boost the WTI price in the near term.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an energy ceasefire and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. On Monday, US special envoy Jared Kushner said that a deal to allow Russian diesel exports is part of a bid to draw Russia back to negotiations after the failure of previous efforts to launch sustained talks to end the war, per Reuters.

Expectations of more Russian supplies could weigh on the WTI price. Trump said Friday that Moscow will supply more than 4 million tons of diesel to the global market under a deal he struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a phone call.

“It's been a dizzying few days of headlines,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group, pointing to issues including Trump’s claims of an “energy ceasefire” as well as the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. “We are off to a messy start this week.”

Traders await the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude oil stockpiles report later on Tuesday. A larger-than-expected crude oil inventory draw indicates stronger demand and could lift the WTI price, while a bigger build than estimated signals weaker demand or excess supply, which might undermine the WTI price.

Oil volatility fades but bond market stress persists, says HSBC

Strategists at HSBC argue that “one of the major factors behind 2026’s bond market shock has been the surge in oil prices caused by the Iran conflict.” They point to “this year’s overlapping movements between implied measures of bond and oil market volatility as measured by the MOVE and oil VIX indices, respectively” as evidence of how closely the two markets initially traded together. However, HSBC highlights “the recent disconnection between these volatility measures”: bond markets “have continued to sell off and remain choppy even though oil prices have settled.” The bank suggests “the initial leg higher in yields has created its own problems,” adding that “with hyperscaler debt issuance likely to remain massive, investors shouldn’t expect falling oil prices to be a silver bullet.”

Technical Analysis: WTI maintains a constructive outlook above the 100-day SMA

In the daily chart, the near-term tone of WTI US Oil is constructive as price holds above the Bollinger Bands simple moving average (SMA) middle band, keeping the recent advance broadly supported while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 stays in neutral territory after cooling from overbought readings seen in late September. However, the move is still capped within the volatility envelope, with the Bollinger upper band marking the next bullish objective and the longer-term 100-day simple moving average (SMA) reinforcing the broader uptrend backdrop despite the latest consolidation.

On the downside, immediate support aligns with the Bollinger SMA middle band at $91.60, ahead of deeper demand at the lower Bollinger band around $86.50, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on a more pronounced pullback. On the topside, a sustained break above the Bollinger upper band at $96.70 would reopen the path for a retest of the recent highs, while the price action holding above the mid-band suggests dips are likely to remain shallow as long as $91.60 continues to underpin the market.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)