SpaceX Still Trades Above Its IPO Price. Could Anthropic Do the Same?

According to a recent Bloomberg article, artificial intelligence start-up Anthropic is aiming to conduct its initial public offering (IPO) the week of Nov. 9. But even if it doesn't go public before Thanksgiving, the IPO is expected to occur before the end of 2026.

As Anthropic's stock market debut gets closer to being a reality, there will be a lot more details to dig through for investors considering buying shares. But if you'd like to get a sense of how the stock price may perform in its early days and weeks, one thing we can do currently is look at how another highly publicized IPO has traded so far: Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX).

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How the SpaceX IPO is playing out

There are two distinct price points to consider for SpaceX's IPO. One is the IPO price of $135 per share, which is what institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals, and a smattering of lucky retail investors paid to buy shares directly from the company just before they started trading. For most retail investors, however, shares were first available to buy at $150, but as trading got underway, many would-be buyers were unable to fill their orders.

Those distinctions are worth noting, as what's typically shared by news outlets is the first-day return on a stock from its IPO price, not from where shares opened to the average investor.

With that in mind, after SpaceX debuted to the public at $150 on June 12, shares closed the day at $160.95. From there, the stock price climbed to an intraday high of $225.64 on June 16, then closed at $211.39.

After that, however, it dipped and kept falling. On Aug. 3, SpaceX's stock traded as low as $104.83. During its turbulent journey, the stock price repeatedly moved back and forth across the $150 line. After a surge this week, it closed Tuesday at $171.92 -- higher than it has closed since June. That means not only is the SpaceX stock price trading above its IPO pricing of $135, but it's also trading above where it opened to the public at $150.

Following in the footsteps of the SpaceX stock price?

There's no way of knowing at this point what share price Anthropic has planned for its IPO, nor at what level it will open trading to the public. But if it follows in the footsteps of SpaceX, it would rise for a few days before trending downward as the initial enthusiasm wanes and the early rush to buy in fades. The stock could just as easily stumble right out of the gate and quickly fall below its IPO price or rally for a few days, weeks, or longer. That's not to sound indecisive; it's just the reality of investing in a newly public company. Early pops are common. So are "broken IPOs" that fairly quickly sink below their offering price. There's no guarantee Anthropic will prove a profitable investment.

What we can take away at this point is that even if Anthropic can meaningfully reward investors who buy in after it goes public, the path to those rewards is likely to have many ups and downs. Rather than hoping to strike it rich on the day Anthropic goes public, a better plan would be to exercise patience and buy shares on pullbacks with a plan to hold them over the long term, despite the volatility.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.