SpaceX vs Amazon: Which Is the Better Stock to Own Over the Next 10 Years

Two of the most popular stocks in the market right now are the recently public SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). The companies have some interesting similarities as well as some striking differences.

Let's look at which artificial intelligence (AI) stock looks like the better long-term buy.

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Space ambitions

SpaceX and Amazon view space not only as the next frontier, but as big revenue opportunities. The companies have competing satellite internet services, and both Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos have talked about the benefits of data centers in space.

When it comes to space, the clear edge goes to SpaceX, and its current vertical integration is a big advantage. SpaceX's Starlink is the much more established satellite internet service, with a much larger constellation, at over 11,000 operational satellites versus roughly 400 for Amazon. This is, in part, because its rocket launch business lets the company quickly launch new satellites into space. Amazon, meanwhile, has struggled to secure launch times, often having to rely on SpaceX. It also has deals with Bezos's Blue Origin and others, such as the European rocket company Arianespace, although neither has the scale of SpaceX.

Amazon still plans to start to offer commercial service by year-end, and it recently signed a deal with AT&T to let the wireless provider offer Amazon LEO broadband to business customers. It also acquired important spectrum and an important relationship with Apple when it agreed to buy Globalstar earlier this year, allowing it to offer direct-to-direct services. Still, it is playing catch-up in this area and remains far behind.

When it comes to data centers in space, this race is still wide open, as it will likely take years for this to become a reality. However, SpaceX is also far ahead in this area, while Amazon has said it's impractical, despite its founder's more ambitious outlook. It is teaming with Nvidia to develop chips that can withstand cosmic radiation, and it is also developing ammonia-based liquid cooling for its orbital data centers. It's also working on recapturing and reusing both stages of its Starship rocket. If it can do this successfully, it would significantly alter the economics of space and put the company in a commanding position moving forward.

Terrestrial data centers

In addition to their space ambitions, SpaceX and Amazon are also two of the largest infrastructure-as-a-service companies in the world. Amazon created this whole business model roughly two decades ago and remains the market share leader. SpaceX, meanwhile, has been seeing rapid growth in this area as compute capacity remains constrained.

In the near term, SpaceX is seeing the superior economics, as it is acting largely as a bridge provider offering short-term rentals. As such, it said it is seeing payback periods of less than a year. Amazon, meanwhile, is signing up AI customers for contracts of five or more years, while saying it is seeing a payback period of two to three years.

That said, I think Amazon has the more durable and sustainable cloud business. SpaceX's return profile likely isn't durable, as it is taking advantage of the current huge demand for compute power. Amazon, on the other hand, is signing long-term contracts and working to establish long-term compute and service relationships. Amazon has also developed its own custom chips, and the more of its cloud business it can shift to these chips over time, the better its economics should become. SpaceX, meanwhile, has decided to exclusively use Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs).

The verdict

Despite both companies having market caps over $2 trillion and being in some similar areas, the investment profiles of both stocks are quite different. Amazon generated $200 billion in revenue last quarter, led by its e-commerce business, while SpaceX produced just $7.8 billion in Q2 2026 revenue. However, SpaceX's growth is set to skyrocket, with it projecting $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by year-end. This, however, will come with some very heavy capex spending, and when the company turns profitable and generates free cash flow could be a ways off.

If you want to invest in a great compounding business, which is my preference, Amazon is your best choice to buy and hold for the next decade. On the other hand, if you want a company at the forefront of some potentially game-changing technologies, SpaceX is an exciting, albeit much riskier, option.

Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.