Buffett has consistently warned through the years about the dangers of gambling rather than investing.
Several data points indicate that investors have gambling fever in 2026.
Buffett's farewell letter provided a solution to the problem he has warned about.
Gen. Douglas MacArthur stated in his 1951 farewell address to the U.S. Congress, "Old soldiers never die, they just fade away." That quote came to mind with a recent farewell of sorts. Warren Buffett released a letter to Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKA) (NYSE:BRKB) shareholders last week, informing them that he is stepping down as the company's chairman.
This marked the second stage of Buffett's fading away from Berkshire. The legendary investor passed the baton as the conglomerate's CEO to Greg Abel at the beginning of 2026.
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Buffett's departure comes after more than 60 years leading Berkshire Hathaway. But as he steps back from the spotlight, what's arguably his biggest warning for investors has never been more timely.
Warren Buffett. Image source: Getty Images.
In his 1983 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett warned about "casino-type markets." This became a recurring message for the multibillionaire through the years.
He said in a CNBC interview in 2018, "A lot of people like to gamble in the stock market. It is insane. To risk starting all over again and losing everything is madness."
During Berkshire's 2022 annual shareholder meeting, Buffett raised the issue again. He sternly criticized Wall Street for turning the stock market into a "gambling parlor." His longtime business partner, Charlie Munger, was in full agreement, stating, "Why would you want your country's stock to trade on a casino?"
Buffett revisited the problem in his 2023 letter to Berkshire shareholders, writing, "For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young." He added, "The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants."
Don't think for a second that Buffett has changed his mind. In an interview with CNBC's Becky Quick in May 2026 during Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, he said, "I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached. And people can move between the church and casino. And I would say there are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive to people."
In July, Quick interviewed Buffett again. And he again lamented, "It's tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling."
Is Buffett right? Do investors have gambling fever today? Let's look at some numbers.
0DTE (zero day to expiration) option volume in July 2026 soared to an all-time high of 66.2% of total S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) options volume. Buffett told Quick in May, "If you're buying one-day options, or selling them, I mean that is – that's not investing, it's not speculating, it's gambling."
Leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently made up roughly 40% of all U.S. ETF trading volume, according to IEX data. However, leveraged ETFs represent only around 1% of total assets. Margin debt (funds that investors have borrowed from their brokers) reached $1.45 trillion in August 2026, up more than 37% year over year, and was even higher in June.
Meanwhile, market valuations are at frothy levels, as measured by two key benchmarks. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE (cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio is near its highest point since early 2000 -- right before the dot-com bubble burst. The total market capitalization-to-GDP ratio, known as the Buffett indicator, now tops 237%. Buffett stated in 2001 that when this ratio approaches 200%, investors are "playing with fire."
There's a simple way to heed Buffett's warning and avoid gambling. The 96-year-old investing icon alluded to it in his farewell letter.
Buffett wrote, "From the beginning, Charlie and I looked for owners who thought in decades rather than quarters, and we were fortunate to find a great many of you." Two points in this statement underscore the key differences between investing and gambling.
First, Buffett used the word "owners" to describe Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Buying stock with the mindset of being a partial owner of the business will reduce the chances that you're gambling rather than investing.
Second, he mentioned thinking "in decades." This long-term perspective is the exact opposite of buying 0DTE options that expire on the day you purchase them.
Buffett poignantly noted, "Father Time always wins." He was referring to the effects of aging. Still, he also indirectly pointed out an important truth in investing popularized by billionaire Ken Fisher: "Time in the market beats timing the market."
The stock market doesn't have to be a casino. It has never been one for Warren Buffett.
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Keith Speights has positions in Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.