US dollar clings to nine-week lows near 98.4 as Brent nears $100 and the yen hits a seven-month high — five events to watch today
The US dollar is pinned near nine-week lows around 98.4, still unable to build on last week's blockbuster payrolls report as a fresh oil shock and a surging yen crowd the driver's seat. Here are five key events to watch for the greenback today:
1. Brent flirts with $100, redrawing the dollar's playbook
US-Iran fighting and reports of attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure sent Brent crude to a session high of $99.46 on Tuesday before it settled at $97.92, with WTI holding above $94. Goldman Sachs warns Brent could exceed $120 if the Strait of Hormuz disruption is prolonged. The oil spike keeps inflation risk — and Fed-hike pricing — alive: the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.80%, its highest since autumn 2023, a rare yield prop for a sagging dollar.
2. DXY near 98.8: the nine-week low that payrolls couldn't lift
The Dollar Index set a fresh nine-week low on Wednesday, dipping to 98.33 intraday and last near 98.38, down roughly 3% since its late-July highs. Even after August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000 and pushed CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp hike at the September 15-16 FOMC to about 58.4% ~ 60%, the dollar slipped in thin, post-Labour-Day liquidity. Traders are refusing to chase the greenback into Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI — the last inflation prints before the meeting.
3. The yen, the dollar's weakest leg, sits at a seven-month high
USD/JPY slid to 154.05 on Tuesday — and was last around 153.2 on Wednesday — down about 1.1% this week, its weakest level since February, as Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations for its September 17-18 meeting and carry-trade unwinding kept the yen bid. Dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller last week added to the dollar's downside, and with the pair now below July's post-intervention flash level near 155.2, markets remain on intervention watch.
4. China's reflation data lands this morning
China reported August CPI of 0.8% year on year (up from 0.5%) and PPI of 3.8% (versus 3.7% expected), released at 09:30 Beijing time. Factory-gate reflation on top of $100 oil feeds the global reflation trade that is keeping major central banks hawkish. Meanwhile, the PBOC bought 20.2 tonnes of gold in August — its largest monthly purchase since 2023 — a reminder that reserve diversification away from the dollar continues, even as commodity FX such as the Aussie finds support.
5. The inflation gauntlet: PPI on Thursday, CPI on Friday
Both reports arrive at 08:30 ET — the final inflation inputs before the September 15-16 FOMC decision. A hot PPI or CPI would validate the hike trade and give the dollar a chance to reclaim the 99.0 handle; a soft print would revive the "Waller pause" case and risk a break toward 98.3 ~ 98.5. Until then, expect the greenback to stay range-bound and data-driven.
* Chart source: official TradingView chart screenshot, Capital.com data feed, as of 9 September 2026, 5:00 pm AEST.
Related reads: for how the greenback's softness is driving the Aussie, see AUD/USD climbs for a fourth day to 0.7218; for the yen's surge and its carry-trade fallout, see Yen hits a seven-month high on BOJ September-hike bets.
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* The content presented above, whether from a third party or not, is considered as general advice only. This article should not be construed as containing investment advice, investment recommendations, an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments.
