Cardano Price Forecast: ADA rally strengthens bullish breakout setup

• Cardano is up nearly 3% on Monday, extending the 6% gains from the previous day.
• Derivatives data shows a 15% rise in Open Interest with a positive funding rate, suggesting a bullish positional buildup.
• The technical outlook for ADA suggests an upside bias as the price tests a bullish breakout above a key resistance level.

Cardano (ADA) price extends a steady recovery on Monday, trading above $0.2600 after a 6% rise the previous day. The altcoin sees strong retail demand, with ADA futures Open Interest up 15% in 24 hours and the funding rate remaining positive. Cardano must confirm the breakout of a key resistance level near $0.2632, which could further extend the rally toward $0.3000.

Retail speculation backs ADA rally

Cardano is gaining strength in the retail space as speculative demand in ADA futures rises on the prospect of further upside. CoinGlass data shows ADA Open Interest (OI) is up 15% over the last 24 hours, reaching $614.98 million, indicating a higher notional value of active perpetual contracts. Typically, a rise in spot price results in an OI surge or a fresh positional buildup. Liquidation data shows $2.02 million wiped out in ADA futures during the same period, led by $1.89 million in short liquidations, suggesting buy-side dominance and corroborating a rise in active positions.

The funding rate stands at 0.0101%, up from 0.0100% the previous day, suggesting that traders are willing to pay a premium to hold long positions. This reaffirms the buy-side dominance among traders.

Technical outlook: Cardano eyes $0.30 as rally gains momentum

Cardano trades around $0.2690 at press time on Monday, maintaining a steady recovery for over the last three months. The ADA price advances well above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $0.2472, with the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $0.2244 and $0.2146, underpinning a constructive bullish backdrop.

From a technical perspective, Cardano tests the bullish breakout of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, measured from $0.3136 to $0.1385, at $0.2632. A confirmed breakout above this level could surpass the $0.3000 threshold and target the $0.3136 swing high. Beyond that, the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level at $0.3916 could serve as the next bullish target.

Momentum on the daily chart remains largely constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 69 hinting at stretched but still strong upside momentum, reinforced by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line holding well above the zero line.

On the downside, immediate support is clustered at the 200-day EMA at $0.2472, followed by the March 29 low at $0.2328. Deeper pullbacks would target the 50- and 100-day EMAs at $0.2244 and $0.2146, with the 50% retracement at $0.2260 providing support.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)