Silver price forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $61.40 as US yields retreat, NFP eyed

• Silver price gains to near $61.40 as US Treasury Yields retreat from its multi-decade high.

• Fed’s Logan sees at least half-of-a-percent interest rate hike in the near term.

• Investors keenly await the US NFP data for September.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 0.55% to near $61.38 during the late Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal edges up as rally in United States (US) Treasury Yields has hit a pause.

10-Year US Treasury Yields have corrected to near 5.25% from its recent highs of 5.34%, the highest level seen since May 2002.

A slight correction in US Treasury yields has improved very-short term appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver. However, the broader trend of US bond yields remains firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have signaled more interest rate hikes even after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4.00% in September.

Fed’s Logan delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 8.1/10 historical average, underscoring a stronger tightening bias relative to the established baseline. The emphasis that higher yields may reflect increased term premiums, potentially reducing the need for additional tightening, sits in tension with explicit calls for at least 50 bps more in rate hikes and several further moves to ensure inflation returns to 2%, reinforcing a narrative of a still-not-restrictive stance and a strengthening economic expansion that is supportive for the Dollar. Overall, the tone signals a clear willingness to push policy rates higher until price stability is credibly restored.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.68 points to 136.59, confirming a solid move deeper into hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 threshold. This combination of a higher index level and an elevated FXS Speechtracker score points to rising market expectations for further Fed tightening, a backdrop typically constructive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies.

On the economic data front, investors keenly await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to Bloomberg consensus, nonfarm payrolls to rise by 90,000 in September, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD holds decisively below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.48, keeping the near-term tone bearish as price remains capped by this short-term trend indicator. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.64 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than oversold exhaustion.

On the topside, immediate resistance is August 19 low at $62.19, followed by the 20-day EMA at $63.48. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 is the key suppory level; below that, the asset could decline towards the August 3 low at $56.57.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)