WTI drops to near $89.00 as OPEC+ holds November targets
- WTI falls after OPEC+ decided to keep November production targets unchanged as expected.
- Middle East exports disrupted by regional conflicts, including Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels from emergency reserves to ease global supply pressures.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $89.30 during Asian hours on Monday. Crude oil prices experienced a decline following an agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) to maintain steady production targets for November. The decision aligned with widespread market expectations that further adjustments to output policy would be deferred until next year.
Key producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman, continue to pump well below their designated quotas, with overall exports running at just 60% to 80% of normal volumes due to ongoing export disruptions linked to the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
Geopolitical instability in the region escalated as Saudi-backed forces in Yemen launched a major military offensive to reclaim territory from Houthi forces. The action followed weeks of heightened tensions, during which the Iran-backed group captured the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait. This key maritime passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden had been serving as a critical alternative bypass for Saudi oil shipments looking to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
In response to global supply pressures, G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves, pledging to avoid energy export restrictions following pressure from US President Donald Trump. Despite the ongoing conflict, regional crude exports briefly spiked above pre-war levels in late September, reaching peak flows of up to 22.5 million barrels per day according to data from Kpler. This compares to a pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day recorded between March 2025 and February.
Brent eases as supply fears fade, but Middle East risks linger
Analysts at Rabobank note that Brent crude prices have “retreated last week as improved Hormuz flows and the partial restoration of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline eased supply concerns,” highlighting a tentative normalization in physical market conditions. However, they caution that “the deployment of another aircraft carrier to the Middle East threatens to disrupt the recent recovery,” underscoring that geopolitical risk remains a key potential brake on the recent pullback in prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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