Ethereum Edges Toward Long-Term Holders’ Cost Basis, Now Only 8% Above Key Accumulation Level

• After weeks of grinding losses, Ethereum is trading near $3,150 and sitting roughly 8% above the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price at $2,895.

• On-chain data from CryptoQuant show long-term holders have added about 17 million ETH to accumulation wallets in 2025, even as macro stress and policy uncertainty flared.

• ETH is holding above structural support around $3,000 and the 200-week moving average, but a deeper test toward $2,800–$2,900 cannot be ruled out if sentiment sours again.

Ethereum holders have had little in the way of comfort lately. After several weeks of steady selling, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading near $3,150, with rallies fading quickly as broader crypto sentiment remains fragile. Under the surface, though, on-chain data suggest the market is edging back toward an area that long-term participants have treated as a bargain zone in previous cycles.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, ETH now sits just 8% above the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price at $2,895. That metric tracks the average cost basis of wallets that have been steadily stacking ETH over multiple market cycles, rather than trading in and out on short-term moves. When price drifts down toward that cost floor, it has often coincided with periods when patient capital starts to lean back in.

Of course, no single line in the sand guarantees a bottom. But the fact that spot price is sliding closer to a level tied to long-term cost basis does change the conversation: from “how far can forced sellers push it” to “at what point do value-driven buyers get interested again?”

Long-Term Holders Stay Unshaken

CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci points to $2,895 as the average cost basis for Ethereum’s core accumulation cohort — the investors who have been “patiently stacking” through several market cycles and tend to step in when fear is loudest. Rather than trying to time every swing, this group has historically added exposure into weakness and then sat through the noise.

On the data we have, Ethereum has only slipped decisively below that cost basis once: during the April 2025 Trump tax-tariff crisis, when uncertainty spilled across asset classes. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (GEPUCURRENT) jumped to 629 points at the time, roughly 50% above its COVID-era peak, underscoring how extreme that episode was. Even then, long-term holders did not fold — they accelerated accumulation instead of selling into the panic.

The flow numbers for 2025 underline that conviction. Around 17 million ETH moved into accumulation addresses over the year, lifting balances in those wallets from about 10 million to more than 27 million ETH. For a group that typically buys when headlines are at their worst, that kind of size sends a clear signal: they have so far chosen to treat macro scares as entry opportunities.

If ETH were to fall another 8% from current levels, price would again converge on that $2,895 cost basis. In past cycles, that zone has behaved like a thick demand band rather than a precise turning point — the market has probed below it briefly, but not stayed there for long. Kesmeci argues that even a dip under $2,900 is unlikely to be long-lived if the same pattern holds.

At the same time, it’s worth acknowledging the limitation: this entire story is built on one lens — CryptoQuant’s view of accumulation addresses. It does not capture every type of holder, every derivative positioning, or every macro shock that might still push ETH deeper before any durable recovery can take hold.

Ethereum Tests Key Support as Confidence Wavers

The technical picture roughly rhymes with the on-chain signals but doesn’t remove the risk. On the weekly chart, Ethereum is still holding above a structural support band around $3,000 after several weeks of pressure. Price briefly slipped under that mark last week and then snapped back, hinting at dip-buying interest near the 200-week moving average — a line that has helped define major cycle lows in the past.

As of now, ETH is trading around $3,190 and trying to carve out a floor in this range. Above, the 50-week moving average near $3,500 is the first real test for any sustained bounce. A clean break and weekly close back over that level would be an early sign that the current pullback is turning into consolidation rather than the start of a deeper slide.

If, instead, the $3,000 area gives way again and sellers are not met with the same level of demand, the door opens to a fuller retest of the $2,800–$2,900 region. That zone lines up closely with the Accumulation Addresses Realized Price identified by CryptoQuant, which is part of why long-term holders and institutional accumulators are watching it so closely.

The recent move has echoes of the April 2025 reset, when Ethereum pushed into long-term support, sentiment felt washed-out and then the market reversed sharply higher. But history is a guide, not a blueprint. If macro conditions deteriorate or crypto-specific shocks emerge, ETH could undercut familiar levels before any lasting recovery takes shape — even if the $2,895 cost basis once again acts as a magnet for long-horizon buyers.