Silver breaks $64 as precious metals rebound — can gold hold the $4,280 line into the Fed decision?

Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.

Every major metal is higher today:

The move extends into equities: Hong Kong-listed gold miners rallied hard, with Lingbao Gold up as much as 7% and Chifeng Gold up 6-7%, as some funds began positioning for a "sell the rumour, buy the news" outcome on the Fed.

Three forces are behind the bounce.

The hike is already priced. CME FedWatch shows roughly 90% ~ 94.5% odds of a 25bp increase tonight, up from about 59% a week ago. When a move is that fully priced, the marginal seller steps back — and unloved assets like gold, which has fallen more than 3% this month, are the first to catch a bid.

The dollar's advance has stalled. The dollar index is holding near 99.6, below the two-week high of 99.73 touched earlier in the week, and the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back to just under 5% after Tuesday's spike. Gold's two biggest headwinds — a stronger dollar and rising real yields — have both paused.

The physical backdrop hasn't changed. Middle East supply risks are still live, and central-bank demand remains one of the four supports UBS cites for its $5,000 gold target.

Silver's chart offers the cleaner signal. After pulling back to test the $63.40 area — the lower bound of its September range — the metal has pushed back above $64, keeping its higher-lows structure from the July low intact.

The test now is whether this is a real breakout or a head fake:

• Support: $63.40 (today's low and the neckline zone), then $62.00 (50-day average area), then $60.00 (round number).

• Resistance: $65.00 (round number), then $66.00, then $70.00 (August high zone).

• A close above $64.86 (today's high) would confirm the breakout; a failure back below $63.40 would put the $62 neckline back in play — and a break there would open $60 and $55.

Gold's set-up mirrors silver's, with one number mattering more than the rest: $4,280. That zone marks both the September lows and the level the metal held on Monday when it printed a one-month low near $4,260.

• Support: $4,270 (September low zone), then $4,200 (August breakout base), then $4,160.

• Resistance: $4,341 (today's high), then the $4,400 ~ $4,470 zone (round number and the early-September high), then $4,539 — the 200-day moving average, which IG's Tony Sycamore says must be reclaimed to confirm the correction from the July peak near $4,700 is over.

• Sentiment is constructive but not euphoric: a Kitco survey this week found 64% of Wall Street analysts expect higher prices, and UBS reiterated a $5,000 medium-term target.

For Australian investors, the pullback has been cushioned by the currency: with AUD/USD at 0.7134, gold is worth roughly A$6,070 an ounce at current exchange rates. A dovish dot plot tonight (a median below 4.125% would suggest a one-and-done hike) would weaken the dollar and lift both metals in USD terms; a hawkish set of projections pointing to three hikes would test the supports above — and, for silver, make the difference between a genuine breakout and another failed rally.

Related reads: for the inflation and rate backdrop behind today's move, see Brent tests $108 as a key export pipeline stays shut; for the full market set-up into tonight's decision, see our daily brief.