USD/CNH: Mild rebound risk – OCBC

USD/CNH traded a low of 7.0710 last Fri following the break below 7.10 psychological level, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

It’s appreciation time for USD/CNH

“Market chatters of exporters caught long USD, rushing to offload after the pair broke key levels and month-end distortion. Daily momentum is flat while RSI shows signs of turning higher near oversold conditions. Rebound risk is not ruled out but technical levels can be breached if the USD bear trend continues.”

“Ongoing market chatters of USD conversion flows from exporters, funds may see bigger slippage if there is a panic rush and typically the break of downside key level can accelerate this move. Potential unwinding of Trump bets/hedges may also be another driver adding to the sell-off in USD/CNH. Key support at 7.07/7.08. If broken puts next support at 7.03, 7 levels (major support). Resistance at 7.14.”

“We will also pay close attention to USD/CNY daily fix for gauge on how comfortable policymakers are with regards to the pace of RMB appreciation. Today’s fix was set at 7.1027 even though USD/CNH was trading around 7.09. This may imply that policymakers are trying to slow the pace of appreciation this time.”