The US Dollar Index, a measure of the USD’s value against six other currencies, is firm ahead of tonight’s presidential debate. Markets are likely to react to the debate outcome, with analysts expecting volatility in currency markets depending on the perceived winner. Market focus is set on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures.
Despite positive economic indicators, the market may be exaggerating its expectations for aggressive monetary policy easing. The current growth rate exceeds the long-term trend, signaling that markets may be overestimating the need for such measures. However, a 25 bps cut would seem to be a done deal.
Technical analysis for the DXY indicates a slight improvement in sentiment. Indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), are still in negative territory but recovering, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The DXY index recently reclaimed the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 101.60, providing support to the short-term outlook.
To maintain this uptrend, buyers must continue to hold above this level. Key support levels to watch include 101.60, 101.30 and 101.00, while resistance levels lie at 101.80, 102.00 and 102.30.