Supply concerns drive European gas prices higher – Commerzbank

European gas prices have also been rising significantly for almost two weeks, with the European reference price TTF at EUR 40 per MWh, its highest level since early December, Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Barbara Lambrecht notes.

European gas prices go higher

“The main reason for the price increases in recent days is the fear of a short-term disruption of the remaining Russian pipeline supplies to the EU via Ukraine.”

“Gas supplies via the Sudzha crossing point are considered at risk due to the alleged advance of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region: According to Bloomberg, 3 to 5 percent of gas supplies still use this route; the customers are Austria and Slovakia, which still cover a large part of their needs.”

“The gas is still flowing, however: the Russian exporter reported only slightly reduced deliveries for Thursday, ultimately due to lower demand from customers. The transit agreement with Ukraine expires at the end of the year anyway. According to Bloomberg, there have been talks about extending it, but Ukraine has shown no willingness to do so.”