Australian Dollar surges to July 8 high vs New Zealand Dollar after Aussie GDP, RBNZ

• AUD/NZD gains strong positive traction amid a combination of supporting factors.
• The better-than-expected Australian Q2 GDP provides a modest lift to the Aussie.
• The NZD weakens after the RBNZ’s rate hike as traders eye post-meeting presser.

The AUD/NZD cross builds on the better-than-expected Australian data-inspired gains and rallies to the 1.2200 mark, or the highest since July 8, after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision.

As was widely expected, the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% at the conclusion of the September monetary policy meeting. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), however, weakens across the board in the absence of fresh hawkish signals in the accompanying policy statement. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor behind the latest leg of a sharp spike witnessed over the past hour or so.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) draws support from the domestic data, which showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026. The reading was higher than the 0.3% rise recorded in the previous quarter and consensus estimates, strengthening the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider policy tightening and backing the case for a further AUD/NZD rise.

Strategists at OCBC reiterate that their “base case remains that the RBA has reached the end of its tightening cycle,” but caution that recent data have complicated the picture. They highlight that “a stronger-than-expected CPI print and resilient household spending have kept the risk of another rate hike alive,” suggesting that while policy is likely at its peak, the door to further tightening has not been fully closed.

Traders now look forward to the RBNZ's post-meeting press conference, where comments from Governor Dr. Anna Breman will play a key role in influencing the sentiment surrounding the Kiwi. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/NZD cross is to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to be bought into.