Intel Stock Has Moved an Average of 16% the Day After Its Last 3 Reports. Should You Buy Before the Next One?

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is set to post its third-quarter results after the closing bell on Thursday, Oct. 29. And lately, the trading session after an Intel report has been wild.

The stock dropped 17% the day after Intel's January report, surged 24% after April's, and fell 8% after July's. These three moves average about 16% in one session.

With shares near $93 as I write, a move that size would mean about $15 a share up or down.

But the quarter Intel had just finished didn't set the direction. The company topped its own financial forecast all three times, and the stock still dropped twice. I think what management said about the coming months mattered more every time.

Image source: Intel.

January and April

In January, Intel posted fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion and $0.15 in non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share, both above the company's own outlook. But management forecast first-quarter 2026 revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with break-even adjusted earnings per share. The midpoint of that revenue range was around 11% under the fourth quarter's total.

"We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond," CFO David Zinsner said in the January earnings release.

Shares dropped 17% the next day.

Three months later, the outlook pointed up. Intel's first-quarter revenue of $13.6 billion was $1.4 billion over the midpoint of its forecast. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.29 also beat the break-even level management had guided for, but Zinsner said around 6 cents of that came from a one-time gain.

What's more, Intel forecast second-quarter revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion, up 2% to 9% over the first quarter. The stock surged 24% on April 24 -- its best day since 1987.

Why did the stock fall in July?

July's report was arguably the best of the three. Second-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion was up 25% from the year before and $1.8 billion above the midpoint of Intel's forecast. Revenue in its data center and AI segment jumped 59% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share landed at $0.42, more than twice the $0.20 management had guided for.

Yet the third-quarter forecast looked flatter. Its revenue midpoint of $16.3 billion sat only about 1% above the second quarter, and Intel guided for adjusted earnings per share of $0.38, down from $0.42. Intel also lifted its 2026 capital spending outlook to over $20 billion, which Zinsner said was "up significantly versus our expectations entering the year."

That 1% is a steep slowdown in Intel's sequential growth. Revenue was almost flat from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, dipping less than 1%. Then it climbed around 19% sequentially in the second quarter. A forecast of about 1% more is a big step down from that rate.

Shares fell 8% the next day, after briefly trading up early in the session. Granted, chip stocks broadly slid that day, too, so not all the drop was about Intel. Still, for the second time this year, a strong quarter wasn't enough to stop the stock from falling.

The fourth-quarter forecast might matter most

This makes Intel's fourth-quarter outlook arguably the number to watch on Oct. 29. In July, Zinsner said the timing of Intel's supply growth was "more skewed toward the end of Q3 and into Q4, especially for servers."

If this supply comes through, the fourth-quarter forecast might call for revenue rising again from the third quarter. A forecast for adjusted earnings per share over the $0.42 Intel earned in the second quarter may also show profits are growing again, not just sales.

To be fair, Intel's forecasts have been easy to beat lately. It topped its revenue midpoint by $1.4 billion and $1.8 billion over the past two quarters. But the stock has still dropped after two of its last three reports, both times alongside a forecast that pointed lower or flatter. And at around 44 times expected earnings for 2027, shares arguably already count on growth returning.

A 16% swing isn't a given, either. A year ago, the day after Intel's third-quarter 2025 report, the stock moved under 1%.

Personally, I wouldn't buy shares before the report. At around $93, I'd want to see what Intel forecasts for the fourth quarter first.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.