Social Security's Trump Bump-Fueled 2027 COLA Is About to Do Something That Hasn't Been Witnessed in 30 Years
Key Points
Social Security’s all-important cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) will be revealed tomorrow, Oct. 14, at 08:30 a.m. ET.
A second consecutive year with a Trump bump should yield one of the largest Social Security COLAs of the last 35 years.
If independent estimates are correct, Social Security is about to have a first-of-the-century moment.
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The most anticipated Social Security announcement of the year is just one day away. Tomorrow, Oct. 14, at 08:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September inflation report, providing the final data point needed to determine Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
Social Security's COLA is essentially a near-annual raise passed on to beneficiaries to offset the effects of inflation (rising prices). If benefits don't rise in lockstep with inflation, Social Security income would lose buying power over time.
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According to independent estimates, Social Security's 2027 COLA should be among the largest since 1993. But something even more historic is about to occur for the first time this century, fueled in part by President Donald Trump's policies.
A historic Trump bump is on the way in 2027. Image source: Official White House Photo by Joyce N. Boghosian.
A second straight year with a "Trump bump" will supercharge Social Security's 2027 raise
Inflation is nothing new for the U.S. economy. When the economy is expanding, it's perfectly normal for businesses to possess modest pricing power over their goods and services. But what we've witnessed in 2026 is two of Donald Trump's policies lighting a fire under the prevailing inflation rate.
For a second consecutive year, Trump's tariff and trade policy is boosting consumer prices. When duties are added to imported goods, it can increase domestic manufacturing costs, which are then passed on to consumers. In July, the Trump administration unveiled a new round of global tariffs on more than 80 countries.
Price changes over last year (August CPI report) Fuel Oil: +52.0% Gasoline: +27.4% Gas Utilities: +4.4% Electricity: +3.8% Apparel: +3.6% Overall CPI: +3.4% Food away from home: +3.4% Shelter: +3.0% Medical Care: +2.5% Transportation: +2.4% Food at home: +2.2% New Cars: +0.6% Used Cars: -2.3%
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 11, 2026
Additionally, the Trump-led Iran war is having a direct impact on the prevailing inflation rate. Iran's ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the daily maritime movement of approximately 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids. The result has been soaring fuel prices.
Independent estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan senior advocacy group, and Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, both call for a 3.5% cost-of-living adjustment. If accurate, it would tie for the sixth-largest Social Security COLA since 1993.
Image source: Getty Images.
Social Security's COLA is about to do something that hasn't been observed since 1997
But something even more historic than one of the largest Social Security raises of the last 35 years is about to occur.
Assuming TSCL's and Johnson's 2027 COLA forecasts are in the ballpark, it would mark the sixth consecutive year in which Social Security benefits rose by at least 2.5%:
- 2022: 5.9%
- 2023: 8.7% (the largest increase since 1982)
- 2024: 3.2%
- 2025: 2.5%
- 2026: 2.8%
- 2027: 3.5% (est.)
This six-year streak follows a decade of anemic or nonexistent COLAs. The 2010s featured three years without a COLA (2010, 2011, and 2016) and the smallest annual raise in history (0.3% in 2017).
BREAKING: 71 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2026. The average annual increase over the last decade: 3.1%. https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/pgqtPLgqMB
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2025
More importantly, it'll represent the first time in 30 years that Social Security beneficiaries will enjoy annual payout increases of at least 2.5% for six straight years. This last occurred from 1988 through 1997, when Social Security COLAs ranged from 2.6% to 5.4% per year.
Consistently above-average COLAs can lead to sizable nominal-dollar increases in monthly benefits.
At the same time, it also signals that inflation has been persistently elevated for years. Even though a first-of-the-century COLA streak is about to take place, the buying power of Social Security income isn't improving.
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