Palantir Stock Rose 60% in the Third Quarter. Here's What Its Other Big Quarters Did Next.

Shares of Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) closed September around 60% above where they started July, climbing from about $117 to about $187. Much of that came in one day. The stock surged around 29% the day after the company posted its second-quarter results on Aug. 3, a quarter when revenue rose 93% year over year.

That kind of quarter isn't new to longtime shareholders, though. By my count, it was the sixth time the AI software specialist's stock has gained 40% or more in a quarter since it started trading in September 2020.

After the other five, shares kept rising the next quarter four times. But five cases is a small sample, and the path behind each of those quarter-end numbers was far from smooth.

Image source: Getty Images.

Six big quarters

The first big quarter came just after the stock began trading, when shares climbed around 148% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The next didn't arrive until the second quarter of 2023, with an 81% gain. Then the gains came closer together: 47% in the third quarter of 2024, 103% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and 62% in the second quarter of 2025. The quarter that just finished makes six.

What came next was mainly good news. In the third quarter of 2023, the stock climbed around 4%, and it more than doubled in the fourth quarter of 2024. It added 12% in the first quarter of 2025 and 34% in the third quarter of 2025.

The only exception was the first quarter of 2021, when shares dipped around 1%.

In the middle case, the stock gained about 12% the next quarter. So, the record leans positive, but it doesn't suggest another 60% quarter.

Five cases make a thin record

Still, I wouldn't lean on this pattern much. Even leaving aside the small sample, the cases aren't fully separate from each other. Two of the big quarters sit back to back in 2024, so the 103% fourth quarter is both a big quarter and a follow-up.

The quarter-end numbers also hide plenty of movement. In the first quarter of 2021, the stock closed as much as 66% above where the quarter began in late January, then gave all of it back.

The first quarter of 2025 played out in a similar way. Shares closed as much as 65% higher in mid-February, then ended the quarter up around 12%.

And this recent rally is different in one key way. Palantir's stock dropped around 34% in the first half of 2026, so the third quarter's rise mostly made up lost ground.

Shares closed September only about 3% above where they finished September 2025.

Can revenue growth keep speeding up?

The business is arguably a better guide than the stock chart. And there, the trend is strong.

Palantir's revenue growth has accelerated for three straight quarters. It rose from 63% year over year in the third quarter of 2025 to 70% in the fourth quarter, then 85% in the first quarter of 2026. By the second quarter, growth hit 93% and revenue was around $1.9 billion.

Better still, profit grew faster than sales. Second-quarter net income came to about $1.06 billion, over three times what Palantir made a year before.

Management's outlook for the third quarter, though, calls for revenue of around $2.16 billion, or about 83% more than a year ago. That's still an impressive pace. But it would snap the streak of faster growth.

That said, Palantir has tended to beat its own forecasts. For each of the past three quarters, revenue came in about 6% to 7% above the top of management's range. A similar result this time might put third-quarter growth in the mid-90s -- another acceleration.

Palantir released its third-quarter results on Nov. 3 last year, so the next update's probably a few weeks away. This report might matter more for the stock than any pattern in its past.

After all, investors are paying a high price for that growth. At roughly $193 as of this writing, shares trade at about 165 times earnings. Even if Palantir doubled its profit from here, the stock would still cost over 80 times earnings.

Overall, Palantir's earlier big quarters lean in shareholders' favor, and the business behind this one is growing faster than a year ago. But a pattern based on five quarters doesn't tell investors much about a growth stock priced around 165 times earnings. That price is still too high for me to buy.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.