Nvidia Stock Price Forecast: Stock Expected to Challenge $300 as Largest-Ever Buyback Begins

TradingKey - On September 28, Eastern Time, Nvidia (NVDA) shares bucked the trend to rise amid broader pressure on tech stocks, with its newly announced mega stock buyback plan serving as the main catalyst. On September 28, Nvidia announced that its board of directors approved an additional $150 billion for its share repurchase authorization, raising the remaining executable amount to $235 billion, which it plans to execute before the end of fiscal year 2028, setting a record for the largest buyback authorization in U.S. stock market history. Following the announcement, Nvidia rose 1.68% that day to $228.86, touching an intraday high of $233.21, while the Nasdaq Index fell 0.92% during the same period, indicating that the buyback news provided clear independent support for Nvidia's share price.

Nvidia's $150 Billion Buyback Sets Record

According to an announcement by Nvidia, the company's board of directors approved an additional $150 billion authorization on top of its existing buyback program, bringing the remaining share buyback capacity to $235 billion. The company expects to complete the remaining buyback plan before fiscal year 2028. This new authorization surpasses Apple's $110 billion buyback plan announced in 2024, making it the largest single stock buyback authorization increase in U.S. corporate history.

Previously, Nvidia's board of directors had increased the buyback authorization by $80 billion in May, leaving approximately $99.3 billion remaining as of the end of July, and the new $150 billion authorization further expands its buyback capacity over the next two years. CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company's current cash generation capability enables Nvidia to return capital to shareholders while continuing to invest in AI and accelerated computing technologies.

For the stock price, large-scale buybacks typically provide support for earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares, while adding potential buying power during stock price pullbacks. However, it should be noted that $235 billion is an authorized amount and does not mean the funds will enter the market all at once immediately. Nvidia will still determine the actual pace of buybacks based on market conditions, working capital requirements, and other investment opportunities; therefore, short-term stock price performance will remain largely dependent on AI business growth, earnings expectations, and the overall market valuation environment.

Judging from market reaction, on the day the buyback news was announced, Nvidia bucked the trend to rise 1.68% amid declines in most megacap tech and semiconductor stocks, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index came under noticeable pressure during the same period. This indicates that capital responded directly and positively to the capital return plan.

Nvidia Stock Price Technical Analysis

Nvidia weekly stock price chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at Nvidia's weekly chart, the stock price has repeatedly tested the $230 level to the upside. Although it briefly broke above several times, the weekly closing price failed to hold effectively above this level, indicating heavy resistance at this position.

Currently, the stock price is testing the $230 resistance level once again. If the closing price this week can hold effectively above this level, the stock will further challenge its all-time high of $236.54. If the stock reaches a new all-time high, it will further open up upside toward the $300–$320 range.

On the downside, the primary support level to watch below is near $225, followed by $221. If this level fails to hold, the stock price may test the support level at $215, and further down, it could pull back to around $210.