Prediction: Netflix Stock Gets Back to $100 Before 2030

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock hasn't kept up with its business lately. The streamer's operating income climbed 11% year over year in the second quarter, and management sees more than 20% growth for the full year.

But its shares trade near $72 as I write this, down about 43% from a 52-week high of $124.86.

This gap is a key reason I think the stock can make up a good chunk of the lost ground. My prediction: Netflix stock gets back to $100 before 2030. And I don't think it takes much more than Netflix doing what its own forecasts already lay out.

Image source: Netflix.

About 11% a year

Going from around $72 to $100 takes a 39% rise. Over the roughly three and a quarter years left before 2030, that's about 11% a year.

Netflix projects 2026 revenue of $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion, and it expects its operating margin to widen to 31.5% this year, up from 29.5% in 2025 and 26.7% in 2024. If revenue rises about 11% a year from the middle of that range, it hits around $70 billion in 2029. And if the operating margin keeps widening by about 1.5 percentage points a year (slower than the past two years), it lands near 36% in 2029. That gives operating income near $25 billion.

Then, I assumed taxes and interest take around the same cut of operating income they did in 2025. And if buybacks keep shrinking the share count by about 2% a year (the diluted count dropped about 2% in the last year), earnings per share come to about $5.20 in 2029.

A $100 share price would put the stock at around 19 times those 2029 earnings. That's near the price-to-earnings multiple Netflix has now on analysts' consensus estimate for 2027 earnings. (A $2.8 billion Warner Bros. termination fee inflates this year's profits.)

Put another way, the prediction depends on earnings growth, not on investors paying a higher valuation multiple.

Ads and pricing have to drive the growth

The tougher assumption is 11% yearly revenue growth. Year-over-year revenue growth was 16% in the first quarter and 13% in the second, and Netflix is guiding for around 12% in the third. Growth has been decelerating right toward the pace this prediction needs -- and it mostly has to stop slowing there.

Advertising could provide a big part of it. Netflix's 2025 ad revenue of over $1.5 billion was more than two and a half times what it brought in during 2024, and management expects around $3 billion this year. If ads hit about $9 billion by 2029 (a slower rate than this year's doubling), they could make up about a third of the roughly $19 billion in new annual revenue the path above requires.

The rest has to come from memberships and pricing. Leaving out ads, Netflix's revenue should rise around 10% this year based on its guidance. The path above needs about 8% yearly growth after that.

Price hikes should help. Management said its first-half price changes, including in the U.S., performed in line with earlier increases.

Notably, U.S. and Canada revenue growth fell from 18% for the last quarter of 2025 to 14% and then 10% in the first half of this year. But management said the second quarter showed just a partial-quarter effect of its latest price change there, so growth in Netflix's home region could firm up.

Is $100 a stretch?

I don't think $100 is a stretch, even if growth is below 11%. If revenue rises just 8% a year through 2029 instead, the same margin and buyback assumptions put earnings per share near $4.80.

At $100, the stock would then trade at around 21 times earnings. That's a higher valuation multiple than the stock has on next year's expected earnings, but not an extreme one for a company this profitable.

The margin assumption arguably looks safer. Netflix expects content amortization (the cost of its programming, spread over time) to climb around 10% in 2026, slower than its forecast of 13% to 14% revenue growth. If that continues, the operating margin should keep widening.

Sure, growth might not stop at 12%. Streaming's crowded, and single-digit growth with a flat margin could leave the stock well below $100.

Can Netflix stock get back to $100 before 2030? I expect it to.

But about 11% a year is a healthy return, not a stellar one, and it assumes growth settles near where management expects. At around $72, I think the stock's fairly priced, so I'm in no rush to buy shares. And any forecast that goes past three years is just an educated guess.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.