US Dollar: Cyclical support and energy resilience – HSBC

Source Fxstreet

HSBC’s FX Viewpoint argues the broad US Dollar is likely to strengthen modestly in the near term as cyclical, political and structural forces turn more supportive. The bank highlights firm US rate expectations relative to other economies, resilience in energy prices and a reassessment of US fiscal risks as factors favouring the Dollar versus major peers.

USD supported by rates and energy

"We expect the broad USD to strengthen modestly in the near term as cyclical, political and structural forces turn more supportive or become less of a headwind."

"The key question is whether US rate expectations will remain firm relative tothose elsewhere."

"However, energy-price resilience and a broader reassessment of fiscal risk should also favour the USD at the margin."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Memory chips surge, Nasdaq notches a second straight record close — why the Dow fell 185 points anywayMicron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Micron gained 5%, SanDisk 6.8%, Seagate 4% and Western Digital 3% as the memory complex led the Nasdaq Composite to a second consecutive record close of 27,244.28. But the Dow fell 185 points as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Schwab slid more than 3% each — a split tape that says more about positioning than about the economy.
placeholder
US input costs rose at the fastest pace in four years — the September flash PMI beat is an inflation story, not a growth storyUS September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
Author  Suzie
Sep 24, Thu
US September flash PMIs came in far above expectations, with the composite at 58.4, a five-year high. But the detail that moved markets was input cost inflation at its fastest since October 2022, driven by fuel, transport and supply shortages. Brent is back above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest since 2007.
placeholder
WTI (USOIL) Is down 2.03% on Sep 25: Here Is WhyWTI (USOIL) is down 2.03% at Sep 24 22:20(UTC+0), now at $92.517, with a 7-day down of 3.63%.What is driving WTI (USOIL)’s stock price down today?The drop in WTI crude oil prices was primarily driven by
Author  TradingKey
Sep 25, Fri
WTI (USOIL) is down 2.03% at Sep 24 22:20(UTC+0), now at $92.517, with a 7-day down of 3.63%.What is driving WTI (USOIL)’s stock price down today?The drop in WTI crude oil prices was primarily driven by
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
7 hours ago
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote