Where Will Berkshire Hathaway Stock Be in 5 Years?

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKA)(NYSE:BRKB) is off to a strong start in its first year under CEO Greg Abel. Second-quarter operating earnings rose 16% from a year earlier. The stock, near $505 as of this writing, puts the company's market value at about $1.1 trillion.

Whether the next five years look as good is a harder call. Over a stretch that long, the stock should mostly track two numbers -- how fast operating earnings grow, and what multiple of those earnings investors will pay.

And both numbers hinge, arguably more than anything else, on what Abel does with the company's $365 billion of cash and U.S. Treasury bills.

Image source: Getty Images.

Strong growth, and a price to match

Operating earnings are Berkshire's preferred yardstick. The measure leaves out the stock portfolio's gains and losses, which swing reported net income from quarter to quarter and which the company says are usually meaningless in any given period.

On that measure, the company earned about $13 billion during the second quarter. First-half operating earnings totaled $24.3 billion, 17% more than a year earlier.

The growth is a rebound, not a continuation. Operating earnings slipped 6% in 2025, to $44.5 billion, dragged down by weaker insurance results.

This year, growth is broad-based outside insurance. BNSF, the energy business, and the manufacturing, service and retailing group all grew first-half earnings between about 10% and 15% year over year.

Add up the past four reported quarters, and Berkshire has earned about $48 billion of operating earnings, or about $22 for every Class B share. Against a $505 share price, that comes to about 23 times operating earnings -- a premium price, in my view. Investors are paying today for growth that hasn't happened yet.

Greg Abel has started spending the cash

Berkshire's cash and U.S. Treasury bills stood at about $365 billion at midyear, a little less than at the start of the year.

In January, the company closed its $9.4 billion purchase of the chemicals maker OxyChem. In late July, it paid about $6.8 billion in cash for homebuilder Taylor Morrison. And it repurchased about $4.5 billion of its own stock in the second quarter, after buying back almost none in the first. The buyback decision is Abel's now, made in consultation with chairman Warren Buffett.

Berkshire was a net buyer of stocks, too. The cost basis of Berkshire's equity portfolio rose about $21 billion during the first half.

Those uses of cash do different jobs for the five-year math. An acquisition adds operating earnings directly. Stock purchases mostly add just dividend income, since portfolio gains sit outside the operating measure. And buybacks shrink the share count, down about 0.5% through June, so each share gets a bigger piece of the earnings.

Meanwhile, the case for leaving the cash parked may get weaker. After all, Berkshire's insurance investment income fell about 8% in the first half, a decline the company attributed to lower short-term interest rates. The less Treasury bills pay, the more the five-year outcome depends on Abel finding better places for the money.

Where could the stock land?

Assume growth settles at 5% a year, slower than 2026 but better than 2025, and that investors put a lower valuation multiple on a slower Berkshire -- say, 18 times operating earnings. Per-share operating earnings would reach about $29 by mid-2031, and the stock would sit near $525. Five years of almost nothing.

The upside case leans on the cash. If acquisitions and buybacks help operating earnings compound at 10% a year (a pace the company has beaten so far in 2026), and the stock keeps a valuation near 22 times operating earnings, per-share earnings reach about $37. The stock lands a little above $800, about a 10% annual return.

The stock portfolio adds noise to every path. Berkshire's five largest holdings made up 66% of its $324 billion equity portfolio at midyear: Alphabet, American Express, Apple, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola. Of course, a rough stretch for even one or two of those positions could move what investors pay for the whole company. But the portfolio is only about 30% of Berkshire's market value, and its swings don't touch operating earnings at all.

Ultimately, I'd split the difference. Growth near 8% and a valuation of 20 times operating earnings would put the shares around $650 in five years, a mid-single-digit annual return, plus whatever Abel's dealmaking adds on top.

But here's what's interesting about this investment. The downside risk seems low given Berkshire's cash, and there are scenarios that could be far more bullish than we've outlined here if the company deploys its cash into the right assets at the right time. For that reason, I believe Berkshire is a great core holding, even if expectations for the stock are modest. I believe the stock offers meaningful upside potential with low downside risk.

American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Sparks and his clients have positions in Apple and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, American Express, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.