EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit the safe-haven JPY

Source Fxstreet
  • EUR/JPY attracts some sellers on Monday amid reviving demand for the safe-haven JPY.
  • Subdued USD demand offers support to the Euro, which could limit losses for the cross.
  • The divergent BoJ-ECB policy expectations warrant some caution for bullish traders.

The EUR/JPY cross kicks off the new week on a weaker note and moves away from over a three-week top, around the 163.75 area touched on Friday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices back below the 163.00 mark during the Asian session, though it lacks bearish conviction.

Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for an immediate de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if US President Donald Trump had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Moreover, China has repeatedly denied any ongoing tariff talks with the US. This, in turn, benefits the Japanese Yen's (JPY) relative safe-haven status and exerts some downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross.

Investors, however, remain hopeful about the possibility of an eventual US-China trade deal. Moreover, market participants now seem to have pushed back their expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to economic risks from US tariffs. This, in turn, holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, subdued US Dollar (USD) price action lends some support to the shared currency and could limit any meaningful downfall for the EUR/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for more BoJ rate hikes this year. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier this month warned that economic growth will take a big hit from US tariffs and bolstered the case for further policy easing in the months ahead. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the EUR/JPY cross is to the downside. However, the recent breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrants caution for bears.

Japanese Yen PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.04% 0.03% -0.16% -0.01% -0.03% -0.12% -0.24%
EUR 0.04% 0.00% -0.13% 0.00% -0.09% -0.09% -0.23%
GBP -0.03% -0.01% -0.15% 0.01% -0.11% -0.11% -0.23%
JPY 0.16% 0.13% 0.15% 0.17% 0.17% -1.36% 0.18%
CAD 0.01% -0.01% -0.01% -0.17% -0.13% -0.11% -0.22%
AUD 0.03% 0.09% 0.11% -0.17% 0.13% 0.00% -0.13%
NZD 0.12% 0.09% 0.11% 1.36% 0.11% -0.00% -0.12%
CHF 0.24% 0.23% 0.23% -0.18% 0.22% 0.13% 0.12%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Hurricane Isaias has shut in a quarter of Gulf oil output — can WTI clear $92 before Thursday's EIA report?WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 09, Fri
WTI trades at $90.80 after rebounding roughly 3% from Wednesday's $87.96 low as Hurricane Isaias — the Atlantic season's first — forces producers to shut in about 25% of US Gulf of Mexico output. Brent holds at $103.41. The first official read on the disruption arrives with the EIA weekly petroleum report on Thursday 15 October — here are the key levels and both scenarios.
placeholder
Gold Price Forecast: Gold Rebounds Above $4,200, Can Falling Oil Prices Drive Another Rally?As of Friday (October 9), gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded noticeably after consecutive declines. During today's Asian session, gold prices briefly rebounded above $4,200, reaching an intra
Author  TradingKey
Oct 09, Fri
As of Friday (October 9), gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded noticeably after consecutive declines. During today's Asian session, gold prices briefly rebounded above $4,200, reaching an intra
placeholder
US September CPI preview: inflation set to hit 3.7% — will the Fed hike in December?US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 10, Sat
US September CPI lands Wednesday with headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m. December hike odds sit near 70% — here are the scenarios, the calendar and the key levels.
placeholder
Gold posts first weekly gain in three weeks — can $4,200 hold through CPI?Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 10, Sat
Spot gold closed at $4,194.645, up 1.47% — its first weekly gain in three weeks — and COMEX futures settled back above $4,200 at $4,220.30. Here are the drivers, the levels and the scenarios into Wednesday's CPI.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote