CEE FX: Data-heavy week under global pressure – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky highlights a busy Central and Eastern Europe calendar with Czech inflation, Turkey’s inflation report and key Polish data, including GDP and core inflation. He notes CEE assets remain driven by global headlines, higher Oil prices and narrowing rate differentials, with EUR/CZK in focus after closing above 24.250 and seen with upside risk toward 24.300.

Global factors steer regional FX

"Outside Romania’s busy calendar, the rest of the CEE week brings final Czech inflation on Tuesday, with headline CPI expected to be confirmed at 1.7% and the focus on core inflation, which we see unchanged around 2.8-2.9%."

"On Thursday, Turkey’s central bank will publish its inflation report, while Poland will release final CPI, likely confirming 3.0%, alongside 2Q GDP. We estimate Polish GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% YoY from 3.5% YoY in 1Q26, despite a further slowdown in private consumption, as investment growth gained momentum."

"CEE markets remain mainly driven by global headlines. With no progress in US-Iran talks over the weekend, we expect a mixed open, especially after Friday’s regional rates rally following US jobs data."

"Higher oil prices could trigger some correction, while last week’s narrowing in rate differentials may put pressure on CEE currencies this morning. EUR/CZK remains in focus after closing above 24.250 on Friday, in line with our post-Czech National Bank meeting call, though we still see upside risk closer to 24.300."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)