USD/CNH: Price action continues to suggest USD weakness – UOB Group
Source Fxstreet
The US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge lower; any decline is not expected to reach the support at 6.9400. In the longer run, price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace; the levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.
Levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200
24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Thursday, USD plummeted and closed sharply lower. Last Friday, we indicated that ‘the outsized decline has resulted in oversold conditions, and USD is unlikely to weaken much further.’ We expected USD to ‘trade in a range between 6.9700 and 7.0100.’ USD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (6.9725/7.0040). Despite closing slightly higher at 6.9806 (+0.11%), the underlying tone appears to have softened. Today, we expect USD to drift lower, but any decline is unlikely to reach the support at 6.9400 (there is a minor support level at 6.9580). Resistance is at 6.9930, followed by 7.0050.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as last Friday (27 Sep, spot at 6.9810). As indicated, the recent price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace. The levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200. On the upside, a breach of 7.0350 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 7.0450 last Friday) would mean that USD is not weakening further.”
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline this weekend, briefly erasing its 2025 gains and dipping below its year-opening value of $93,507. The cryptocurrency fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, representing a 25% drop from its all-time high in October. Although it has rebounded slightly to around $94,209, the pressures on the market remain significant.
The downturn occurred despite the reopening of the U.S. government on Thursday, which many had hoped would provide essential support for crypto markets. This year initially appeared promising for cryptocurrencies, particularly after the inauguration of President Donald Trump, who has established the most pro-crypto administration thus far. However, ongoing political tensions—including Trump's tariff strategies and the recent government shutdown, lasting a historic 43 days—have contributed to several rapid price pullbacks for Bitcoin throughout the year.
Market dynamics are also being influenced by Bitcoin whales—investors holding large amounts of Bitcoin—who have been offloading portions of their assets, consequently stalling price rallies even as positive regulatory developments emerge. Despite these sell-offs, analysts from Glassnode argue that this behavior aligns with typical patterns seen among long-term investors during the concluding stages of bull markets, suggesting it is not indicative of a mass exodus.
Notably, Bitcoin is not alone in its struggles, as Ethereum and Solana have also recorded declines of 7.95% and 28.3%, respectively, since the start of the year, while numerous altcoins have faced even steeper losses.
Looking ahead, questions linger regarding the viability of the four-year cycle thesis, particularly given the increasing institutional support and regulatory frameworks now in place in the crypto landscape. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, remains optimistic, suggesting a potential Bitcoin resurgence in 2026 driven by the “debasement trade” thesis and a broader trend toward increased adoption of stablecoins, tokenization, and decentralized finance. Hougan emphasized the soundness of the underlying fundamentals, pointing to a positive outlook for the sector in the longer term.
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