XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?

Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself.

The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets. XRP, with more beta than Bitcoin, was one of the biggest beneficiaries.

That leaves XRP at a critical point. The token is holding near $1.50 after touching $1.70, but the rally alone doesn’t confirm that the long-awaited bottom is in. A sustained move above $2.00 would strengthen the case for a structural recovery, while failure to hold recent gains could expose XRP to another correction.

"XRP's near-term path is likely to keep tracking the broader altcoin complex rather than break out on a story of its own. This week's rally has a macro root – the Treasury's move to expand long-end bond buybacks pushed yields down and lifted risk assets broadly, and altcoins simply carry more beta to that kind of liquidity injection than Bitcoin does," Iliya Kalchev, Nexo Dispatch Analyst, highlighted in an exclusive comment to FXStreet.

Ripple ecosystem expansion

Ripple continues to make headlines with its global regulatory and partnership milestones, backed by the deployment of approximately $4 billion in strategic capital.

The blockchain company has strategically developed a robust ecosystem by acquiring prime brokerage capabilities, modern treasury management systems (TMS), instant stablecoin payments infrastructure, and institutional-grade custody solutions.

In late October 2025, Ripple executed a series of strategic acquisitions: Hidden Road ($1.25 billion, rebranded as Ripple Prime), GTreasury ($1 billion), and Rail ($200 million), further strengthening its institutional offering. Other acquisitions include Metaco, Palisade and Standard Custody & Rail.

Concurrently, Ripple secured more than 60 regulatory licenses and permits worldwide, achieving milestone approvals in the Europe Union’s (EU) Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), Luxembourg’s Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license approved by the country’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) as well as other compliance licenses in the Asia Pacific (APAC), the Middle East and Africa regions, as stated in various press releases and policy briefings.

"However, investors should stop treating every Ripple acquisition, license or partnership as automatically bullish for XRP. The token only captures value when institutions need to hold it, source liquidity through it or use it repeatedly for settlement," Ryan Kirkley, Co-founder & CEO of Global Settlement Network, said in a written comment to FXStreet.

Ripple’s expansion gives XRP more opportunities to prove its utility. It does not guarantee that utility, and it certainly does not guarantee price appreciation.

Ripple Payments and the shift to multi-asset rails

Ripple Payments has evolved over the years from the former On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) to a product with a worldwide presence. The platform offers institutional-grade custody, fiat and stablecoin rails and other digital assets, including Ripple USD (RLUSD) and XRP.

“Ripple’s compliance build-out is substantial and hard to replicate quickly: more than 60 regulatory licenses globally, full MiCA authorization across the entire EU economic bloc, a new Middle East and Africa hub in Dubai, and a cleared US legal case, on top of capital commitments like the $1.25 billion Hidden Road acquisition. That gives XRP a genuine structural advantage a new entrant can’t shortcut overnight,” Kalchev added.

Despite Ripple’s compliance powerhouse, partnerships and acquisition spree, experts appear to differ on whether ecosystem developments translate to utility for XRP and growth in the token’s value.

Dean Chen, Bitunix analyst, sees long-term value in XRP, suggesting partial allocation in portfolios. Still, Chen cautions investors to temper expectations and assess how much value the token can capture from Ripple’s growing ecosystem, given varying global liquidity conditions.

“Ripple’s ecosystem expansion is clearly positive for XRP, but Ripple’s commercial success and XRP’s investment value are not necessarily equivalent. Growth in cross-border payments and institutional adoption can create more use cases for XRP, but the key question is whether that activity translates into sustained demand and effective value capture for the token,” Chen told FXStreet.

Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD, could steal the limelight from XRP, as it appeals to institutional investors looking to avoid crypto-related volatility while offering a regulated platform.

Ripple's ultimate test would be to create a symbiotic relationship between the expanding ecosystem and XRP to ensure long-term growth.

Shawn Young, Chief Analyst at MEXC Research, told FXStreet that “If that growth leads banks and liquidity providers to hold and use more XRP, the token has a much stronger case. If most of it runs through RLUSD, other stablecoins, or infrastructure that barely touches XRP, investors should not expect Ripple’s success to automatically show up in the token price.”

XRP outlook improves on renewed on-chain activity

A closer examination of activity on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows renewed user participation. Addresses that transact on the protocol, either by receiving or sending value, have recently surged, peaking at roughly 305,000 on Sunday, up from around 25,000 on August 1, according to Santiment.

The surge in on-chain activity reinforces an improving fundamental outlook and raises the probability of an extended recovery as demand for XRP gains momentum.

Still, the number of addresses joining the network has remained subdued this year. Newly created addresses on the XRPL averaged 475 on Sunday, down from roughly 4,100 on Saturday and 6,600 in late June. This suggests fewer new users are joining the protocol, which could translate to lower demand for XRP and, in turn, limit potential recovery.

The amount of XRP balances on known exchanges has declined, averaging 2.61 billion XRP as of Sunday, from 2.63 billion XRP on Saturday. This figure falls significantly below the annual peak of 2.81 billion XRP, recorded in early March.

The correction shows XRP is gradually moving off Binance, as investors choose self-custody platforms for long-term holding. Notably, declining exchange reserves suggest reduced immediate available sell-side supply.

US-listed XRP spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have also supported the bullish case, recording six consecutive weeks of inflows and lifting cumulative net inflows to $1.55 billion.

XRP derivatives market cools

The XRP derivatives market remains significantly elevated compared to levels seen at the beginning of the year. According to CoinGlass, perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) stands at 2.5 billion XRP on Monday, up only marginally from 2.42 billion XRP the previous day. Looking back, OI averaged 1.84 billion on January 1, underscoring growing risk-on sentiment.

Still, investors should temper expectations, as OI has narrowed over the past few days to 2.78 billion as of August 15. A steady increase in futures OI is required to support XRP’s short to medium-term recovery.

After trading volume surged and peaked at $18.53 billion on Saturday, it has moderated to $9.32 billion at the time of writing. This could suggest that investors are gauging prevailing market conditions and whether they can sustain last week’s 72% rally from $1.00 to $1.70. 

Technical outlook: Is XRP’s bullish comeback sustainable?

The remittance token's current position around $1.51 holds above notable levels including $1.50 and $1.25, underscoring renewed risk appetite. Nonetheless, it remains unclear whether that rally is sustainable or temporarily driven by liquidity and last week's US Treasury’s open-market buybacks.

The pair holds above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.37, supporting a medium-term constructive tone, but it remains capped by the 50-week EMA at $1.55 and the 100-week EMA at $1.60, keeping the near-term bias neutral as those barriers hold overhead.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator sits above zero with a positive reading, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 57 suggests moderately bullish momentum, yet these signals only hint at upside potential that would need a weekly close above the clustered EMAs to gain traction.

Immediate resistance lies at the 50-week EMA at $1.55, followed by the 100-week EMA at $1.60, where a break higher would open the way for a more decisive bullish extension. The current price area around $1.50 acts as a pivot, with stronger structural support emerging at the 200-week EMA at $1.37 and then the SuperTrend baseline at $0.96, levels that would be expected to attract buyers on deeper pullbacks while the broader uptrend attempt remains in place.

Still, momentum is stretched, with the RSI hovering in overbought territory near 86 on the daily chart and the MACD above zero, suggesting strong but potentially overextended upside pressure.

On the downside, initial support lies at the 200-day EMA around $1.35, ahead of the SuperTrend zone near $1.25, which marks the next technical floor if a deeper correction unfolds. Below that, the 50-day and 100-day EMAs clustered between $1.14 and $1.18 hint at additional underlying demand, where buyers could look to re-enter if the pair unwinds part of its recent gains.

Ultimately, it is impossible to time a bottom; investors should closely monitor the token and watch for new trends forming from extended sideways action to steady price increases, which could help identify strong support levels. Last week's surge marked XRP's strongest week since July 2025. However, profit-taking remains an overhang risk that could trigger a short-term correction as XRP seeks liquidity before the next breakout. Looking down, the region between $1.00 and $1.25 is a critical support area that will likely continue to absorb selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)