SpaceX's Next Starship Launch Will Generate Revenue -- Sort Of

This is the week, and Monday is the day. After 13 test flights in which its Starship flew intentionally suborbital paths that never quite orbited the Earth, SpaceX is scheduled on Sept. 28 to attempt to send Starship on a trip all the way around the Earth for the first time.

It might also generate some revenue for SpaceX.

Starship Flight 14 aims to launch at 9:30 a.m. Monday and to orbit Earth six times over 10 hours before splashing down just west of Chile in the Pacific Ocean. Neither the Starship itself nor its Super Heavy booster will attempt a tower landing on this test flight.

Both will end up in the drink.

Image source: SpaceX.

What's different about Flight 14?

The fact that Starship (both the name of the launch system and of the rocketship's second stage, which is designed to carry either cargo or passengers) will complete an orbit (actually, six of them) is the first big difference about this mission. SpaceX also notes that it has made certain hardware modifications to improve engine performance and software changes to enhance relight reliability. The company has also tweaked some of Starship's protective heat shield tiles to improve their performance.

But another change to this flight could be even more important to investors in Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock.

SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen calls Tuesday's flight Starship's first commercial, non-demonstration mission, with plans to place 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. Starship is currently the only launch vehicle large enough to carry SpaceX's Starlink V3 satellites, each of which is rated for 1 terabyte per second of download transmission -- 10x the downlink capacity of the company's V2 mini satellites. (Space analysts estimate the V3 satellite has a mass of nearly two tons -- three times the size of a V2 mini -- so 3x the mass for 10x the performance.)

Johnsen further argues that Flight 14 will be Starship's first "revenue-generating flight."

How Starship generates revenue for SpaceX

This statement is a bit more controversial than it sounds. As I explained back in June, SpaceX post-IPO (initial public offering) is a complicated beast, comprising three separate but interconnected businesses:

• Space (rocketships and rocket launches).
• Connectivity (Starlink internet broadband satellites).
• and AI (artificial intelligence).

Now, you might think that when the company's Space segment launches Starlink satellites for the Connectivity business -- as will happen on Flight 14 -- SpaceX would have the former bill the latter for the service, such that Space recognizes revenue from Connectivity paying for the launch.

But SpaceX itself says that's not the case.

Referring to the company's own IPO Prospectus:

For launches of our Starlink satellites, the Company does not recognize any inter-segment revenue, rather those launch costs are capitalized in satellites in Property, plant, and equipment, net. We allocate a significant amount of launch capacity to our Connectivity segment, and expect to allocate a significant amount to our AI segment in the future. Our Space segment revenue only reflects our customer launches and customer activities.

Furthermore:

For launches dedicated to deploying our Starlink satellites, we capitalize the associated costs within our Connectivity segment and depreciate them over time, and we do not recognize revenue for those launches in our Space segment.

Let me emphasize that last point: This means that "Space is getting zero revenue from launches it performs for Connectivity."

What this means for investors

So how does this fit with the CFO's assertion that Starship Flight 14 will be "revenue-generating"?

There are a couple of possible answers. One might be that the CFO simply misspoke -- that SpaceX is still capitalizing Starlink launch costs, and Connectivity will not, in fact, credit Space with revenue for this flight.

Or Johnsen might have said something technically incorrect but true in a broader sense. Carrying Starlink V3 satellites to orbit won't directly generate revenue for SpaceX, but down the line, as the satellites are put in service, Starlink subscribers will pay to use them -- and that's revenue for the company.

A third possibility is that Johnsen inadvertently hinted that SpaceX is changing its accounting policy and will begin tracking "inter-segment revenue" between Connectivity and Space going forward.

Last but not least (and most intriguing) is the possibility that Starlinks aren't the only payload going up on Starship Flight 14. There may be other cargo on the rocket from a customer other than SpaceX, which is paying part of the launch cost and generating revenue from the launch.

Which answer is the right one? I honestly don't know -- but I'm eager to watch the launch tomorrow and find out.

Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.