Social Security's Upcoming COLA Forecast Was Just Updated: Here's How Much Your Check Could Grow

If you're eager to know how much your Social Security benefits will increase in 2027, you shouldn't have to wait much longer. The Social Security Administration should be able to officially announce a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027 on Oct. 14.

For now, though, there are estimates that can give you a sense of how much your monthly check might increase. Just don't get too comfortable with that number if you're also enrolled in Medicare.

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What the current COLA projections look like

Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). We have data for July and August. But September's reading won't be available until Oct. 14, which is why the upcoming COLA can't be announced prior to that date.

Based on August's recently released data, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, updated its COLA projection to 3.5%. Independent analyst Mary Johnson updated her COLA number to match that 3.5% estimate, while AARP raised its estimate to 3.6%.

The average monthly Social Security benefit as of this writing, meanwhile, is $2,086. So if there's a 3.5% COLA, the typical benefit could increase by about $73. If the COLA is 3.6%, that raise could come in at more like $75.

Of course, you'll need to see what your monthly benefit amounts to and run a calculation accordingly. But doing so should give you a basic idea of how much your checks will grow in 2027.

There's a big wild card factor to keep in mind

While current COLA projections should give you a sense of what to expect in 2027, there are two important things to remember. First, the actual COLA could come in higher or lower, depending on how inflation trends in September.

If inflation cools, next year's COLA may not be quite as high as 3.5%. If it picks up, the actual COLA could be more generous.

Secondly, if you're enrolled in Medicare, you'll need to account for an increase in the cost of Part B before calculating your final raise. That's because Part B premiums are paid out of Social Security directly for dual enrollees.

Last year, the cost of Medicare Part rose by $17.90. If this year's increase is large as well, it could erode whatever raise comes through from Social Security.

Unfortunately, Medicare doesn't typically announce Part B costs until November. So even once an official Social Security COLA is announced, you may have to wait a bit longer to get the full picture.

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