This Institutional Investor Thinks Ethereum Will Outperform Solana During the Next 12 Months. Could It Happen?

When Standard Chartered began covering Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) in May 2025, its digital assets research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicted that the coin would lag behind Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), with one Ethereum coin buying 17 Solana coins by 2028, up from 14. Today, one Ether buys roughly 25 SOL.

In other words, that call hit it out of the park. The bank still expects Ethereum to outperform Solana, due to the expectation that Solana will struggle to scale up during the next year or so. That's a position the bank has held since mid-2025 and reaffirmed most recently at a conference in July. Is the prediction going to come true once again?

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The trend is moving the wrong way this time

The crypto bear market has made optimistic predictions about crypto prices significantly more difficult than last year, when the bull market was still in full swing.

Standard Chartered cut its end-2026 Solana target from $310 to $250 on Feb. 3. It cut again nine days later, to $135. The bank also slashed its price target for Ethereum, from $7,500 to $4,000. Both of those targets may still prove to be far too optimistic.

At their recent prices -- about $86 for Solana and $2,270 for Ethereum -- the bank is effectively predicting that Ethereum will almost double, and that Solana rise by 57%. It also implies one Ethereum coin fetching nearly 30 Solana coins by December, even further past the 17 projected for 2028.

Both blockchains are debating whether to change foundational rules about how their tokenomics and staking economics work, and both are in the process of developing major upgrades.

Solana's validators are voting on two Solana Governance Proposals (SGPs), SGP-0002 and SGP-0003, that would cut the pace for issuing new coins in half over time, and lift its maximum daily coin burns -- and taking them permanently out of circulation -- from about 650 into the thousands. Ethereum has a comparable idea in one of its Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), EIP-8363. If implemented, it would burn a rising share of validator rewards, which are paid in Ether coins.

All these proposals would route value toward holders and away from stakers who lock up their coins to support the network, receiving those rewards in exchange. That could make these cryptos more attractive investments and thus boost their values if passed.

Historically, such major overhauls have been rejected by those with voting power. Because Solana and Ethereum are in tight competition with each other, things might be different this time, and it's very plausible that one could make holder-friendly reforms while the other fails to do so. That means Ethereum could well outperform Solana during the next 12 months, though it's far from guaranteed and the reverse is also possible.

Scaling could be another decisive issue

During the past couple of years, Ethereum's bull case has started to lean on boosting the chain's throughput with bigger blocks and cheaper transactions.

On Aug. 17, the chain's developers confirmed that the launch date for Glamsterdam, the next major upgrade that would substantially improve the network's throughput, was pushed back by as much as six months, to the fourth quarter of 2026. Hegota, the one slated for development and launch after Glamsterdam, was pushed into 2027, with 66 proposed changes currently being evaluated in triage, and a shortlist of proposals to consider in depth for final inclusion being due Aug. 27.

None of this is very bearish for Ethereum. In crypto, it's normal for major updates to be delayed significantly. But the delay does mean that the version of Ethereum in which it outperforms Solana as a result of its scaling is only going to arrive later, if it arrives at all. Solana's comparable vote is set to resolve within weeks.

So could Ethereum beat Solana over the next year? There's no way to rule it out. Its lead in stablecoins and certain types of tokenized assets is quite large, and it may get a boost from the launch of Glamsterdam and eventually Hegota.

The figure to track is neither coin's price today, as it doesn't really matter given what's coming. If Glamsterdam misses the Q4 launch window, or Solana's proposals pass, the case for Ethereum outperforming it will get much weaker.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Ethereum and Solana. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Ethereum and Solana. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.