S&P 500 Is Up 12% in 2026 But a 1907 Crash Signal Is Back

The S&P 500 has gained 12.65% in 2026 and closed Friday at 7,711.75. A Wall Street Journal column argues the closest match for today’s trading frenzy is not 1999. It is 1901.

That boom ended in the Panic of 1907, with columnist Jason Zweig arguing the danger was never expensive stocks. It was borrowed money and trading that felt like gambling.

The Numbers That Rhyme With 1901

Zweig leans on one figure, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) turnover reached 319% in 1901. The entire market changed hands roughly every four months.

Today in 1901, the yearly NYSE turnover hits record 319% showing short-term investing isnt new, as investors held shares for avg of 15 wks

— MoAF (@FinanceMuseum) December 31, 2010

Bucket shops supplied the rest, letting small customers bet, at heavy leverage, on whether a stock would tick up or down. No shares ever changed owners. That bet is recognizable in the current market.

Same-day options made up 66.2% of all S&P 500 options volume in July, an all-time high, Cboe reported. Prediction market platforms widened their catalogues again, from token prices to sporting-event phrases.

Borrowing has also kept pace, with margin debt reaching $1.42 trillion in July, according to Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) filings. A year earlier the figure was $1.02 trillion.

BREAKING: US margin debt dropped -$85 billion in July, to $1.42 trillion, the largest monthly decline on record.This also marks the first monthly decrease since March.By comparison, the 2nd-biggest monthly drop was recorded in January 2022 at -$80 billion, just as the bear… pic.twitter.com/scrhStGdJd

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 18, 2026

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1907 Broke on Liquidity, Not Valuation

The trigger looked small, where two speculators failed to corner United Copper stock in October 1907. The damage followed, with runs hitting trust companies, lightly regulated lenders that kept about 5% of deposits in cash. National banks kept 25%.

Wall Street collapsed in October 1907 not because banks ran out of money, but because the shadow banking system had no lender of last resort.It started with a failed corner on United Copper stock by F. Augustus Heinze and Charles W. Morse. When the corner collapsed, the margin… pic.twitter.com/I1jEatIeJi

— MD (@MDKASHIF_9) August 21, 2026

Then money vanished. Call money rates ran from 9.5% to 70%, and to 100% two days later. J.P. Morgan hauled cash to the exchange loan post to keep trading alive. Congress created the Federal Reserve six years later.

The Dow lost 40.9% from its December 1906 peak to the November 1907 bottom, a National Bureau of Economic Research study found.

Valuation drives most earlier bubble comparisons. The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio sits near 42, against a long-run average of 17.4, and just under its December 1999 record. Zweig’s warning is quieter and harder to hedge.

Crypto shares the same funding pipes. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $78,618 and has tracked the S&P 500 through past risk shocks.

Cash looks like dead weight while markets climb. It turns into leverage the moment everybody else needs it.