This Week’s Big Events Are Priced In for Stocks: Will Bitcoin Agree?

Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole Friday. Equity strategists expect little market reaction to either event, but crypto analysts disagree on Bitcoin’s next move.

On CNBC’s Halftime Report, Gilman Hill Asset Management CEO Jenny Harrington argued neither event would move stocks. She said earnings growth, not Nvidia’s print or Fed rhetoric, drives this year’s rally.

The Case for a Crypto Reaction Already Underway

Bitcoin does not need Friday’s speech, or Wednesday’s Nvidia print, to gauge where liquidity stands, according to some analysts. The Treasury already expanded its bond buybacks last week, pulling long-end yields lower and pushing crypto sharply higher.

Bernstein senior analyst Gautam Chhugani called that reaction a historical pattern, not a one-off event.

Bitcoin historically has had a positive reaction to liquidity expansion.

Gautam Chhugani, senior analyst, Bernstein

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made a similar case last week. He told investors that avoiding risk assets after the Treasury’s move would be a mistake. If liquidity drives this rally, Warsh’s tone on Friday may matter less than what the Treasury already did.

Why Others See More Room for Bitcoin to Move

Not every desk agrees the reaction has run its course. In a note before this week’s rally, QCP Capital described the setup as balanced rather than directional. The firm said Bitcoin’s range remained tested, but not broken.

TD Securities Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Oscar Munoz sees the picture differently. He argues Warsh’s limited communication since May has hurt the Fed’s credibility. That skepticism gives Friday’s speech real room to move markets.

Crypto also carries a variable stocks do not share. Warsh divested a personal portfolio of blockchain holdings before his confirmation. He also appointed a Bitcoin investor to co-lead a Fed task force. Any comment on digital asset policy could move crypto independent of the rate debate.

The equity case for shrugging off Nvidia and the Fed rests on earnings math investors have already locked in. Crypto lacks that anchor. That gap is why the priced-in argument travels less cleanly between the two markets.