Cameco Stock Is Down 42% From Its Record. Here's How I'd Buy It Around Its Oct. 30 Report.

Shares of uranium miner Cameco (NYSE:CCJ) ended trading on Oct. 23 at $78.60, their lowest close since September 2025. They dropped to a fresh 52-week low in trading that day.

At around $78 as I write, the stock has shed about 42% since Jan. 28, when it hit a record close of $134.09.

Uranium itself, though, is in solid shape. The long-term uranium price is the benchmark for the multiyear supply contracts most of the industry runs on. It was $96.50 a pound at the end of September -- above the $95 peak it reached in 2007 and held into early 2008.

With the company's third-quarter report due before the opening bell on Friday, Oct. 30, is this a buying opportunity? I think the sell-off shows the market's jitters more than anything wrong with Cameco. But the valuation still deserves a close look.

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A broad sell-off

The selling has been broad. Nuclear shares dropped together in mid-October after a hotter-than-expected September inflation report on Oct. 14 lifted the odds of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Cameco lost around 5% that day alone.

After all, higher rates tend to hit hardest the stocks whose largest profits are years away. And much of the nuclear group fits that description.

Cameco's own numbers haven't helped. Its second-quarter non-IFRS (adjusted) earnings per share fell 75% year over year. (Cameco reports in Canadian dollars.)

But most of the drop comes from two things that say little about uranium demand. A year earlier, a two-reactor project in the Czech Republic added around US$170 million to Cameco's share of Westinghouse's revenue, and this bump didn't repeat. And Cameco delivered 7.1 million pounds of uranium in the second quarter, off 18%, partly because it's deliberately committing less supply in 2026.

Cameco's prices lag the market

Showing how slowly the market's strength reaches Cameco's income statement, its average realized uranium price was US$67.79 a pound in the second quarter, up 18% from US$57.35 a year earlier. It had risen steadily before then, to US$65.53 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and US$66.21 in the first quarter of 2026. Still, it is almost $29 under the long-term price. Put simply, lots of Cameco's contracts were signed while uranium was cheaper, so higher market prices feed into its realized price only gradually, as older contracts roll off.

I'd say this gap is the most interesting thing about the stock. Cameco has contracts for average deliveries of more than 28 million pounds a year over the next five years, with commitments under this average in 2029 and 2030. The later years leave room to sign new volume at today's far higher prices.

"We continue to be patient and selective in committing supply," CEO Tim Gitzel said in the company's second-quarter earnings release.

What does the Oct. 30 report have to show?

Third quarters can look light for Cameco. Last year, it delivered just 6.1 million pounds in the third quarter, and adjusted net earnings were only C$32 million.

But the full-year path matters more. Cameco expects to deliver 29 million to 32 million pounds of uranium in 2026, and it delivered 14.9 million in the first half. Management also lifted its 2026 realized-price forecast in July to C$91 to C$96 a pound, up from C$85 to C$89.

A third-quarter price in this range, with deliveries on track, should show the plan is holding.

Of course, there's also Westinghouse, the reactor firm Cameco owns 49% of alongside Brookfield Renewable Partners. Westinghouse confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO) in July, and it's reportedly seeking a valuation of over $50 billion.

At that level, Cameco's stake would be worth around $24.5 billion on paper, versus about $34 billion for all of Cameco at today's share price. An update on the IPO's timing could matter as much as the uranium numbers.

The stock still isn't cheap

Even after the fall, Cameco trades at around 40 times next year's expected earnings. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) trades at about 19 times forward earnings in comparison.

That's about twice the market's valuation, and it's a steep price for earnings that swing so much from quarter to quarter.

In the end, I think the sell-off says more about interest rates than about Cameco. The long-term price it signs contracts against sits above its 2007 peak, and Cameco's own realized price keeps inching toward it. At about 40 times next year's earnings, though, the stock isn't a bargain, and the Oct. 30 report could easily look soft on paper. I'd consider buying shares in stages around the report rather than all at once ahead of it.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cameco. The Motley Fool recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.