GE Vernova Stock Fell 11% in a Day. Here's What I Think It Could Be Worth by 2030.

GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) shares had a tough week. The maker of gas turbines and grid equipment fell about 11% on Thursday, Oct. 22, alone. As I write, the stock sits near $825, about 30% under the $1,174.86 it closed at on June 30.

The business, though, keeps getting bigger. GE Vernova finished June with a $176 billion backlog. And in the second quarter, its non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew 62% year over year.

Where could the stock be in 2030? Running management's own targets forward, I figure around $1,100 a share by late 2030. That'd be a good gain, but still under the June record.

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The backlog keeps growing

Showing how much demand GE Vernova sits on, its total backlog has risen from $150 billion at the end of 2025 to $163 billion after the first quarter and $176 billion after the second. That's almost four times the revenue management expects this year.

In December 2025, management said it expected backlog to hit around $200 billion by the end of 2028. On the second-quarter earnings call in July, CEO Scott Strazik said the company was on pace to get there in 2027 -- a year early.

Gas turbines fueled much of this growth. GE Vernova's gas equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements (agreements that save a spot in its production schedule) hit 116 gigawatts in the second quarter, up from 83 gigawatts at the end of 2025.

Customers are paying more for these spots, too. Gas equipment orders in the first half of 2026 were priced over 20% above those booked in the last three months of 2025.

"We had a strong first half and now have agreements signed into '31," Strazik said on the call.

And AI data centers aren't the full story. Strazik said around 80% of the gas gigawatts under contract are for traditional customers, and about 20% for data centers.

What could GE Vernova earn by 2030?

The bigger swing factor is margin. GE Vernova's adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.4% in 2025. It rose to 10.5% in the first half of 2026, with 11.3% in the second quarter, and management is guiding for 12% to 14% for the full year.

Management's multi-year outlook calls for $56 billion of revenue and a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, a goal it raised in January to include grid equipment supplier Prolec GE. Together, those come to about $11.2 billion of adjusted EBITDA, more than three times the $3.2 billion the business posted in 2025. That means margins need to keep rising at around the rate they have over the last year.

After that, I'd assume adjusted EBITDA climbs about 10% a year through 2030 at a flat 20% margin. That seems reasonable to me, because management is working to boost yearly gas turbine output from 24 gigawatts in 2028 to 30 gigawatts in 2030. This puts 2030 adjusted EBITDA at around $13.6 billion.

Of course, this might prove conservative, as management said in December 2025 that GE Vernova is positioned to deliver "substantially higher returns beyond 2028."

Today's price already assumes a lot

At around $825 a share, GE Vernova's market cap is about $217 billion, or about 19 times the adjusted EBITDA management targets for 2028. The stock also costs about 34 times earnings on 2027 estimates -- a premium price.

If investors pay that same multiple of around 19 times adjusted EBITDA in late 2030, the company would be worth about $263 billion. GE Vernova also keeps cutting its share count. It bought back 4.3 million shares in the first half of 2026. If buybacks trim the count around 2% a year from about 266 million shares outstanding at the end of June, the stock would be worth about $1,070 a share, or about $1,100 in round numbers.

From about $825, hitting $1,100 in late 2030 means about 7% a year, plus a small dividend.

The estimate also relies on factories ramping as planned, and the wind unit is still expected to lose around $400 million on an EBITDA basis this year. The third-quarter report, due before the market opens on Wednesday, Oct. 28, should show if gas turbine output hit the 20-gigawatt annual rate management expected for the quarter.

In the end, I think GE Vernova's business can keep delivering, and the stock can probably beat today's price by 2030. But around 7% a year isn't much of a payoff for a growth stock that can fall 11% in a day. I'd get more interested under about $740, where the same $1,100 forecast would mean about 10% a year.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends GE Vernova. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.