Should You Invest in a Bond ETF Right Now? Here's What History Suggests.

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF and its peers might be more appealing today than meets the eye.

  • The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is best for investors with a higher risk tolerance.

  • High starting yields provide a valuable clue that there's value to be in bonds today.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF ›

Often perceived as a docile, shelter-from-the-storm destination, the bond market isn't for the faint of heart these days. The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields are residing around the highest levels in 24 years.

With the U.S. national debt standing at $40.3 trillion as of Oct. 7, or roughly seven times Nvidia's market capitalization, bond investors are demanding more compensation to buy Uncle Sam's bonds. Ten-year Treasuries auctioned on Oct. 7 were sold with a yield of 5.3%, the highest since 2000.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

"Yield" written on white blocks stacked on gold coins.

High bond yields may be more positive than investors realize. Image source: Getty Images.

All that sounds ominous for fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT) and the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ: BND). But, believe it or not, now may not be the time to ignore these bond ETFs.

High yields may be enticing

As with dividend yields and stock prices, bond prices and yields move inversely. So when yields rise, bond or fixed income ETF prices decline. That explains why these iShares and Vanguard ETFs highlighted here are off 8.4% and 2.6%, respectively, year to date.

Those slumps, coupled with turbulence in the bond market, may suggest that these fixed-income ETFs and their peers should be abandoned today, but history tells a different story. Investors typically buy bonds for income, and by purchasing high-yield bonds or fixed-income funds today, market participants are locking in higher income.

Put simply, an investor purchasing a 10-year Treasury bond today with a yield of 5.3% locks in that rate. Still, if Treasury prices rebound in a few months, investors buying the 10-year bonds at lower yields get, well, lower yields and thus less income. That's one reason why the 5.6% 30-day yield found on this iShares ETF is potentially appealing today.

Another reason is that higher starting yields can portend better long-term performances for bonds. Obviously, bonds and ETFs such as these iShares and Vanguard products are long-term instruments, implying that today's high yields aren't as off-putting as they appear at first glance.

Income and value

Admittedly, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but there are some similarities to buying bonds when yields are high and buying stocks after prices have materially pulled back. Think of it as fixed-income value investing. Bond prices slump, and they may offer value, all while investors are being compensated for perceived risk.

Some experts agree that today's elevated bond yields are indeed value signals. That's one potential positive. Another is that high bond yields bolster investors' chances of beating inflation.

Even if inflation declined to the Federal Reserve's desired goal of around 2% today, that's still well above the 1.1% dividend yield on the S&P 500, indicating that the income offered up by a basic equity gauge isn't enough to keep pace with rising consumer costs. That enhances the allure of the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF's 30-day SEC yield of 5.1%.

Should you buy stock in Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $380,795!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,390,634!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 946% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 215% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of October 13, 2026.

Todd Shriber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
US September CPI Preview: Inflation May Heat Up, How Will US Stocks, Dollar and Gold React?The U.S. will release its September CPI data on Wednesday (October 14) Eastern Time, which will be one of the most important inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28
Author  TradingKey
7 hours ago
The U.S. will release its September CPI data on Wednesday (October 14) Eastern Time, which will be one of the most important inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 27-28
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 13, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 13, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
8 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 13, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
Bitcoin Stages V-Shaped Reversal, Surges to Reclaim $83,000 LevelImpacted by a slump in South Korean stocks, Bitcoin prices dropped, but subsequently staged a strong rebound to recoup most of their losses.On October 13, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a shar
Author  TradingKey
8 hours ago
Impacted by a slump in South Korean stocks, Bitcoin prices dropped, but subsequently staged a strong rebound to recoup most of their losses.On October 13, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a shar
placeholder
Yen inches toward 159 as Tokyo reopens — where is the line in the sand before 160?USD/JPY traded around 158.5 on Tuesday after Monday's 158.60 close — the highest since September 24 — as Tokyo reopened and the market re-focused on two dates dominating the yen calendar: the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Bangkok on October 15 and the Bank of Japan's October 30 decision. Here are the three forces leaning on the yen, the positioning picture, and the scenarios into Wednesday's US CPI.
Author  Irene Q.
10 hours ago
USD/JPY traded around 158.5 on Tuesday after Monday's 158.60 close — the highest since September 24 — as Tokyo reopened and the market re-focused on two dates dominating the yen calendar: the G20 finance ministers' meeting in Bangkok on October 15 and the Bank of Japan's October 30 decision. Here are the three forces leaning on the yen, the positioning picture, and the scenarios into Wednesday's US CPI.
placeholder
Copper hits a two-week high on a Codelco supply halt — silver slips below $61 as CPI loomsLME three-month copper rose 0.56% to $14,618.50 a tonne on Monday — a two-week high — after a landslide at Codelco's El Teniente mine killed two workers and halted part of the operation; COMEX copper gained 1.04% to $6.7615/lb before easing back on Tuesday. Silver, meanwhile, slipped below $61 as precious metals marked time ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Here are the levels, the supply story and the scenarios.
Author  Irene Q.
10 hours ago
LME three-month copper rose 0.56% to $14,618.50 a tonne on Monday — a two-week high — after a landslide at Codelco's El Teniente mine killed two workers and halted part of the operation; COMEX copper gained 1.04% to $6.7615/lb before easing back on Tuesday. Silver, meanwhile, slipped below $61 as precious metals marked time ahead of Wednesday's US CPI. Here are the levels, the supply story and the scenarios.
goTop
quote