18 Launches Down, 9 More to Go for Rocket Lab. But That's Not the Big Story.

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Rocket Lab has launched 18 times so far this year.

  • By the end of 2026, it may reach 27 launches -- six more than last year.

  • It is also expanding its satellite business with the acquisition of Iridium Communications.

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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) is on a roll. On Friday, Sept. 25, the American-New Zealand space stock launched its 97th rocket, its 94th successful rocket, its 18th launch (both absolute and successful) of 2026, and its 13th mission for key Japanese customer Synspective. As the company noted:

And Rocket Lab isn't finished yet -- not even for this year.

11.25.2024 Close-up view of engine firing at Electron rocket launch from LC-1 in New Zealand.

Image source: Rocket Lab.

An indispensable partner

Each time Rocket Lab launches a rocket for Synspective, it adds one more high-resolution, all-weather, day-and-night imaging synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite to Synspective's constellation, providing a capability that rival satellite companies such as Planet Labs and Starlink can't (yet) match. With 13 launches now conducted for the customer and Rocket Lab being Synspective's sole launch provider, Synspective's satellite fleet currently totals 13.

That's not even half the work Rocket Lab has promised to do, though. Announcing the successful launch last month, Rocket Lab pointed out that "another 14 launches remain on schedule to deliver the rest of Synspective's constellation to space by the end of the decade." Just five days later, Rocket Lab said that Synspective had hired it to launch 20 more satellites!

Add it up, and Rocket Lab is now barely a quarter through this contract. After launching 13 rockets for Synspective, it still has 34 more to launch.

18 down, 9 more to go

It will take some time for Rocket Lab to work its way through all these missions. Nearer term, the company has a more modest goal: growing from 21 rocket launches in 2025 to (at least) 27 this year.

Rocket Lab hasn't stated a specific goal for the year, mind you. But according to NextSpaceflight.com, the company has nine more launches on its manifest this year. These include:

  • Three launches for BlackSky (NYSE: BKSY), adding Gen-3 Earth observation satellites to orbit.
  • Three launches for iQPS, another big Japanese customer, which, like Synspective, is building an SAR satellite constellation.
  • And one launch each for HawkEye 360, for Capella Space (yet another SAR launch), and for NASA (LOXSAT 1, demonstrating in-orbit refueling technologies).

Exciting times for Rocket Lab

With so many launches on schedule (and 20 more Synspective launches that aren't even scheduled yet), you might think that Rocket Lab's accelerating launch cadence is the biggest story for this space stock this year. After all, a jump from 21 launches last year to 27 this year implies a nearly 30% increase in revenue for Rocket Lab's launch services business -- or more if Rocket Lab adds even more launches between now and December.

But the launch story is not the biggest news for the company.

The bigger story is that Rocket Lab's $8 billion proposed acquisition of satellite communications heavyweight Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM), announced back in June, is on track and making progress. On Sept. 24, Iridium shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve the buyout, under which Rocket Lab will acquire all Iridium shares outstanding for $27 in cash plus $27 in Rocket Lab stock.

Rocket Lab already had $2.3 billion socked away to pay for the cash portion of the purchase. On Sept. 15, it raised a further $1.9 billion through stock sales to ensure it would have the necessary $4 billion. Now, assuming regulators approve the merger, Rocket Lab should be clear to conclude the deal by mid-2027.

What happens then?

Well, Iridium will presumably become the core of a new satellite communications business for Rocket Lab. With this piece in place, Rocket Lab will finally be a space company that "designs, builds, launches, and operates its own constellations" in orbit -- much like SpaceX, albeit at a much more accessible market capitalization (and without the burdensome addition of an artificial intelligence business tacked onto it).

And the best news of all: Bringing Iridium in-house will also make Rocket Lab instantly profitable and free cash flow positive -- two things that SpaceX is not.

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Rich Smith has positions in Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends BlackSky Technology and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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