Nebius Has $40 Billion of Customer Commitments. Most of It Comes From 2 Customers.

Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) says it has more than $40 billion in contracted revenue from investment-grade customers. The two it names are Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META).

For scale, the artificial intelligence (AI) cloud company's revenue for all of 2025 was around $530 million. Put another way, Nebius has signed up about 75 times its 2025 revenue. But how much of that rides on just two customers?

Most of it, by my count. And yet the signed part of that reliance worries me less than what the stock price assumes about the deals that come next.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Around $32 billion is firm

Nebius doesn't break down its commitments by customer. But its filings lay out every big contract.

Microsoft signed first, in September 2025, for around $17.4 billion of dedicated capacity through 2031, growing to about $19.4 billion if Microsoft buys extra services or capacity.

Meta followed in November with a five-year deal for around $3 billion. It came back in March with $12 billion of dedicated capacity beginning in early 2027. The March agreement includes up to $15 billion more, but Meta only pays it for capacity in certain clusters that Nebius doesn't sell to other customers.

Add up just the firm parts, and the two companies account for around $32 billion, or roughly four-fifths of the $40 billion. Counting every "up to" amount would bring the total to about $49 billion.

Nebius' backlog shows the same concentration. Its remaining performance obligations (signed contract revenue it hasn't recognized yet) were around $21 billion at the end of 2025, when the Microsoft deal and Meta's first contract alone were worth about $20 billion. They surged to almost $34 billion at the end of March, the quarter Meta's $12 billion order was signed. Then they grew more slowly, to around $37.5 billion by June 30.

The last climb came without a fresh Microsoft or Meta deal. Nebius landed four second-quarter contracts averaging over $1 billion each, including deals with AI model makers Reflection and Cohere.

That said, the customer list is widening only slowly.

Revenue is concentrated, too. Three customers Nebius doesn't name made up 24%, 21%, and 14% of second-quarter revenue.

What if Microsoft or Meta pulls back?

For the money already signed, less than you might think. Nebius' annual report says Microsoft agreed to pay its fees whether or not it uses the capacity, including around $7 billion in upfront payments. Meta's first contract has the same wording.

Their main way out is Nebius' own failure. Each can cancel individual tranches if Nebius misses set delivery dates or repeatedly falls short on availability.

This puts most of the near-term risk on execution.

By August, Nebius had delivered every tranche of capacity under the Microsoft deal. Meta's $12 billion of dedicated capacity, though, is still being built on Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, and the March agreement includes discounted monthly fees for late delivery.

Meta's backstop also works in an odd direction. If demand for AI computing eased, Nebius would probably sell less of that cluster capacity to other customers, and Meta would have to buy more of it. A slowdown, in other words, could make Nebius more reliant on Meta, not less.

The contracts are collateral, too

Where the concentration arguably matters most is in how Nebius funds its expansion. In August, management reaffirmed its plan for $20 billion to $25 billion of capital spending in 2026. Meanwhile, just 36% of the $37.5 billion backlog is expected to become revenue over the 24 months ending June 2028 -- around $13.5 billion.

"We currently have approximately $40 billion of committed backlog that we can borrow against," CFO Dado Alonso said on the company's second-quarter earnings call in August.

Put another way, the Microsoft and Meta contracts are most of what Nebius can borrow against to keep building this fast.

With shares near $243 as of this writing, about 19% off their 52-week high, Nebius is worth about $64 billion. Its customer commitments, meanwhile, are about $40 billion of revenue spread across several years, not profit. I think the stock price assumes many more contracts like these are coming, and not just from Microsoft and Meta.

In the end, depending on two customers looks safer to me than that four-fifths share suggests, at least for the revenue already signed. But Nebius is valued for a far wider customer list than it has today. I'd rather wait for a few more quarters like the second one, when the backlog grew from new names, before paying this much for the stock.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.