ASML vs. Applied Digital: Which Is the Better Semiconductor Equipment Stock to Own for the Next 1 Year?

ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) and Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) are both benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) chip boom but in very different ways.

ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines are used to print the most complex circuits in leading-edge chips. As chipmakers pack more computing power into smaller chips, they need more precise manufacturing equipment. This trend has been driving demand for ASML's systems.

Applied Materials is also playing a crucial role in manufacturing advanced chips. The company supplies equipment used at several stages of chip production, including creating and shaping materials, checking for defects, and packaging chips together. Demand for these tools is rising as AI chips become more complex and increasingly use technologies such as high bandwidth memory and advanced packaging.

Let's see which stock is the better choice for investors right now.

Image source: Getty Images.

ASML's impressive demand visibility

ASML's position as the only commercial supplier of EUV lithography systems is well established. The company has exceptionally strong visibility into demand for 2027. Revenue rose by nearly 21.2% year over year to 9.3 billion euros in the second quarter of 2026 (ending June 28). The company expects net sales in 2026 to fall in the range of 43 billion to 45 billion euros.

Low-NA EUV, ASML's current-generation extreme ultraviolet lithography technology, is used to print extremely small circuit patterns on advanced chips. The company expects to increase low-NA EUV capacity by roughly 30% in 2027, from around 65 systems in 2026. Yet management says it is already close to receiving all the low-NA EUV orders it needs for 2027. This suggests production capacity, rather than a lack of customer orders, could become the bigger near-term constraint.

ASML's newer High-NA EUV technology is another potential growth driver. High-NA EUV allows chipmakers to print even smaller and more precise features on advanced chips than ASML's current EUV systems. This technology is already moving into commercial production.

Intel is using High-NA EUV on selected layers of chips made with its Intel 18A manufacturing process. The company says it has already begun shipping the first high-volume logic product manufactured using High-NA EUV.

Applied Materials has multiple AI-powered growth drivers

Applied Materials is particularly well-positioned in some of the fastest-growing areas of semiconductor equipment spending. The company says that leading-edge chip manufacturing, DRAM memory, and advanced packaging are driving roughly 80% of the growth in wafer fabrication equipment spending.

Financial results were also impressive. The company's revenue jumped 25% year over year to $9.1 billion, while generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) earnings per share rose 43% year over year to $3.17 in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending July 26). Management also expects advanced packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in calendar 2026.

Hence, Applied Materials is benefiting not only from customers making more chips but also from the increasing complexity of AI chips, which require more manufacturing steps.

However, investor expectations also seem to have risen sharply. Shares of Applied Materials have soared by nearly 89.4%, while ASML stock is up by roughly 65.6% so far in 2026 (as of Sept. 28). Applied Materials' shares also fell more than 5% after its third-quarter earnings report, even though the company reported strong growth and issued revenue guidance above Wall Street's expectations.

Reuters attributed the decline to already-high investor expectations. This suggests the market may now require more than just strong results from the company.

China creates different risks for the two companies

Both technology companies face restrictions on selling certain advanced chipmaking equipment to China, but the risks differ significantly for each.

ASML expects China to account for around 20% of its total 2026 sales. China has also started producing its own immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, an older but still widely used technology for printing circuit patterns on chips. However, Reuters reported that these systems are still being tested and remain behind ASML's technology and reliability.

Applied Materials also has significant exposure to China. China accounted for 28% of the company's total revenue in the third quarter. The company also faces a more immediate competitive threat from Chinese equipment makers in some of its core markets.

Reuters reported that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been testing equipment from Chinese chip-equipment maker Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment at their factories in China. Chinese suppliers are making progress in areas such as etch and deposition, where Applied Materials also competes.

Hence, ASML could eventually face greater competition in DUV lithography, but China still lacks a commercial alternative to its advanced EUV systems. Applied Materials faces a more immediate threat, since Chinese suppliers are already gaining ground in some of the etch and deposition markets where it competes.

Which stock is a better pick over the next year?

ASML is trading at roughly 30.8 times forward one-year earnings, compared with about 27.4 for Applied Materials (as of Sept. 28). Yet analysts expect the consensus EPS to grow roughly 35% year over year for ASML and almost 44.3% for Applied Materials in the next fiscal year. So Applied Materials appears to be offering faster expected growth at the lower valuation multiple.

Hence, for the next year, Applied Materials seems to be a better pick. ASML offers stronger demand visibility and a harder-to-replicate moat, but Applied Materials' lower valuation and faster expected earnings growth make it a more attractive short-term pick. But investor expectations are already high, so Applied Materials will need to keep delivering strong results to see robust share price returns in the next year.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Applied Materials, and Intel. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.