Here's What a $10,000 Investment in Nvidia Stock Could Be Worth in 10 Years

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has been one of the best investments of the past decade, with a gain of over 13,500%. While a repeat of that performance is mathematically and economically impossible for a company that is now the world's largest, it still appears to have strong upside potential over the decade ahead. At the current stock price of around $230, with $10,000, investors could purchase around 43 shares.

Nvidia is the premier player in AI infrastructure, and there is little to suggest that any of its rivals will knock it off its perch. The company has a dominant position in AI training, where its graphics processing units (GPUs) are the primary chips used to train AI models. It has a wide moat in this area because most foundational AI code was written on its CUDA software platform and optimized for its chips. In addition, it is even better positioned to compete in the growing inference market following its "acquisition" of Groq and its language processing units (LPUs).

Today, Nvidia is much more than just a GPU company, with CPUs, complete supercomputing architectures, networking components, and software layers that make it the ultimate AI infrastructure company. Where AI spending goes is where Nvidia stock will go, and the runway for both looks long.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

The road to $1,200 a share

Demand for AI infrastructure remains intense, and Nvidia's leadership forecasts that its revenue will surge by 70% in its fiscal 2028 (which ends in January 2028), despite supply constraints. While the absolute numbers are staggering, that sales growth forecast is backed by the strong returns that hyperscalers and neoclouds are seeing on their data center investments. While growth will eventually slow from its torrid pace, it should remain fairly robust.

To estimate how Nvidia could grow over the next 10 years, I have modeled its revenue growth to gradually slow until its fiscal 2033, after which I keep it at 15%. I base my model on its expenses growing 11% sequentially also until then, and then I slow sequential expense growth to 7%. I also have gross margins that gradually step down to approximately 70% and then remain there, and I apply a 15% tax rate to its operating income. And I have the company reducing its share count (currently 24.3 billion) by 2% a year through stock buybacks -- a reasonable capital return strategy given its strong free cash flow.

All this would lead to Nvidia generating over $4.6 trillion in revenue in its fiscal 2036 and adjusted earnings of around $1.9 trillion, or $80.50 per share.

Below is a simple model of what its revenue and earnings growth could look like. All figures below are, naturally, projections.

Data source: Author's projections.

From there, I would apply a 15-times forward P/E multiple to the stock, which is around where its multiple is today based on fiscal 2028 analyst estimates. The result gives a value for the stock of around $1,200. That would be more than a fivefold return, turning a $10,000 investment made today into a position worth more than $52,000 10 years from now.

If these projections play out, Nvidia will be a top AI stock to own over the next decade as well.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.